Russian Su-57 Aircraft Thread (PAK-FA and IAF FGFA)

[A Bar Brother]

But money does plays a big factor in sustaining a program. No money, no honey (5th gen. fighter program). It's that simple.

That wasn't the point of why I made that statement.

What I meant was the IAF was willing to pay more for a more capable aircraft, that's the FGFA. At the time, the F-35 was significantly cheaper, at $65 Million and at the operation cost of a F-16. So the cheaper cost of the F-35 had no effect on the IAF.

India doesn't have the same level of security clearance as Britain, Canada and Australia. So the idea that India's level of partnership would be higher than Britain if it orders more just completely ignores that very basic point. US has plenty of money. It doesn't need India.

You are not born with security clearance.

If the US could ignore the CTBT and NPT in order to get us into the NSG, a project of mutual importance won't be ignored.

I posted a few links and one of them stated the Americans are changing some of their processes to accommodate India and that only India was being exempted. If India is exempted from signing the CISMOA and LOA, that's going to be a pretty big deal for the military relationship between both countries.

US having plenty of money depends on the context. They took a 500 order cut for the F-35, and they are in the middle of sequestration. Penny for penny, they have more money. However, India's defense budget is growing while theirs is falling.

The F-35 is currently their biggest program. You are confusing biggest program with most advanced program. The F-22 replacement program would be their most advanced program. They won't let us in on that, but the F-35, it may be a long shot, but it is highly possible. India has made it clear that specific large programs will be JVs.

The point of this discussion was you argued that the IAF chose the FGFA for the sake of joint development. IAF is not dumb enough to reduce capability requirements in exchange for piecemeal improvements in the defense industry. It was just a bonus that the FGFA matched what IAF wanted while also was offered joint development. The IAF would have chosen the F-35 had it matched requirements, irrespective of joint development. Heck, it was nearly half the price of a FGFA at the time.

 

[Scyth]

Which engine did Netherlands want on the Rafale? A 90 KN version? The M88-2 itself has undergone one major upgrade since the first version. The newest one is M88-4E. It is already operational. As far as I know only UAE has asked for a 90 KN engine. Even the IAF is not interested in it. And the radar has indeed been upgraded to the AESA. The Rafale has progressed to the F3R version now, that's two versions above the F3.

Like I said and like I quoted from the report:
"A version based on the F3 variant, which during evaluation in 2008 did not exist and still had to be developed"

Anyway, Netherlands did test the Rafale, while they never tested the F-35. Paper evaluations are paper evaluations. At least flying earlier version aircraft throw out a lot of details about the aircraft. Flying the Rafale F1/F2 and expecting new things on the F3 is easier than just looking at brochure specs of a new aircraft and deciding it's the next best thing since the F-22.

That is why the Dutch ministery of Defence evaluated all the candidates using a "lower band/ middle band and upper band performance" category, which already took into account the risk factor that you stated. The middle band of the Rafale was a non-existing, still need to be developed F3Upgraded version. Thus, a paper airplane as well.

The graph does indicate the best versions of Typhoon and Gripen match the lower end of the F-35. However, since the evaluations, Dassault has initiated new programs for the Rafale. This includes technologies like GaN for Spectra, GaN based conformal arrays with active 360 degree surveillance capabilities, new stealthy demonstrator etc, all meant to arrive around the same time as the F-35 achieves FOC and progresses to Block 7. So, Rafale has progressed far beyond the evaluations of the RNAF while the F-35 is still stuck where it was since 2008, a prototype.

These upgrades were well taken into account by the Dutch as they took the upgraded F3 standard as the baseline, which did not even exist at that time.

The Rafale is not an all aspect stealth aircraft as long as active cancellation is not operational. If it is, it leaves the F-35 in the dust. It is a big if, but a possible one.

The Americans have knowledge in the active cancellation field as well. They tried to use it on the B-2, but it didn't work out so well. If it did, we'd seen a whole different kind of stealth fighters.

It's pretty interesting to note that first you use the Dutch evaluation as evidence to support that the Rafale and JSF are closely matched, but now you imply the Dutch did a lousy job in evaluating the candidates....

