Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!

Thanks for all the answers re the oil situation,looks like we have to keep Russia happy until the nuclear and renewable situation gets sorted out
Scratch,have to say I agree with your comment about mutual reliance.It is a very naive point of view to think mutual reliance prevents conflict,after all it didnt stop the First World War kicking off!

However its not all one way traffic with Russia,for the next 10-20 years theyll have it good with oil,but when the nuclear plants etc are either built or on the way to being built.,Russia will have cause to regret their desicion to cut off the supply to Ukraine

Heres another question:Just how effective are Russias forces?Even with my admittadly limited technical knowledge they look very antiquated,and a lot of their equipment looks very poorly maintained.
Would I be right in believing the vast bulk of their tanks are T72 or earlier?
If they have been using money from oil and gas for new equipment,it must have been bought in very small qauntities,also how easy would it be to intergrate newer equipment with the older,poorley maintained stuff?
What about troop training?Can Russia conscripts use the newer stuff affectively?

My opinion is that its one thing rolling over Georgia,but quite another to take on,say GB or France,or any other country of similar size,as for the US forget it!

A

plausible deniability thats what Israeli and U.S are getting as 8 flights of weapons pour into Georgia which includes SPIKE SR-MR ATGW, M-40 sniper systems, MATODOR and Armburst anti tank rockets, better tandem RPG rounds, night vision systems used with SPIKE. unknown type MANPAD.

flights going from Israel? to port of aqaba then Turkey then Georgia by unknown outside contractor. report also that Bill 2 ATGW may have already been delivered but are being trained up south of tbilisi. South Tbilisi with its 3 airbases have become huge military staging areas.

How much of this is real, I dont know, but I have heard that DoD realy wants to rearm georgia quickly and many think georgia could have another go at the russians in a year once weapons come in and train-up happens. They got some good Intel on russian OP-PLAN for georgian invasion and will move quickly once Georgia says russia has gone against the cease fire.

Also to note Georgia used the SPIKE and Arty cluster bomblets designed to detect tanks to great effect in ossetia and Georgian High command says they could of fought the russians harder but were ordered to regroup around tbilisi as they were not completey ready for war with russia-....heard they were just 6 months out before lots more SPIKE,MANPADS,SPYDER and BILL-2 were in action and they think they could of defeated the russians

also Israel denied georgia 200 Merkava 3 BUT georgians tankers have been in Israel training up on the Merkava and now just Maybe surplus Merkava 2 with extra armour could go to Georgia because of the russian invasion. U.S pushing hard for this.

If the Georgians think they can take on Russia a second time just need to remember what happened to the Chechens, it's just asking for more trouble for little effect.

Well, nuclear energy in europe is a difficult thing. The Finns currently built one, the french who have to replace the first from 2020 on also. Belarussia does I think, Poland and Lithuania plan to built two. Rumania will built two now, Bulgaria gets one, the Czechs also want one as well as Slowakia. That's basicly a newbuilt of eastern europes' energy sector. Italy and Austria are out, Spain is on the way out, and Germany currently also. I guess the next election will decide how finite that then is. But currently I can't imagine new ones built here.
So basicly Russia does not have to fear european energy indepandance based on nuclear energy I think.
And there are also no other alternatives in sight that could really fill the gap.

The Russian forces do have some fancy stuff, and they saw light at the end of a tunnel lately, the question though is how much time does the average russian soldier have to play with that stuff to get familiar.

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I think Olmert was in Moscow in June and promised Medwedjew israeli support (training) for the georgian forces stopped, after Russia protested that. They also might cut back on (open) support in general I suspect.
Now that Russia will built mil bases and consolidate it's position in SO and ABK, I think georgian forces might only find it even more difficult to take those Regions back in a year. Furthermore, if they take on the russians a second time, I could imagine the russians going all the way to Tiblisi then. I'm not sure if they'll take that gamble.

Military speaking, with the amount of ATGW, MANPADS, Tbilisi and 10 miles around Tbilsi would be a very hard nut to crack given its terrian. Many mountain foothills, Gorges, and vallys that would be perfect for ATGW systems.

Its not if but when more and more systems such as the Bill2 and SPIKE are used by Georgian forces combined with well trained light infantry. Even If the russians could make it through the hill country around Tbilisi and would then become a urban nightmare for russian troops. Tbilisi is a big city with old quarters,fortresses,caves and tunnels run under the city.

