Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!

Finn, its just a matter of getting weapon systems that are of third party use. that is one reason for the no go on the merkava, The Bill,SPIKE and so on are all used by diff nations thus giving the supplier the uh...will have to investigate that...you know just like the terrorists or just to be PC "party of god" using Kornet against Israeli tanks. The other heavy weapons would be validated by joining NATO or under pretext protection against further russian aggression.

oh..and end user agreements are dust especially after the lebanon war. U.S and Israel are like...wink wink nod..."no, oh great giant bear, we would never give weapons to georgia..."did you loose another submarine".....name that movie?

Listing all the fancy kit that Georgia had, have or will have doesen't much help you if you don't have a trained army to operate them.

This "campaing" of Georgians showed that not only did they lack the very basics of diplomatic code of conduct but also practically every single aspect of basic strategical and tactical thinking of of modern warfare not to mention actual military training of how to fight. Reading the stuff what actually took place in the South Ossetia really makes me sad tough I'm utterly biased to Russian side...All the myth about heroic Georgian defending their homeland has fell in the gutter. It was tragi-comical fars of paper army playing real army and paying a hard prize...Us old grunts in here could have planned the initial georgian asault much better than it actually went on.

So If there would be a seccond phase of this war (which wont happen, Georgians wont be that stubid again) only thing that would avoid another similar humiliation would be foreing troops that actually knows how to fight helping Georgia out. You could give them all the toys from the stores but without knowing how to use them they are just that...toys.

I have to agree with Golli. The current absence of a Georgian army makes such talk of a second round quite absurd. It shouls also be remembered that two wars have been played out here.

1 - the grand strategy of superpowers.

2 - The business as Usual Cattle Raid of the Caucuses.

With 2 being the main factor in the minds of the locals and why the Georgian army disappeared overnight when the prospect of easy spoils were replaced by the prospect of a real shooting war against a real army.

I dont buy this plausable deniablity either. Russia can simply press for an Arms Embargo against Georgia in the UN (a typical response to any Warzone) and simply declare a unilaterla one with its own coalition of the willing, if such a move is blocked. All plausibel deniability means is that Russia would be able to conduct further security operations under the guise of the Six point plan and remove these weapons too.

Thankyou to Husar for his very informative post on Adjaran and what certianly appears like Russian manoeuvers to secure the last major Black Sea Port left under Tblisis's control.

More out of Ukraine, the Regions Party is attempting to sack the foreign minster over the "illegal" presence of US warships in the Black Sea. Thing to watch out for here; if Yanukovych and Tymoshenko form a coalition (which is looking more and more likely they will) then they will control the govt and could leave Yushchenko with no real power...

Ukraine's political crisis has deepened as a pro-Russian MP called for the foreign minister to be sacked over the "illegal" presence of US warships in the Black Sea, Interfax news agency said.

A draft text demanding removal of Foreign Minister Vladimir Orgyzko was submitted to parliament

The author of the draft resolution, Vasiliy Kiselev, told Interfax-Ukraine in an interview that the country's foreign minister should be sacked for "the illegal entry of the American warship 'Dallas' into the bay of Sevastopol."

Orgyzko should have protested the US vessel's presence because no foreign warship may enter Ukrainian territorial waters with prior permission from the foreign ministry, the agency cited Kiselev as saying.

The independent daily Gazeta 24, quoting unnamed lawmakers in the prime minister's parliamentary bloc, said Tymoshenko and the leader of the Regions Party "have already agreed to create a coalition."

According to that report, Tymoshenko would remain in the post of prime minister while the Regions Party leader, Viktor Yanukovych, would take over as speaker of parliament.

Yushchenko, whose popularity is very low in Ukraine and whose presidential prerogatives have already been significantly trimmed, would be largely powerless to thwart such a scenario, experts said.

"His popularity is too low to compete with the Timoshenko bloc and the Regions Party," Gazeta 24 quoted an unidentified parliamentary source as saying.

The Regions Party holds the most seats in Ukraine's parliament and an alliance between them and Tymoshenko's deputies would easily create a coalition capable of governing.

Yushchenko threatened to dissolve the parliament and force new elections, but analysts said this was a bluff that he could not afford to have called.

One report speculated that the president could avoid elections and impose his will by declaring a state of emergency in Crimea where the Russian Black Sea fleet is based.