 

[A Bar Brother]

Like I said and like I quoted from the report:
"A version based on the F3 variant, which during evaluation in 2008 did not exist and still had to be developed"
That is why the Dutch ministery of Defence evaluated all the candidates using a "lower band/ middle band and upper band performance" category, which already took into account the risk factor that you stated. The middle band of the Rafale was a non-existing, still need to be developed F3Upgraded version. Thus, a paper airplane as well.

That's the F3+ version that came after 2010. It was the first version with AESA, and the AESA itself came in at 2012. So that's 4 years. During the time of the Dutch evaluations, the F-35 was also supposed to achieve IOC in 2012. Look what's happened now.

The specs of the F3+ match that of what F-35 will achieve at IOC and then more.

I don't see how it really matters. You are confusing a paper plane with a real plane. The Rafale F3+ is flying today, where is the F-35? Even if the F3+ version was a paper plane, most of the capabilities were available on the F3 version alone. AESA and DDM-NG came in a bit later, but the technology roadmap was there for everybody to see whereas the F-35 was at the same position the Rafale was in 1998. Rafale has seen multiple battles since before the Dutch evaluations, can you say the same about the F-35. You have a very different definition of a paper plane.

Anyway, do you have the actual report of the Dutch evaluations? Please post if you do. I couldn't find it.

The Americans have knowledge in the active cancellation field as well. They tried to use it on the B-2, but it didn't work out so well. If it did, we'd seen a whole different kind of stealth fighters.

The Americans could be far ahead compared to the French in active cancellation. However the difference comes after you deploy such a system. And as far as the F-35 is concerned, it may not even see active cancellation until after 2030.

The Americans may have the most advanced space program in the world. But without a manned capability, the deployed capability of the Russians far outpaces the American's laboratory capabilities. It is the same thing here. A commander in 2014 is not going to be sitting around waiting for technologies to come up in 2021 to fight a war in 2015. In that respect, Rafale is currently the most advanced NATO aircraft flying today. Similarly, even with lesser capabilities, the Rafale was war ready in 2008, while the F-35 wasn't. Hence why it was and still is a paper plane.

We are not talking about American R&D and French R&D, we are talking about what's being offered for the F-35 and Rafale.

It's pretty interesting to note that first you use the Dutch evaluation as evidence to support that the Rafale and JSF are closely matched, but now you imply the Dutch did a lousy job in evaluating the candidates....

What? When did I say that? Please avoid putting words in people's mouths.

The Dutch did an excellent job in their evaluations. As far as electronics are concerned, the Rafale matched the F-35's electronics even with an earlier F3+ version based on their evaluation. The F-35 continues to be a paper aircraft while the Rafale isn't. The Rafale has progressed to the F3R and now will progress to a much later version, making it far more advanced (in terms of electronics). Basically, the F-35 in 2019 will match the Rafale in 2013. The addition of active cancellation will make the F-35's stealth entirely obsolete. And Rafale's aerodynamics is much better. Rafale is cheaper too. A combination of all these makes the Rafale a far better aircraft, hence putting the F-35's "world's best" tag into question. This was always my entire point during the entire discussion.

And considering all of this, including the IAF saying the FGFA is going to be a better aircraft than Rafale, all the criticism of the PAKFA is simply a western point of view. Basically, the Americans are pushing a lie stating the F-35 continues to be the most advanced while being delayed while also stating that the PAKFA will fail, hence will continue to be the most advanced even in the future. The "facts" from the Americans simply don't add up when actual ground realities are different.

 

[Scyth]

That's the F3+ version that came after 2010. It was the first version with AESA, and the AESA itself came in at 2012. So that's 4 years. During the time of the Dutch evaluations, the F-35 was also supposed to achieve IOC in 2012. Look what's happened now.

The specs of the F3+ match that of what F-35 will achieve at IOC and then more.

