Author: Evgeniy Damantsev, Military Analyst
02.04.2024 08:53
Even the Zircons Got a Head Start: How Onyx Missiles Break Through Ukrainian Air Defense Barriers
Onyx missiles break through Ukrainian missile defense barriers
Over the past few months, Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile divisions and regiments of medium- and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems IRIS-T SLM, NASAMS/-2, and Patriot PAC-3MSE, which form echeloned anti-missile barriers over strategically important rear logistics hubs and BC warehouses, have been regularly disabled by massive combined missile strikes using long-range hypersonic aeroballistic missiles Kh-47 M2 "Kinzhal", operational-tactical quasi-ballistic missiles 9M723-1 Iskander-M systems, low-observable low-altitude strategic cruise missiles Kh-101, supersonic tactical missiles 3M55 "Onyx", and, more recently, promising two-stage hypersonic cruise missiles 3M22 "Tsirkon".
Meanwhile, it is the multi-purpose supersonic tactical missiles "Onyx" (previously adapted to the destruction of mainly large radio-contrast surface targets) in the above-mentioned list that can boast a probability of successfully overcoming the enemy's echeloned anti-missile "umbrellas", reaching 95-99%. In particular, for the entire period of the SVO there are very vague and contradictory data on the probable interception by enemy air defense systems of only one or two Onyx missiles, and without any photographic evidence of debris. The highest potential of the Onyx in the tasks of overcoming enemy missile defense systems is confirmed by the statement made earlier by the spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about the technical inability of the SAM systems at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to intercept P-800 missiles. Against this background, recorded episodes of interception by Patriot PAC-3MSE and SAMP-T anti-aircraft missile systems of Kh-47M2, 9M723-1 Kinzhal, and 3M22 Zircon missiles (with a demonstration of the preserved element base and warheads of missiles disabled by the kinetic destruction method "hit-to-kill") still occur, although not often.
A logical question arises: what key advantages, in comparison with the hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and 3M22 Tsirkon, can the supersonic 3M55 Onyx have? After all, the maximum speed of the former reaches 13,500 and 8,500 km/h, respectively, while the Onyx has a completely ordinary maximum speed of 2,655-2,900 km/h at altitudes of 12,500 m and up to 2,450 km/h in low-altitude mode. Theoretically, the cruising speeds of the Kinzhal and Tsirkon are far beyond the maximum speeds of targets tracked by the AN/MPQ-53/65 multifunctional radars (7,560 km/h). This speed limit is relevant for the Patriot PAC-3MSE air defense system, which is based on the AN/MPQ-53/65 multifunctional radars. Similar speeds of hit targets are also true for the SAMP-T air defense missile system.
The key technical snag here is that the cruising speeds of 13,500 and 8,500 km/h for the Kinzhal and Tsirkon missiles, respectively, are achieved only in the stratospheric and mesospheric sections of their trajectories (in the altitude range from 30 to 50–80 km), where aerodynamic drag is minimal due to the high rarefaction of the air, and where the most efficient operating modes of the hypersonic ramjet engines integrated into the second (combat) stages of the 3M22 Tsirkon cruise missiles are realized. In these cruising sections (up to the descending branches of the trajectories with a dive onto targets at angles of 75–90 degrees), the Kinzhal and Tsirkon missiles are out of reach of all known endoatmospheric and exoatmospheric anti-aircraft interceptor missiles.
