Self Propelled Gun/Rocket Launcher

Blitzo

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The range on your image are interesting they are different than the one in Arabic that I found.

I also this a rough image measurement , the 750mm rocket should be around 7.5m long. 500km range make sense?
View attachment 121264

The one in arabic I believe is from 2022 (290km), and the one in simplified/traditional Chinese (400km) from memory was from 2021 if not earlier.

I suspect both were export numbers, but they further downgraded the 400km to "290km" for MTCR purposes.


If we are speculating as to what the true range of the PLA version of the missile is (if it is indeed the same as FD280) then I could definitely see it achieving in excess of 400km, like 500km or even more. Though I do also note that the side profile of the missile in the official PLA image of the missile launch looks a bit longer than the FD280; it may well be a custom PLA version that might be a bit longer than the standard FD280 if the longer profile is not merely an illusion, meaning it could even be longer ranged than 500km if it is longer than FD280 while retaining the same cross sectional diameter.
 

Wrought

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The one in arabic I believe is from 2022 (290km), and the one in simplified/traditional Chinese (400km) from memory was from 2021 if not earlier.

I suspect both were export numbers, but they further downgraded the 400km to "290km" for MTCR purposes.


If we are speculating as to what the true range of the PLA version of the missile is (if it is indeed the same as FD280) then I could definitely see it achieving in excess of 400km, like 500km or even more. Though I do also note that the side profile of the missile in the official PLA image of the missile launch looks a bit longer than the FD280; it may well be a custom PLA version that might be a bit longer than the standard FD280 if the longer profile is not merely an illusion, meaning it could even be longer ranged than 500km if it is longer than FD280 while retaining the same cross sectional diameter.

With those kind of ranges, maybe the DF-11/15 brigades ought to be reshuffled into the ground forces. Consolidate tactical fires organically.
 

Blitzo

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Maybe that was bad phrasing, I know the brigades are transitioning to DF-17. I meant the missiles themselves. There's got to be a thousand or so stockpiled.

Oh right.

I suspect any remaining DF-11/15s stockpiled would probably be better off left as stockpiles/reserves.
If in a conflict they needed to bring them out of stockpile and use them, I suppose whether they're given to PLAGF or PLARF would depend on a whole heap of factors that aren't worth speculating about.
 

Wrought

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Oh right.

I suspect any remaining DF-11/15s stockpiled would probably be better off left as stockpiles/reserves.
If in a conflict they needed to bring them out of stockpile and use them, I suppose whether they're given to PLAGF or PLARF would depend on a whole heap of factors that aren't worth speculating about.

I suppose that logic is sensible enough, but the optimizer in me won't shut up about expending legacy munitions first to draw out air defenses, force the sensors/launchers/etc to reveal and expose themselves, then suppress them with the more sophisticated platforms. A high-low mix for missiles, as it were, to maximize the cost-efficiency of massed fires.
 

Blitzo

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I suppose that logic is sensible enough, but the optimizer in me won't shut up about expending legacy munitions first to draw out air defenses, force the sensors/launchers/etc to reveal and expose themselves, then suppress them with the more sophisticated platforms. A high-low mix for missiles, as it were, to maximize the cost-efficiency of massed fires.

If the goal is to decoy and draw out enemy air defenses, you're probably better off using EW and dedicated decoy systems built for the task.

Continuing to regularly operate older, less capable systems for the purpose of acting as decoys can actually a drag on optimization because operating those systems doesn't come free in terms of personnel, money, basing, and those could all be things used more efficiently for more modern systems.

That's also why the whole "J-6s as decoy suicide UAVs" isn't something I am massively impressed by because operating them as decoy suicide UAVs will still end up requiring a conventional air base of a non trivial size as well as having airbase crew and support personnel to an extent.
Instead, lower profile, smaller size, more dedicated systems developed explicitly for the role would be more efficient in the long term.
 

Wrought

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If the goal is to decoy and draw out enemy air defenses, you're probably better off using EW and dedicated decoy systems built for the task.

Continuing to regularly operate older, less capable systems for the purpose of acting as decoys can actually a drag on optimization because operating those systems doesn't come free in terms of personnel, money, basing, and those could all be things used more efficiently for more modern systems.

That's also why the whole "J-6s as decoy suicide UAVs" isn't something I am massively impressed by because operating them as decoy suicide UAVs will still end up requiring a conventional air base of a non trivial size as well as having airbase crew and support personnel to an extent.
Instead, lower profile, smaller size, more dedicated systems developed explicitly for the role would be more efficient in the long term.

Right, but the PLA is infamous for holding onto ancient hardware. And it's only half a decoy, because it doesn't matter how a 500kg warhead got there once it hits. An obsolete but functional missile poses a legitimate threat to overstressed air defense; they can't just let them hit targets for free. Given the PLARF's ratio of launchers to missiles it seems unlikely that they are in need of divesting excess stockpiles.

J-6/7 UCAVs are a different story since the maintenence requirements for aircraft is more significant. But there's still some utility to be found in terms of target drones, training, etc. When it comes to suicide runs, those platforms were never designed to be single-use, unlike missiles.
 

polati

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That is true, a dedicated decoy most likely wont do anything if it does get past, but providing the cost-benefit balance is favored towards operating older missiles, it'd be a win-win.
They don't intercept it, it deals damage to their bases
They intercept it, it uses up their air defense.
 

Blitzo

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Right, but the PLA is infamous for holding onto ancient hardware. And it's only half a decoy, because it doesn't matter how a 500kg warhead got there once it hits. An obsolete but functional missile poses a legitimate threat to overstressed air defense; they can't just let them hit targets for free. Given the PLARF's ratio of launchers to missiles it seems unlikely that they are in need of divesting excess stockpiles.

J-6/7 UCAVs are a different story since the maintenence requirements for aircraft is more significant. But there's still some utility to be found in terms of target drones, training, etc. When it comes to suicide runs, those platforms were never designed to be single-use, unlike missiles.

Holding onto ancient hardware in regular service if production of modern hardware has yet to enable replacement, is different to holding onto ancient hardware in regular service for purposes of serving a decoy role.

Keeping old hardware in service poses costs twice.
First it requires the direct cost of personnel, basing and maintenance.
The second cost is the opportunity cost of where those personnel and basing and maintenance resources could have been used if a more capable and more modern system existed instead, which can result in actual worsening of your overall combat efficiency.


That's why mothballing old systems makes sense rather than continuing to operate them, if your production of modern hardware enables old systems to be replaced. It's because eventually it's the personnel and basing and those associated costs which becomes the rate limiting factor and you want to transition them to a more modern capability rather than spending money on them to be retained as operational "decoys" or as a way of drawing defensive fire.


If the concern is wanting to improve penetration capability of fires, the PLA today have access to technologies and systems that present far more effective ways to do so than resource intensively keeping old SRBMs in service.


The J-6 ucav situation is similar in nature.
 
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