There is no proof that the Dutch were going for the F3+ variant that is existing today. The publicly published information of the Dutch government state they were aiming for a variant based and upgraded from F3. In another statement they talked about the F4 standard. The Dutch already stated that a "ultimate" end-version of the Eurocanards (Rafale F3, Eurofighter Tranche 3, Gripen NG) could outperform the JSF (Block 1, 2 and 3). When the JSF reaches blocks 4 and beyond, the JSF will outperform all those Eurocanards. This is also what you are stating: you are comparing a Rafale F3 version with a JSF IOC version (you do realize Initial Operational Capabilities mean that the aircraft is not yet fully operational with all its bells and whistles?). The Dutch received the block 2 version now for training and limited excersise. As the Dutch test pilot stated who is flying the JSF: the reason that we fly with "incomplete" planes is to speed up training, otherwise it'd take much longer to introduce an aircraft into the inventory. From later blocks on we can fly without limitations and take full use of its capabilities."

Also the Dutch, in 2008, were using "the middle of the next decade" as when an aircraft should achieve IOC, they did not specify 2012 as exact IOC date.

I don't see how it really matters. You are confusing a paper plane with a real plane. The Rafale F3+ is flying today, where is the F-35? Even if the F3+ version was a paper plane, most of the capabilities were available on the F3 version alone. AESA and DDM-NG came in a bit later, but the technology roadmap was there for everybody to see whereas the F-35 was at the same position the Rafale was in 1998. Rafale has seen multiple battles since before the Dutch evaluations, can you say the same about the F-35. You have a very different definition of a paper plane.

The F-35 roadmap with its capabilities is also for all partner nations accessible. The JSF will be develivered with AESA from day 1. What battles did the Rafale join that is impressive to note? Bombing the Taliban? That's what the Dutch did with their F-16s, an aircraft from 1978 upgraded with new radars, engines and other hardware. Does that mean that the F-16 is better than the Rafale because it has been in much more battles? If anything, the F-16 participating in the first Gulf War against an adversary that had top end fighters and SAMs is much more impressive than bombing some terrorists who don't even have anything flying.

A Dutch F-16 pilot who is retired and not connected to the Dutch F-16 replacement program argues that the Rafale is basically the same as the F-16 in operational capability as pilots in the Rafale used the same tactics that he used in the F-16.

Anyway, do you have the actual report of the Dutch evaluations? Please post if you do. I couldn't find it.

Quid pro quo. What is in return for me?

The Americans could be far ahead compared to the French in active cancellation. However the difference comes after you deploy such a system. And as far as the F-35 is concerned, it may not even see active cancellation until after 2030.

So you say the Americans may be far ahead of the French in active cancellation, but still behind because they don't deploy it on the JSF? You do realize they got the F-22. If anything top end comes out, you bet it'd be used on the Raptor. This crown prince...no ..this king is entitled to all the luxury the USAF can afford.

The Americans may have the most advanced space program in the world. But without a manned capability, the deployed capability of the Russians far outpaces the American's laboratory capabilities. It is the same thing here. A commander in 2014 is not going to be sitting around waiting for technologies to come up in 2021 to fight a war in 2015. In that respect, Rafale is currently the most advanced NATO aircraft flying today. Similarly, even with lesser capabilities, the Rafale was war ready in 2008, while the F-35 wasn't. Hence why it was and still is a paper plane.

I think the Raptor is the most advanced NATO aircraft flying today. Generals and the minister of defence have to set out what they need years or even decades from now on. Even if the Dutch are going to war next year and they need aircraft, it's going to be the F-16 MLUs they have now, not the Rafale. They can't buy a douzens of them in a couple of months, train their pilots and integrate it in their airforce just to fight a war.

What I also try to bring forth is that the upgraded F3 Rafale version did not exist in 2008, so the evaluation was also based on paper specifications, just like the F-35, which makes the Rafale also a paper airplane at that time.

We are not talking about American R&D and French R&D, we are talking about what's being offered for the F-35 and Rafale.

You brought up the space programs of USA and Russia, but R&D directly influences what's being offered.

The point I was trying to make was that the Americans also have knowledge about other types of radar stealth including active cancellation. They didn't like how it worked on the B-2. Unless the French have some major breakthrough or maybe the Americans are playing dumb, active cancellation is not (yet) as effective as the current means of shaping and RAM.

What? When did I say that? Please avoid putting words in people's mouths.

