Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

I like Deino's reasoning but not the attached thumbnail.

what if the JH-7B or JH-XX is actually a super hornet sized striker/fighter-bomber

plus Shengyang lower cost multirole J-XX and Chengdu single engined J-2X

that setup will fit in nicely

paintgun said:

what if the JH-7B or JH-XX is actually a super hornet sized striker/fighter-bomber

plus Shengyang lower cost multirole J-XX and Chengdu single engined J-2X

that setup will fit in nicely

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Not impossible, but methinks speculating beyond the idea of Deino's reasoning would be going into a realm which is way too murky and uncertain.
I'm not sure PLAAF will want an all 5th gen fleet eventually either. Form a "high" of J-20 and stealthy strikers and then a mainstay of J-10s should be very formidable and more realistic than replacing current and future legions of J-10s with single engined J-2X/chinese JSFs.

I also wonder how J-11 will fit in with all this -- eventually SAC will have to stop producing the flanker platform (J-11B/BS) for the PLAAF and PLANAF (J-15 will continue for a while I think) and I imagine they will have a fighter follow on.
CAC have their work sussed -- J-10A/B production will continue for a good many years, and they have JF-17 and J-20 to keep them busy and pumping in a cylinders. J-2X is there waiting in the wings.
SAC on the other hand, seems to me is only surviving due to flankers, and despite the improvement of J-11Bs over previous PLAAF flankers, I think they can still only have so many of this potent but aging design in service -- they are really a supplement to existing flankers and not as great an improvement like what the Su-35 is to the VVS flankers. SAC can still probably squeeze out some life out of flankers in the J-16/strike J-11BS and J-11B/BS upgrades, but they'll need something else to interest the PLAAF and to keep themselves busy.
And that is where "J-19" comes in. I don't think J-20 will replace existing PLAAF flankers on a one to one basis, but who's to say SAC's multirole 4th gen fighter, if it's cheaper but uses the same engines (logistics!) while providing less capable "4S", cannot help make up heavy 5th gen numbers, while giving SAC something to do.

future is in restructuring of the whole industry. xian, sac and cac can't all survive and be profitable and successful on their own. merging sac and xian would perhaps help their profitability.

also, key is in lowering the overall models of planes in service. right now, without subvariants, there are: j7, j8, jh7, h6, j10, q5 and j11/su30 serving. that's seven different types of combat planes and 4 different types of fighter.

j10 variants should be quite capable of replacing all the j7s and q5s. j11s are replacing j8s as it is. h6 soldiers on as it is quite unique plane.
but in 10 years time -
j20 should replace the j11 and any leftover j8.
j10b/c should replace any leftover j7 (don't think there will be any q5s left)
a new heavy striker should start replacing both the su30 and jh7 and perhaps some h6 variants (though in very small numbers as it might be just entering service in 2020.)
flanker will soldier on in j15 variant as probably the next gen carrier borne plane wont be ready by 2020.

so in 2020-2025 timeframe there should be just four different combat plane types, three of them fighter capable, one of them carrier borne. THAT would be efficient.

seems like we all can agree that there are many platforms under development by various design bureaus in their respective companies, but not that many will eventually enter service into PLA

good point in bringing the J-10 into this Blitzo, we (i) tend to forget how new this bird actually is in this stealth era, and i also agree, SAC will milk Flanker design till the last drop (replacing them (and also J-8s) probably by 1-to-1 basis with newer variants) and start a new pipeline with J-16 (Silent SinoFlanker), which i think is the one getting revealed this year

J-16 or J-19, we will have to wait until it comes out, but i don't think they will launch both

speculating is fun eh

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Centrist said:

Hey guys, Huitong updated his page. Clearly he believes that the photos are showing the JH-7B, not the J-19. So China's semi-stealth striker may be flying in a few months

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Not sure about that -- J-19 will definitely be flying late this year or early next but we have nothing on this JH-7B or JH-XX... I don't think there is anything to suggest it is a SAC/XAC project as of yet, and it sounds like SAC still has their J-19, J-16 and possibly even J-17 still going. But we are definitely in for an interesting few years. I don't think anyone before 2010 would have dared to say china could have multiple stealth aircraft programs going on at the same time.

I also agree that model is probably showing JH-7B, or at least a project by XAC. You can see a model of H-6K in the background...

Bltizo said:

Well if PLAAF committed to a plane then there's a buyer for said plane... so obviously the program will keep going. If no one is committed then you won't get very far.
I'm not quite sure how that's a reply to my post.

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The J-20 prototype was assembled around this time last year, and quite a few big shots went to Chengdu to see the prototype. Shengyang's bird is said to have been assembled, but so far we hear no words of big shots going to Shengyang to look at the plane. This is a pretty clear indication whether the project is a private pursue.

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So this was posted by EAgle over at CDF... again... JH-7B? Or is it a CAD of a different, real aircraft?

Either way, the plot is thickening... the diagram seems to have cut most of the front of the plane off, and the weapons bay looks like its holding the tail section of 4 large bombs, 500 kg class I think. Not a bad payload -- four 500kg PGMs and the two side bays for SRAAMs. Eagle also says a new engine called "WS-17" will be built for this striker.