However, in the terminal sections of the descending branches of the trajectories (in the lower layers of the stratosphere and troposphere), a sharp increase in pressure, provoking an increase in aerodynamic drag, leads to a sharp decrease in the speeds of the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles to 1200-750 m/s, and the 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic missiles to 1600-1250 m/s. And these speeds are already fully covered by the maximum speed limits of target objects intercepted by the American Patriot PAC-3MSE and French SAMP-T air defense systems. At the same time, the detection of the Kinzhals and Tsirkons with their effective reflective surface of 0.03-0.05 sq. m will be carried out by divisional multifunctional radars AN/MPQ-53/65 and Arabel at a distance of 70-60 km even at the moment of flight at hypersonic speeds
As for the intensive anti-aircraft maneuvers of the Kinzhals, as well as the gliding warheads of the Tsirkons at the terminal sections of their trajectories, they really do reduce the probability of their interception by the MIM-104F PAC-3MSE and Aster-30 anti-aircraft missiles to 0.35 - 0.6. Nevertheless, there is no need to talk about the complete lack of ability of these anti-aircraft missiles to intercept the Russian Kh-47M2 and 3M22. After all, both the MIM-104F anti-aircraft missiles and the second (combat stages) stages of the French Aster-30 anti-aircraft missiles have the highest flight and technical qualities. In particular, both types of anti-aircraft interceptor missiles have not only an aerodynamic control system based on all-moving tail surfaces, but also gas-dynamic “belts” of transverse control engines, providing maneuvering with the implementation of overloads of 62 units, which provides the ability to intercept complex aerodynamic and ballistic targets that carry out anti-aircraft maneuvers with overloads of up to 30 units.
These anti-aircraft missiles are also equipped with active radar homing heads in the millimeter (Ka-) and centimeter (X-) wave ranges, ensuring the interception of missiles diving at Patriot PAC-3MSE and SAMP-T divisions even after they have gone beyond the elevation sectors of the MPQ-53/65 and Arabel guidance radars, and also ensuring the interception of targets using the kinetic destruction (hit-to-kill) method.
The supersonic low-signature anti-ship multipurpose missiles 3M55 "Onyx" demonstrate a much more serious potential in overcoming the echeloned anti-missile barriers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Despite the limited flight speed of 2450 km/h, the lower echelon of the low-altitude flight profile of the 3 M55 missile at the terminal section of the trajectory can be 30-20 m above the flat terrain. As a result, the range of the radio horizon for the "Onyx" approaching at an altitude of 20 m for the MPQ-53/65 and Arabel radars deployed on flat areas will reach 25-27 km, while the "Tsirkons" and "Kinzhals" are detected at a distance of 70-60 km. If the air defense/missile defense position area is full of wooded hills, the detection range of the Onyx will be reduced to 15-10 km. As a result, the Patriot PAC-2/3 and SAMP-T SAM crews will have a minimum time window of 10 to 32 seconds (taking into account the “dead zones” of these systems). With a reaction time of 3.2 and 5-7 seconds, the Patriot PAC-3MSE anti-aircraft missile divisions will not even technically have time to launch MIM-104F anti-missiles, for example, against 12-24 Onyx from 1 or 2 batteries of the Bastion-P systems.
The SAMP-T SAM system with 10 target channels and a firing rate of up to 48 targets per minute will boast a higher potential. However, during a 10-second time window, the SAMP-T will be able to launch no more than 8 Aster-30 anti-missiles at the Onyx. Taking into account the anti-aircraft maneuvering of the 3M55 Onyx missiles with overloads of 25-30 units, the probability of destruction will decrease from 0.95 to 0.35-0.5. As a result, even theoretically, only 4-5 Onyxes may be enough to overcome the SAMP-T SAM anti-missile barrier.
An equally important feature of the upgraded 3M55 Onyx-M multipurpose supersonic missiles is their advanced active-passive radar homing head based on a waveguide-slot antenna array. New algorithms for processing primary radar information and amplitude-frequency modulation allow the new homing head not only to capture large surface ships, radio-contrast ground targets and radio-emitting objects (including electronic warfare systems and anti-aircraft missile radars) for precise autotracking, but also to classify them by their radar portrait in the synthetic aperture mode. The active-passive radar homing head is activated at the final section of the marching section of the trajectory (approximately 70-20 km from the target, depending on the type of target and its effective reflective surface), after which the 3M55 switches to the ultra-low-altitude mode, hiding behind the "screen" of the radio horizon for the enemy's air defense missile systems. After the target leaves the "screen" of the radio horizon, the active radar homing head is activated again and the target is captured for precise automatic tracking with its final destruction.