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Gol, San...I will agree with you that the U.S was kind of the puppet master but I do know from on the ground the Georgians in ossetia fought with a high degree of professionalism. First hand reports have them using next generation arty munitions with cluster bomblets to great effect against Russian tanks, they also used the SPIKE in killing tanks pretty well, HOWEVER, once it was apparent that Russia was planning its own move into Georgia on its own IE 1 full MR division and airborne Division already staged out it too was planning this.

I do know Ossetia separatist got the green light only after the Ossetians got absolute backing from big bear for intervention THEN got nasty and started attacking Georgian troops around ossetia. Georgia then moved, There were very few people living in the area at the time because Ossetian new it was coming then provoked it. Georgia bit like a striped bass and Washington did not know Russia could or would move so fast and in order to maintain the current Georgian government once Intel showed the bear had enough fire power to turn Georgia into something like Chechnya did Washington tell Georgia drop back and lets re-look at this.

Georgia kept its military and equipment above 70% and around 400 dead maybe 1,000 wounded mainly from the brigade in Ossetia. Its communication nets have already been re-installed by the Mount Whitney and supporting warships. We do know that communication systems have been going in along with more weapons.

The positives is that the DoD knows what russia can and can not do. We were watching and listening and the conclusion from information sources that I have is that the DoD is very happy with Russias warfighting ability as once things got into OP-2 the DoD saw that the russians telegraph its punches and are none to good in combined air operations. Rumor mill statment but pretty good sources" If this were Poland russia would have been defeated hands down" I understand russian communication nets are open for U.S Hi tech monitoring and had 100% situational awareness on there whole OP-PLAN around -2. We could hear what russian company commanders were bitching about and said were going well. Mainly again, SPIKE or other ATGW, Arty with submunitions and sniper teams. Russian columns jammed long stretches of road and did not go over land like U.S forces. Reports from DoD watching via satellite claim they could of just decimated most of the russian force with B-2 in just a matter of hours and taken out airfields in southern Russia.

Quote from **source**" it is very apperent these guys can only fight a 1970s type of war.Their war fighting doctrine and tech is 40 years behind us and they have little unified command structure. BUT, washington is going to play this like the bear is back and we are going to play along for funding"....cheers ute

^ Sigh.... suffering a major strategic blow is a funny way to show your strength.

Russia used its third tier troops and irregulars. It worked. The first tier troops would be a totally different animal.

Russia used its third tier troops and irregulars. It worked. The first tier troops would be a totally different animal.

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Theres Russian spetsnaz and paratrops fighting. These are first tier troops. 19 Motorized division is a good unit too. Also all troops participating in fighting have recieved many exercises and training before the war as well as ammo and petrol supply.

Ute, have you by any change read the article posted in the post 423 of this thread? It's sofar the most detailed and all-covering analyze of the whole conflict and despite minor factual errors it's quite accurate and plausible.

That particular article gives bit different insight than your "fought with a high degree of professionalism" claim. Infact it gives completely opposite image oft he georgians and reveals that instead of being anyway near of any sort of professionalism they showed incompetense in almoust all areas of warfare and even plain stubidity. I know it's just an article and analyze of some individual (friend of Sandyj if I inturpered it right) but the facts and end result back it up quite well...

I agree with Gollevainen here. The US can give the Georgians all the fancy weapons and quality intelligence they have, but it won't save the Georgians unless they can plan a good operation (this operation was poorly planned even given the limited options the Georgians had) and grasp basic tactics. An ATGM team can cause casualties, but it won't do much or survive very long unless the Georgian Army can develop capable company and battalion level operations. Also it seems that they will need to develop a more professional army in general, since it appears that they mainly fled when faced with real resistance. So far more than they need SPIKEs or MANPADS, they need quality-trained infantry and the ability to coordinate and execute an operation, regardless of what equipment they are carrying. Professionalize first, then incorporate equipment. The Georgian Army needs to learn to walk before it can run. Giving them these weapons now would just be like giving expensive Nike running shoes to a baby that can't even walk yet.

I think that the Russians will now try to split of Adjaria again as well, to complete Georgia's weakening. Also I have no doubt that Russian intelligence is busy trying to influence Ukranian politics.

As even groups like the Taliban have repeatedly demonstrated, being poorly equipped is less important than effective organization, after all. This is something the Georgians seem to have neglected.