My group estimated that 20 to 30,000 Georgian troops were dug in a defensive belt inside and around the capital. With the influx of more weapons each day they are starting to dispense higher quaility systems to national gaurd units like remington 700, Barret .50, and better M-4 with designated marksmen optics, MATADOR/ARMBURST even RPG-27/29 and Metis-M smuggled in via Ukrain/poland through Turkey.

slow but non-stop trickle of arms 3-4 trucks a day come in with 200 M-4 carbines and 40 or so MATADOR/ARMBURST/RPG-27 and a few extra SPIKE missiles. In just 3 months this will be a Massive amount of weapons

First of all, Sakashvili's political survival is doubtful. As soon as the dust settles he'll be facing a political chalenge and he knows it, hence all the beligerent rhethoric and posturing in order to keep the wolves at bay.

Second, Georgia doesn't exist in a vacuum. If Georgia was to be suddenly flooded with weapons, who's to say that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah won't be receiving large scale supplies in return.....how about cutting off Nato's supply line to Afghanistan over Russia?.....can you imagine what would happen in Afghanistan if the the Taliban were to suddenly receive even limited amounts of aid?

And thirdly, if Georgia was to try another stunt again, they would be devasted....no amount of Spikes, Sniping rifles or whatever would change the outcome

ATGM and MANPADs won't stop medium and high level bombing, which would wreck the nation strategically and force a political settlement regardless of whether the capital falls. To stop that, Georgia needs an airforce and far more air defense units. Both of which require serious infrastructure, physical and human, not something you can whip up in a few years.

A total air-defence intergrated network is already in the works and has been in the works. the final look of it in 2012 would be 4,000 men operating Avenger, SPYDER, I-Hawk and then some patriot on entry into nato.

In all IF georgia would have waited just 4 more years to move it could have defeated russia with the amout of aid NATO, T&A, Israel and TRADOC would have given it. Georgia 2012 would have been and I hear is still a go!
42,000 active 60,000 ready reserve
200 Leo-2,Leclerk or Merkava
200 Patria with SPIKE ATGW
200 BMP-2
300 Cobra and BTR-70
60 DANA
100 LAR-160 and MLRS
30 MI-24 HIND and 30 super cobra, 40+ blackhawk, 50 UH-1
12 F-16 and and 12 Rafel or Mirage 2000
40 SU-25I
200 SPIKE sm/em 100+ BILL 2 ATGW, 200 SMAW, 200 AT-4, 1,000 MATADOR/ARMBURST/RPG-7/27/29"ukrain" ??some metis-m

Complete intergrated AD as above

If the US is indeed delivering all these weapons to Georgia as you claim, how does this have plausible deniability. Russia intelligence would surely know, and moreover it's just obvious that if the Georgians were getting all these weapons that we would be the ones giving them.

lcortez said:

Thanks for all the answers re the oil situation,looks like we have to keep Russia happy until the nuclear and renewable situation gets sorted out
Scratch,have to say I agree with your comment about mutual reliance.It is a very naive point of view to think mutual reliance prevents conflict,after all it didnt stop the First World War kicking off!

However its not all one way traffic with Russia,for the next 10-20 years theyll have it good with oil,but when the nuclear plants etc are either built or on the way to being built.,Russia will have cause to regret their desicion to cut off the supply to Ukraine

Heres another question:Just how effective are Russias forces?Even with my admittadly limited technical knowledge they look very antiquated,and a lot of their equipment looks very poorly maintained.
Would I be right in believing the vast bulk of their tanks are T72 or earlier?
If they have been using money from oil and gas for new equipment,it must have been bought in very small qauntities,also how easy would it be to intergrate newer equipment with the older,poorley maintained stuff?
What about troop training?Can Russia conscripts use the newer stuff affectively?

My opinion is that its one thing rolling over Georgia,but quite another to take on,say GB or France,or any other country of similar size,as for the US forget it!

A

Click to expand...

I still have serious questions about the Russian armed forces but it looks like here they have at least grown out of the Yeltsin years doldrums. At least here one can see that the T-72s that have been seen and photographed in both sides are all upgraded with ERA, not like Saddam's tanks. We also see a number of T-90s and T-80s, and different variations of the T-72. I'm no expert on the T-72 and its numerous variants and alphabet soup (T-72Bx and whatever letter you can think of). After this we may probably see increasing escalation and progression of the Russian army modernization. However, money spent on modernization may be lost to inefficiency and corruption. The Russian Army hasn't had the kind of sweeping structural reform the PLA had in the mid 90s.

If anything it seems the classic formula of the blitz still works---speed, shock and overwhelming force.

As for the Ukraine I doubt that their current anti-Russian stance is long term. Seems like the current President has a beef with the Russians, justifiable, since they tried to poison him. However, his prime minister, a woman named Timoshenko (isn't that the last name of a famous general in the Soviet Union), is seems pro-Russian and the President threatened to sic his secret police on her. Boy not very democratic and very Soviet Union like heh.

Facts is in the Ukraine, half or more than half of the people, speak Russian, have Russian blood or ethnic Russian or believe in the Russian Orthodox church. In the long term the Ukraine might end up in the same route as the Belarus.