Like I said, you implied it:
-You keep saying the Dutch compared an existing airplane vs. a paper airplane so it was comparing apples and oranges. See also your statement:

Flying the Rafale F1/F2 and expecting new things on the F3 is easier than just looking at brochure specs of a new aircraft and deciding it's the next best thing since the F-22.

This basically implies the Dutch were stupid and just looked at fancy brochures saying ooooohhh aaaaahhhh we need the JSF;
-You said the Rafale evolved far beyond what the Dutch evaluated so implying that it was a shortsighted evaluation;
-And above all see your quote below: first you claim the Dutch did an excellent evaluation, but you end up that their conclusion is wrong, because they did not evaluate the points you've raised, which means their evaluation is wrong.

The Dutch did an excellent job in their evaluations. As far as electronics are concerned, the Rafale matched the F-35's electronics even with an earlier F3+ version based on their evaluation. The F-35 continues to be a paper aircraft while the Rafale isn't. The Rafale has progressed to the F3R and now will progress to a much later version, making it far more advanced (in terms of electronics). Basically, the F-35 in 2019 will match the Rafale in 2013. The addition of active cancellation will make the F-35's stealth entirely obsolete. And Rafale's aerodynamics is much better. Rafale is cheaper too. A combination of all these makes the Rafale a far better aircraft, hence putting the F-35's "world's best" tag into question. This was always my entire point during the entire discussion.

And considering all of this, including the IAF saying the FGFA is going to be a better aircraft than Rafale, all the criticism of the PAKFA is simply a western point of view. Basically, the Americans are pushing a lie stating the F-35 continues to be the most advanced while being delayed while also stating that the PAKFA will fail, hence will continue to be the most advanced even in the future. The "facts" from the Americans simply don't add up when actual ground realities are different.

That was not the discussion between you and me. I simply stated you cannot take the Dutch evaluation out of context. Whether or not the FGFA, PAK-FA or the Rafale is good for the Indians is besides the discussion between you and me.

 

[aksha]

self delete

 

[tphuang]

You are not born with security clearance.

If the US could ignore the CTBT and NPT in order to get us into the NSG, a project of mutual importance won't be ignored.

I posted a few links and one of them stated the Americans are changing some of their processes to accommodate India and that only India was being exempted. If India is exempted from signing the CISMOA and LOA, that's going to be a pretty big deal for the military relationship between both countries.

US having plenty of money depends on the context. They took a 500 order cut for the F-35, and they are in the middle of sequestration. Penny for penny, they have more money. However, India's defense budget is growing while theirs is falling.

The F-35 is currently their biggest program. You are confusing biggest program with most advanced program. The F-22 replacement program would be their most advanced program. They won't let us in on that, but the F-35, it may be a long shot, but it is highly possible. India has made it clear that specific large programs will be JVs.

The point of this discussion was you argued that the IAF chose the FGFA for the sake of joint development. IAF is not dumb enough to reduce capability requirements in exchange for piecemeal improvements in the defense industry. It was just a bonus that the FGFA matched what IAF wanted while also was offered joint development. The IAF would have chosen the F-35 had it matched requirements, irrespective of joint development. Heck, it was nearly half the price of a FGFA at the time.

It's pretty clear based on my conversations with military personnels from these major US allies that Britain, Canada and Australia have the highest level of clearance. Higher than the other NATO countries, higher than Japan and definitely higher than India. All you got is that India has more security clearance than it ever did before and that it offers the potential of a large order. That does not change basic fact that India has lower security clearance than all of the countries I've mentioned who have been long time US allies going back 2 major world wars. No, F-35 program will not offer India a higher level of partnership than what Britain got.

Do you live in this country or work in military/finance areas that you understand and are qualified to discuss the level of debates that are going on here about budgets and such? And no, the idea that F-35 cost half the price of FGFA is laughable at best. Nobody in their right mind (outside of LM sales staff) believed that kind of pitch.

So I think what we've got so far is that you've been making a lot of assertions here without any support on a topic that's more and more sliding off PAK-FA. You've been bringing Rafale into here to the point that it also has nothing to do with PAK-FA now. I'm going to start deleting further posts that are off topic here.

