Russia Economy Thread
- Thread starter NiuBiDaRen
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This guy has a long history of being wrong on both China and Russia's economies. He simply has no clue.
He continues his stupid claim that 60% of China's GDP is fake based on that stupid "study" on poorly calibrated night light emissions.
There are no capital controls in Russia anymore. The government long since removed them. There are some left only for companies from unfriendly states because they were actively sabotaging the Russian economy trying to crash it down. Everyone else long has had no capital controls whatsoever.
Russia's GDP grew not just due to military spending but also due to active import substitution. This phase is now mostly over with only some long cycle products like civilian aircraft left to substitute.
Western imports were already successfully substituted out in automobiles and trains.
Car sales recovered to pre-war numbers of 1.7 million a year on 2021 by 2024. Car production crashed by 2/3rds of 2021 level in 2022 but was just 1/3rd lower than 2021 in 2024. It might take another two years to fully recover car production.
Import substitution was achieved in production of certain niche paper products, in elevators, and other products. 65 MW, 110 MW, 170 MW gas turbines for heat and power are now made in Russia. As are 32 MW gas turbines for gas pumping and power generation.
Longer term Russia is going to build Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. Exports of piped gas to China will grow from 38 bcm a year to 100 bcm. More LNG export capacity is being built to boost exports. Pipelines are being built to Central Asian countries including Kazakhstan and reverse flows of gas into the Central Asian states through Soviet pipelines are being done.
The labor shortage can be mitigated with automation. They are already working on automated trains, and there is lots of room to further automate industry.
Russia is also engaging in the biggest nuclear power plant construction program since the Soviet period with eight VVER-1200 1.2 GW reactors currently under construction in Russia. With double that capacity planned to be built in the future.
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So there are still capital controls.
They are counter sanctions. It is not like the West has not done much worse to Russian assets.
The West is stealing close to 300 billion USD in Russian Central Bank holdings and lots of private and corporate assets were plain stolen as well.
Are those Western capital controls?
These Western companies operating in Russia are forbidden to repatriate their profits to the West or drain their whole treasury and leave a broken company behind with the Russian state having to foot the bill for the unemployed which got no compensation. Which is what a lot of them were doing initially.
Screw this "economist" guy.
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IMO long-term a lot will depend on how well Russia integrates with the Chinese economy. Not just about trade volume, needs to genuinely coordinate its economy with China.
Especially since Russia is and will generally act in areas and in ways that China won’t. Like Iran, for example.
This will require Russia to learn to accept reliance on at least some Chinese inputs and vice versa.
A lot of people in Russia do not want to trade an economic dependency on the West with one on China. You can bet Russia will be a lot more protectionist economically than in the recent past.
Sectors considered to be strategic like transportation and energy will be Russified.
But I see a lot of cooperation happening already. Not just substituting Western inputs for Chinese ones where possible, but also industrial joint ventures.
Sectors considered to be strategic like transportation and energy will be Russified.
But I see a lot of cooperation happening already. Not just substituting Western inputs for Chinese ones where possible, but also industrial joint ventures.
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Not true on automobiles.
In 2025 new car sales has fallen by 25% year-on-year. Because Russian government put a 80%-105% "recycling fee" on Chinese imports. And used vehicles sales see a 6.5% year-on-year increase where China's share rose from 3% in 2023 to 16% in July 2025 because for the same money now, Russian consumers can choose from a new Chinese crossover or a three- or four-year-old Japanese, Korean, or European make (often produced in a Chinese factory).
And LADAs, it's simply rubbish compared to Chinese ICE cars let alone Chinese BEVs.
Let's be honest Russia will never be able to bulid its own successful automotive industry. Russia should just let China sell its consumer goods. Look at Australia, beef and Iron ore for Chinese BEVs.
Russia is going 100% tech independence in Auto industry. there are three directions. One is led by Rosatom with its EVs and higher tech and another is Autovaz who has much cheaper long term parts especially body panels, suspension, transmission, airconditioning, brakes and with smaller size tires. There is upper tier Aurus.
now they are Chinese assemblers in Russia but Russia want them to use Russian parts to increase the part production. eventually they will phase out this used car imports.
now they are Chinese assemblers in Russia but Russia want them to use Russian parts to increase the part production. eventually they will phase out this used car imports.
Car sales crashed not just because of the recycling fee. It was also because of the interest rate which was 21%. Car prices are also like double what they were in 2021.
Companies are investing a lot on tooling, new models, and this needs to be paid for somehow.
The recycling fee is nothing new however. The Russian government might have taken it down in the emergency in 2022 but now it is back with a vengeance.
Russia is too big to be a pure resource appendage. Australia is 27 million people. That is about the population of Greater Moscow area. Russia has 144 million.
For the government utility vehicles are more critical, things like trucks, or farming equipment. But they also need some kind of consumer autos.
Haval is doing fine in Russia because they actually make cars there.
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I posted link few days ago from RT arabic where Putin was telling those Central Asian leaders to buy local. i put comment there. now Russia may not currently enforce this rule but this can happen in next few years. (thats another discussion why it will happen).
I foresee this CIS market of 300m (look at Russia military size) people within 10 years. this is thr scale of demographic change and this market will be integrated to Mideast through North-South corridor.
Every thing is interrelated from mining rare earth to robotics to autos/aviation.
I foresee this CIS market of 300m (look at Russia military size) people within 10 years. this is thr scale of demographic change and this market will be integrated to Mideast through North-South corridor.
Every thing is interrelated from mining rare earth to robotics to autos/aviation.