Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Vini_Vidi_Vici · Oct 31, 2012

jackliu said:
Beautiful... I think Lockheed Martin might be sweating right now. They no longer have monopoly on medium size 5th gen jet anymore.

The fundamental strategy to US weapon development is to be at least a generation ahead of its competitors. F22 had already matured and serviced for many years, despite slowdown caused by the slack from the ease-off of the Cold War. F35 should have already entered service 7-8 years ago, if Pentagon had the drive like they did during Cold War.

Big companies like Boeing and Lockheed always work on at least two generations at the same time. By the time YF-22 was chosen to be the official F22, groundwork on the successor had already begun.

It's no brainer that within the next 2-3 years, we will began to hear about the 6th generation plane. There will be coverage on it like there was for F22 program.

China is doing a great job, catching up from a 2 generation gap (J8&JH7 Vs. F22) to only a half generation gap. But it is still lagging behind. Catching up is easy, but surpassing is much harder.

Like I have mentioned before in other posts, US has a much bigger weapon industry. It is much more advanced and much more experienced. The biggest difference is that it's commercially driven, making them much more competitive and competent. The R&D sector is almost bigger than the manufacturing sector. When Chinese want to develop something, it's usually done purely by a government institute. For example, when a fly-by-wire system/software is needed for J-##, a team of academics will be formed. They will stick together and produce the software. But when the software is finalized and enter service, very few of the academics will stay and usually move onto some other projects. Another problem is the size of those teams, they're usually pretty small, consisting of one or two professors and the rest are just grad students. But in the US, it's done by those fortune 500 companies. They have armies of programmers and software engineers. Just like a commercial software, even after entering service, they're still constantly been upgraded. Lockheed Martin alone produces 4x more lines of software codes than Microsoft every year.

Yes, China did a great job. But to surpass the US counterpart, they have to privatize those big weapon companies. Privatization will increase competition and competency. It will elevate their level of professionalism.

The bottomline is, SkunkWorks and PhantomWorks are not sweating.

jackliu · Oct 31, 2012

Vini_Vidi_Vici said:
The fundamental strategy to US weapon development is to be at least a generation ahead of its competitors. F22 had already matured and serviced for many years, despite slowdown caused by the slack from the ease-off of the Cold War. F35 should have already entered service 7-8 years ago, if Pentagon had the drive like they did during Cold War.

Big companies like Boeing and Lockheed always work on at least two generations at the same time. By the time YF-22 was chosen to be the official F22, groundwork on the successor had already begun.

It's no brainer that within the next 2-3 years, we will began to hear about the 6th generation plane. There will be coverage on it like there was for F22 program.

China is doing a great job, catching up from a 2 generation gap (J8&JH7 Vs. F22) to only a half generation gap. But it is still lagging behind. Catching up is easy, but surpassing is much harder.

Like I have mentioned before in other posts, US has a much bigger weapon industry. It is much more advanced and much more experienced. The biggest difference is that it's commercially driven, making them much more competitive and competent. The R&D sector is almost bigger than the manufacturing sector. When Chinese want to develop something, it's usually done purely by a government institute. For example, when a fly-by-wire system/software is needed for J-##, a team of academics will be formed. They will stick together and produce the software. But when the software is finalized and enter service, very few of the academics will stay and usually move onto some other projects. Another problem is the size of those teams, they're usually pretty small, consisting of one or two professors and the rest are just grad students. But in the US, it's done by those fortune 500 companies. They have armies of programmers and software engineers. Just like a commercial software, even after entering service, they're still constantly been upgraded. Lockheed Martin alone produces 4x more lines of software codes than Microsoft every year.

Yes, China did a great job. But to surpass the US counterpart, they have to privatize those big weapon companies. Privatization will increase competition and competency. It will elevate their level of professionalism.

The bottomline is, SkunkWorks and PhantomWorks are not sweating.

I never dispute that US's weapon industry is in trouble technologically. What I am trying to say is for F-35, they will have competition, simply because the jet itself have not yet even began deployment let alone flight testing. I do expect F-35 to be ready before F-60, but F-60 won't be far behind, so there will be at least 10-15 years where both weapon system with similar ability will overlap, and given the price tag of F-60, which we expect will be a lot cheap than F-35, Lockheed will feel the competition for sure.

As for 6th gen development, this is a moot point, as I have said 5th gen medium class jet fighter have not even enter service yet, so what is the point of developing 6th gen so soon? Even if US have the ability, which I have no doubt they do, but why would they cannibalizing their own merchandise!!!!! Why would Lockheed spend 300 billion and 10 years on F-35 then immediately producing 6th gen which will render 5th gen obsolete? While I have no double US and China will be working on the technology of 6th soon, but the 5th gen market will remain mainstream for the next 20 years or more. And this is where competition is.

As for competition within manufacturing, I agree with you... but you do know the existence of F-60 is DUE to competition in the first place right? SAC and CAC are in a heated battle right now, as a result of that, both side will do whatever it takes to win government projects so they are fighting each other to come up with good design.

I don't think this is any less significant than the battle between Lockeen and Boeing.

kwaigonegin · Oct 31, 2012

jackliu said:
I never dispute that US's weapon industry is in trouble technologically. What I am trying to say is for F-35, they will have competition, simply because the jet itself have not yet even began deployment let alone flight testing. I do expect F-35 to be ready before F-60, but F-60 won't be far behind, so there will be at least 10-15 years where both weapon system with similar ability will overlap, and given the price tag of F-60, which we expect will be a lot cheap than F-35, Lockheed will feel the competition for sure.