 

[A Bar Brother]

It's pretty clear based on my conversations with military personnels from these major US allies that Britain, Canada and Australia have the highest level of clearance. Higher than the other NATO countries, higher than Japan and definitely higher than India. All you got is that India has more security clearance than it ever did before and that it offers the potential of a large order. That does not change basic fact that India has lower security clearance than all of the countries I've mentioned who have been long time US allies going back 2 major world wars. No, F-35 program will not offer India a higher level of partnership than what Britain got.

India is the country with the lowest level security clearance with the one of the highest offers for joint development from the US, including for export. This happened overnight. The US offered 17 projects to India for potential JV contracts.

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India has shortlisted five of the 17 hi-tech items of military hardware offered by the US for co-production and co-development under a one-of-its kind American offer to boost bilateral defence cooperation.

These items are believed to be - naval guns, mine scattering anti-tank vehicles, unmanned aerial surveillance system, Javelin missiles, and aircraft landing system for carriers, informed defence sources familiar with the development between the two countries, told.

So how do you explain this?

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One of the ways the US is moving the defence relationship forward was by modernizing the American defence exports licensing system. “Over the past seven years, the average time to process a licence for India has dropped almost 40%,” Talwar said. “And it’s important to emphasize that less than 1% of licences destined for India are denied, a figure that is on par or better than many of our closest partners.”

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The Obama administration, mindful of declining US defense spending levels, has tried to expand partnerships with many countries, including India, on military sales, and has dramatically stepped up its advocacy for US arms sales abroad.

He said US government and industry needed to overcome decades of segregation from their counterparts in India. "We don't have the history that Russia does here, and we're trying to replicate that," he said.

You are not going to sell a lot of stuff to India if you do not include JVs in it.

The American officials have openly said they want to start off with small projects like how Russia did with Brahmos before moving on to bigger projects. So in that respect, I'm actually thinking more along the lines of the US offering the NGAD for future development to the IN, similar to how the Russians directly offered the FGFA after Brahmos. Sure, there is a long road to go, but in 2012 nobody knew this was happening behind the scenes.

You are the only one who believes there is no future between the US and India.

Do you live in this country or work in military/finance areas that you understand and are qualified to discuss the level of debates that are going on here about budgets and such? And no, the idea that F-35 cost half the price of FGFA is laughable at best. Nobody in their right mind (outside of LM sales staff) believed that kind of pitch.

Okay, so LM and Pentagon lied even more when they said the F-35 would cost $65 Million and would cost as much as the F-16 to operate?

LM's sales staff are official. Are you gonna ask quotations from Toyota when you go to buy a Honda Civic? Whether you personally don't believe them, that's another point, irrespective of whether you are an internet troll, a retired armed forces personnel or an entire air force.

So I think what we've got so far is that you've been making a lot of assertions here without any support on a topic that's more and more sliding off PAK-FA. You've been bringing Rafale into here to the point that it also has nothing to do with PAK-FA now. I'm going to start deleting further posts that are off topic here.

The point in bringing in Rafale was very simple. I was arguing that the Rafale is as good as the F-35, using the RNAF evaluations. And that the IAF believes the FGFA is better than the Rafale. The RNAF and IAF revelations show two things, that the F-35 isn't all that it is made out to be and that the Russians and the French aren't selling snake oils. Of course, it means that the Chinese and Americans who argue that the Russians aren't working on real 5th gen technology but just some advanced Flanker is simply very wrong.

Without the Rafale, I couldn't have argued all this time that the PAKFA is actually a monster the world needs to be scared of.

 

[Zool]

TP's earlier post was pretty straight forward and accurate. He noted that India is getting in the PAK-FA, a level of engagement in the development process of a 5th Generation Aircraft, that it never would have received from the US. It's a fantastic opportunity for India from where it's current aviation industry stands and one that it should press; get as much as you can out of Russia for your dollar because now is the time.

The arms industry is a matter of degree's when it comes to export clearances and joint development of technologies. TP noted Britain's partnership level in the F-35 a couple of times as something India would be unable to secure if it were to buy into the F-35. That's absolutely true and in fact if you know a bit about US security policy and work done with allied nations, the UK only within the last few years was upgraded to the partnership level that Canada has had for many decades now.

