Russia Economy Thread

F

Franklin

Captain
tphuang said:
Sounds like consumer spending in Russia has come back now that they RUB has gained value and supply chain to Asia has stabilized. Look at that, Chinese export to Russia in July was up 22% over 2021. Remember all that story about China not exporting to Russia as much due to fear of secondary sanctions? I guess they've figured out which markets they can serve without incurring secondary sanctions.
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We will see when China is confident about restoring machinery export and investment into Russia. Probably will need to wait until EU sanctions to Russia reducing a little bit.


Vladivostok port traffic is another sign of this. I wonder if they can just rail freight all this through China? I guess Russia wants to utilize its own railway system to do the transport
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I don't have the Bloomberg article, but definitely sounds like Russia is re-orienting its foreign trade and reserves to CNH. This process has really picked up in the past couple of weeks. Great news for China.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564582101852241921
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I think what is happening is that there are alot of Chinese companies that either do business with the west or are dependent on western technologies. These companies have left Russia after the sanctions were imposed because they fear that staying in the Russian market would hurt their business in the west.

But there are also alot of Chinese companies that don't do business with the west or dependent on their technology and those companies have found a whole new market for their products with very little competition. And more of them are now rushing into this new market. I believe that is why you are seeing exports to Russia going up.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The problem Russia has is its population core is closer to Europe than it is to China. That is one reason why it made more sense for them to import some finished goods from Europe than China for example.

A large part of Russian mineral resources, coal, oil, gas, are actually the same distance to the EU as they are to Northeastern China. Making a pipeline from the Yamal gas fields to China is roughly the same distance as making one to Germany. But the European pipeline will also pass near Russia's main population cores, i.e. Moscow and St. Petersburg, so it made more sense for Russia to build that first. Steel and nickel refining in Russia are also to a large extent same distance to both Europe and China.

Russia is expanding the capacity of the Transiberian railroad, BAM railroad, to expand exports to China. But this requires digging tunnels though mountains and the whole project will likely only be finished near the end of this decade. i.e. not any time soon. The idea is to expand both railroads to be double tracked, double stack, and also speed up freight trains from 80 kph to 160 kph.

Another major effort Russia needs to do, is to expand the Arctic ports like Arkhangelsk and use the Northern Sea route. For this they are expanding the amount of nuclear icebreakers in their fleet including building the Leader class icebreakers. Which should enable year around use of the Northern Sea route.
 
P

pmc

Major
Registered Member
According to Turkish data. Russia-Turkey trade exceed $50b in first 9 months. this require tremendous effort in shifting logistics after February.
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According to TUIK data; In the 9 months of this year, exports to Russia increased by 43 percent and exceeded 5 billion dollars. Imports from Russia to Turkey, on the other hand, increased by about 125 percent and exceeded 45 billion dollars.
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
It is a really bad idea to make major facilities like this in Kaliningrad at this time I think. Too much danger of it getting blockaded.
If anything Russia should be relocating any substantive facilities in there to Russia mainland proper.
 
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