As for 6th gen development, this is a moot point, as I have said 5th gen medium class jet fighter have not even enter service yet, so what is the point of developing 6th gen so soon? Even if US have the ability, which I have no doubt they do, but why would they cannibalizing their own merchandise!!!!! Why would Lockheed spend 300 billion and 10 years on F-35 then immediately producing 6th gen which will render 5th gen obsolete? While I have no double US and China will be working on the technology of 6th soon, but the 5th gen market will remain mainstream for the next 20 years or more. And this is where competition is.

As for competition within manufacturing, I agree with you... but you do know the existence of F-60 is DUE to competition in the first place right? SAC and CAC are in a heated battle right now, as a result of that, both side will do whatever it takes to win government projects so they are fighting each other to come up with good design.

I don't think this is any less significant than the battle between Lockeen and Boeing.

funny thing is everyone is right YET everyone is 'butthurting' and arguing because of a misunderstood wording....

when Jack says sweating I think he meant sweat as in 'economic/market competition' sense due to potential export sales of this new aircraft... when Nike and vida-vidi etc hears sweating they thought Jack meant China's new toy can whip Lockheed's projects and got all offended.

Zahid · Oct 31, 2012

Congratulations China in general, & SAC in particular.

Fellow posters have discussed about the possible sale of this wonderful looking plane to other countries. A couple have discussed Pakistan in this regard. My view is that PAF would like to get J31 based on the following:

1. I expect J31's powerplant to be WS13 which is the likely power plant for JF17 in the long term. Commonality of Engine (if & when it happens as I think it would), would make an interesting Hi-Lo mix of J31 & JF17.

2. Pakistan does need a counter to T50 that India would field in future.

3. Pakistan's economy is under-performing for the last few years, but I expect it to pick up Pace in the next 3 years. Even with all the problems, Pakistan's economy always grows. Pakistan probably would be able to afford this bird post 2020. A couple of squadrons would be enough I suppose.

plawolf · Oct 31, 2012

kwaigonegin said:
I'm still perplexed as to why SAC didn;t go for one piece canopy with plating to reduce signature and radar scatter.

This is only the first prototype, and it was pretty much entirely self-financed by SAC since the PLAAF were thoroughly unimpressed by their first attempt at a 5th gen. The use of a conventional two-piece canopy could thus be a result of cost cutting measures to make sure SAC did not break the bank building this birdy. If and when a buyer becomes interested and outside finance start flowing in, they can easily add all the bells and whistles later.

Another possibility is that the use of a two piece canopy is a deliberate choice, as a result of the greater structural integrity requirements a naval/carrier fighter would demand.

Naval, and especially carrier fighters have a much greater chance of bird strike than conventional land based fighters because seabirds like to follow ships around to both hitch a ride and also scavenge for scraps. In addition, sea birds tend to be significantly bigger than their land based kin, so if a bird strike does happen, a naval plane will get hit harder, and as such, need to be built tougher to survive it.

The higher strength requirement is pretty much the main reason why the F35 does not have a true single piece canopy, and instead have a big brace built in.

If the J31 is indeed intended as a carrier fighter as many of us believe, it too would have higher strength requirements for it's canopy (amongst many other things), which might be why they went with a two piece design.

plawolf · Oct 31, 2012

Bltizo said:
From that angle this plane looks so much like an F-22 it's hilarious.

Not bad haha.

Well, it looks like you guys have figured it out, the J31 is in fact the secret love child of the F22 and F35 (which also explains why the F35 has been getting more and more bloated ever since it first flew).

no_name · Oct 31, 2012

Vini_Vidi_Vici said:
The fundamental strategy to US weapon development is to be at least a generation ahead of its competitors.

The strategy of Chinese weapon development is to plan for one generation, developing one generation and equipping one generation simultaneously.

J-20 is the current developing generation, J-10 is the current equipping generation. This must mean that a 6th gen is already in concept stage, maybe even doing experimental works in some areas.

mack8 · Oct 31, 2012

plawolf said:
Well, it looks like you guys have figured it out, the J31 is in fact the secret love child of the F22 and F35 (which also explains why the F35 has been getting more and more bloated ever since it first flew).

You mean incest between F-22 and F-35 ? Well, as i understand it, ain't that uncommon in that part of the world

Subedei · Oct 31, 2012

Zahid said:
3. Pakistan's economy is under-performing for the last few years, but I expect it to pick up Pace in the next 3 years. Even with all the problems, Pakistan's economy always grows. Pakistan probably would be able to afford this bird post 2020. A couple of squadrons would be enough I suppose.

As, Jerry MaGuire said, "SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!"

Subedei · Oct 31, 2012

mack8 said:
You mean incest between F-22 and F-35 ? Well, as i understand it, ain't that uncommon in that part of the world

that ain't nice!

Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Vini_Vidi_Vici

Junior Member

jackliu

Banned Idiot

kwaigonegin

Colonel

Zahid

Junior Member

plawolf

Lieutenant General

plawolf

Lieutenant General

no_name

Colonel

mack8

Junior Member

Subedei

Banned Idiot

Subedei

Banned Idiot