Russia Economy Thread
- Thread starter NiuBiDaRen
- Start date
This guy has a long history of being wrong on both China and Russia's economies. He simply has no clue.
He continues his stupid claim that 60% of China's GDP is fake based on that stupid "study" on poorly calibrated night light emissions.
There are no capital controls in Russia anymore. The government long since removed them. There are some left only for companies from unfriendly states because they were actively sabotaging the Russian economy trying to crash it down. Everyone else long has had no capital controls whatsoever.
Russia's GDP grew not just due to military spending but also due to active import substitution. This phase is now mostly over with only some long cycle products like civilian aircraft left to substitute.
Western imports were already successfully substituted out in automobiles and trains.
Car sales recovered to pre-war numbers of 1.7 million a year on 2021 by 2024. Car production crashed by 2/3rds of 2021 level in 2022 but was just 1/3rd lower than 2021 in 2024. It might take another two years to fully recover car production.
Import substitution was achieved in production of certain niche paper products, in elevators, and other products. 65 MW, 110 MW, 170 MW gas turbines for heat and power are now made in Russia. As are 32 MW gas turbines for gas pumping and power generation.
Longer term Russia is going to build Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. Exports of piped gas to China will grow from 38 bcm a year to 100 bcm. More LNG export capacity is being built to boost exports. Pipelines are being built to Central Asian countries including Kazakhstan and reverse flows of gas into the Central Asian states through Soviet pipelines are being done.
The labor shortage can be mitigated with automation. They are already working on automated trains, and there is lots of room to further automate industry.
Russia is also engaging in the biggest nuclear power plant construction program since the Soviet period with eight VVER-1200 1.2 GW reactors currently under construction in Russia. With double that capacity planned to be built in the future.
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So there are still capital controls.
They are counter sanctions. It is not like the West has not done much worse to Russian assets.
The West is stealing close to 300 billion USD in Russian Central Bank holdings and lots of private and corporate assets were plain stolen as well.
Are those Western capital controls?
These Western companies operating in Russia are forbidden to repatriate their profits to the West or drain their whole treasury and leave a broken company behind with the Russian state having to foot the bill for the unemployed which got no compensation. Which is what a lot of them were doing initially.
Screw this "economist" guy.
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IMO long-term a lot will depend on how well Russia integrates with the Chinese economy. Not just about trade volume, needs to genuinely coordinate its economy with China.
Especially since Russia is and will generally act in areas and in ways that China won’t. Like Iran, for example.
This will require Russia to learn to accept reliance on at least some Chinese inputs and vice versa.
A lot of people in Russia do not want to trade an economic dependency on the West with one on China. You can bet Russia will be a lot more protectionist economically than in the recent past.
Sectors considered to be strategic like transportation and energy will be Russified.
But I see a lot of cooperation happening already. Not just substituting Western inputs for Chinese ones where possible, but also industrial joint ventures.
Sectors considered to be strategic like transportation and energy will be Russified.
But I see a lot of cooperation happening already. Not just substituting Western inputs for Chinese ones where possible, but also industrial joint ventures.
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