You can buy or 'joint develop' a weapon system with the US but the level of access to critical technologies you receive will depend on who you are. Countries are not in the habit of creating future competition for themselves in the export market or on the battlefield. What India brings to the table for PAK-FA is badly needed funding and an increase in airframe numbers to be produced. I am personally suspect as to how much development work India will actually get in this FGFA variant and how different from PAK-FA it will really be, or when it will start flying. But as I said before it is a great opportunity for India which it should exploit to the fullest.

 

[tphuang]

India is the country with the lowest level security clearance with the one of the highest offers for joint development from the US, including for export. This happened overnight. The US offered 17 projects to India for potential JV contracts.

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So how do you explain this?

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You are not going to sell a lot of stuff to India if you do not include JVs in it.

The American officials have openly said they want to start off with small projects like how Russia did with Brahmos before moving on to bigger projects. So in that respect, I'm actually thinking more along the lines of the US offering the NGAD for future development to the IN, similar to how the Russians directly offered the FGFA after Brahmos. Sure, there is a long road to go, but in 2012 nobody knew this was happening behind the scenes.

You are the only one who believes there is no future between the US and India.



Okay, so LM and Pentagon lied even more when they said the F-35 would cost $65 Million and would cost as much as the F-16 to operate?

LM's sales staff are official. Are you gonna ask quotations from Toyota when you go to buy a Honda Civic? Whether you personally don't believe them, that's another point, irrespective of whether you are an internet troll, a retired armed forces personnel or an entire air force.



The point in bringing in Rafale was very simple. I was arguing that the Rafale is as good as the F-35, using the RNAF evaluations. And that the IAF believes the FGFA is better than the Rafale. The RNAF and IAF revelations show two things, that the F-35 isn't all that it is made out to be and that the Russians and the French aren't selling snake oils. Of course, it means that the Chinese and Americans who argue that the Russians aren't working on real 5th gen technology but just some advanced Flanker is simply very wrong.

Without the Rafale, I couldn't have argued all this time that the PAKFA is actually a monster the world needs to be scared of.

Clearly, you have no respect for moderator here and continue to go off topic because it somehow helps your argument. PAK-FA's own merit should need no convoluted argument involving another fighter jet. Please stay on topic with PAK-FA. You have shown complete lack of understanding of export controls in America, so please move on. I have now issued 2 posts to tell you to get back on topic. Any further off topic posts will be deleted.

 

[A Bar Brother]

TP's earlier post was pretty straight forward and accurate. He noted that India is getting in the PAK-FA, a level of engagement in the development process of a 5th Generation Aircraft, that it never would have received from the US. It's a fantastic opportunity for India from where it's current aviation industry stands and one that it should press; get as much as you can out of Russia for your dollar because now is the time.

The arms industry is a matter of degree's when it comes to export clearances and joint development of technologies. TP noted Britain's partnership level in the F-35 a couple of times as something India would be unable to secure if it were to buy into the F-35. That's absolutely true and in fact if you know a bit about US security policy and work done with allied nations, the UK only within the last few years was upgraded to the partnership level that Canada has had for many decades now.

You can buy or 'joint develop' a weapon system with the US but the level of access to critical technologies you receive will depend on who you are. Countries are not in the habit of creating future competition for themselves in the export market or on the battlefield. What India brings to the table for PAK-FA is badly needed funding and an increase in airframe numbers to be produced. I am personally suspect as to how much development work India will actually get in this FGFA variant and how different from PAK-FA it will really be, or when it will start flying. But as I said before it is a great opportunity for India which it should exploit to the fullest.

Ashton Carter says they are changing their bureaucratic procedures for ease of technological access to India. The Americans have promised a lot of ToT for Javelin and its replacement program. Btw, co-development requires transfer of all technologies. The Americans are willing to do that.

As for the FGFA JV, it may start very low, but will eventually increase over the course of the years, especially when the aircraft comes for MLUs or when new variants are developed. This is like the Brahmos development where India's workshare has gradually increased to the point where we are now launching our own long range program.