Russia Economy Thread

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Russia is building a small 28nm fab with 300mm wafers. Really tiny one. But will be enough for the MIC.
They will also need to continue to expand their capability to manufacture GaN wafers. Their first GaN foundry came online last year.

Russia's market for semiconductors is kind of small. But there is no reason why they should be behind European countries. Well I would say that except for France they aren't behind anyone in Europe in terms of tech level. Germany has more capacity but roughly the same tech level. I don't count US fabs on EU soil like Intel or Globalfoundries really. The EU should stop funding these companies and fund actual European semi companies like STMicro or X-Fab.
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
I think you're being unrealistic about Russia.

On semiconductors, Russia normally only accounts for $3 Bn in semiconductor sales which is less than 1% of global demand. That's just not enough to build up a big domestic industry. And forget about exports to the West as this won't be allowed.

Plus there is the Chinese semiconductor industry. China is somewhere between 50-60% of global demand/processing and there's supposed to be 18 fabs coming online in China just in 2024. At the same time, Chinese semiconductors are a secure source, so Russia should be able to buy semiconductors which are better and cheaper than anything Russian industry can produce.

Russia is in the position where it doesn't have the resources to do everything, so trying to duplicate Chinese efforts to build a non-Western semiconductor industry is doing to be wasteful, particularly since Russia is struggling to build enough weapons to simultaneously win a war.

I am not unrealistic. first i thought GDP is accurate measure of nation strength but now i am convinced Wealth and GDP are not the same. i read enough that the powers that matter in this regard will be able to impose Russian product on much larger segment of the world population and that include Africa, Asia, Europa, Mideast and India etc. where there is significant Muslim population increase expected. Its about control, surveillance and creating revenue streams just like Oil. Russia has to show first competency in Aviation both Fixed and Rotary wing and transition away from exporting raw gas/crude as soon. Let that Crude/LNG for global South
This Telegram not particularly state backed effort.
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A set of “well-known funds with stellar reputations” purchased the bonds, Durov said without identifying them. Telegram’s Hyman told TechCrunch that these backers are “highly sophisticated global funds who who specialise in bonds.”

These large ad compaigns in many countries cannot happen without boatload of money to create that Soft Power and this is Soft Power and enablers in Mideast that direct all those in global south to visit Moscow.

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I am not unrealistic. first i thought GDP is accurate measure of nation strength but now i am convinced Wealth and GDP are not the same. i read enough that the powers that matter in this regard will be able to impose Russian product on much larger segment of the world population and that include Africa, Asia, Europa, Mideast and India etc. where there is significant Muslim population increase expected. Its about control, surveillance and creating revenue streams just like Oil. Russia has to show first competency in Aviation both Fixed and Rotary wing and transition away from exporting raw gas/crude as soon. Let that Crude/LNG for global South

What Russian products are you talking about?
If I look at global manufacturing value-add, Russia is like at 1.5% compared to China.

And if we look at cars sales in China, we can see foreign carmakers being outcompeted. And the Russian car market has essentially become Chinese now. We'll likely see the same thing happen in the Global South, given time.

And when you're talking about control and surveillance, remember that Russia is relying on Huawei equipment for its telecoms networks. Western suppliers such as Nokia and Ericsson are no longer an option for Russia, and Russia doesn't have a domestic supplier.

And if you're talking about aviation, foreign airlines will be wary about operating an airliner from a Russian company which has been sanctioned. The EU already blocked the MC-21 airliner from EU airspace.

Plus I don't see how Russia can show aviation competency when:
1. the CR-929 airliner is becoming a Chinese project with the Russians as a parts supplier
2. the Russian MC-21 will face competition from the C-919, which should be a more widespread aircraft, cheaper and not subject to sanctions

This Telegram not particularly state backed effort.


These large ad compaigns in many countries cannot happen without boatload of money to create that Soft Power and this is Soft Power and enablers in Mideast that direct all those in global south to visit Moscow.

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pmc

Major
Registered Member
What Russian products are you talking about?
If I look at global manufacturing value-add, Russia is like at 1.5% compared to China.
how do you know Russia manufacturing value? as they are unique products for there circumstances.
just statement alone having transport working at 2.5 times of Soviet will tell you how big is aviation. Soviets have like over 900 IL-76 planes alone at the peak. than let count the others.
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Shoigu said that the level of cargo transportation in Russia exceeded the Soviet level by two and a half times, and therefore it is necessary to purchase more Il-76 of all modifications and - especially - double the number of An-124.


And if we look at cars sales in China, we can see foreign carmakers being outcompeted. And the Russian car market has essentially become Chinese now. We'll likely see the same thing happen in the Global South, given time.
looked at used cars sales data that i posted. Its Putin that is preventing Japanese and Koreans vehicles. otherwise Interest of Mideast are very different and they surely can subsidized thing better with bulk purchases than any one else.
This is one sided trade. they have to buy more to balance.
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And when you're talking about control and surveillance, remember that Russia is relying on Huawei equipment for its telecoms networks. Western suppliers such as Nokia and Ericsson are no longer an option for Russia, and Russia doesn't have a domestic supplier.
Russia is building its own network of 5 and 6G networks. and they now have access to global wealth / talent that was not before due to Ukraine.
And if you're talking about aviation, foreign airlines will be wary about operating an airliner from a Russian company which has been sanctioned. The EU already blocked the MC-21 airliner from EU airspace.
Mideasts want Russian products free from any other IPs. Arabs can also close Aerospace of both Africa and Mideast. Europe will get poorer and will come under dominance of Mideast. Almost every week Zelensky calling an Arab leader.

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Plus I don't see how Russia can show aviation competency when:
1. the CR-929 airliner is becoming a Chinese project with the Russians as a parts supplier
2. the Russian MC-21 will face competition from the C-919, which should be a more widespread aircraft, cheaper and not subject to sanctions
This is initial domestic production run in 5 years. once that run is successful than they can think about exports and newer models.
Sukhoi Superjet already on Mideast destinations and they surely made more than 200 and works on relatively long range 5 to 6 hours flights. Special flight squadron is separate.

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
how do you know Russia manufacturing value? as they are unique products for there circumstances.

This is the figure that Russia reports to the UN.


just statement alone having transport working at 2.5 times of Soviet will tell you how big is aviation. Soviets have like over 900 IL-76 planes alone at the peak. than let count the others.

If you look at the number of airliners and also passenger-km travelled, China is like 6x larger.
This is using the pre-pandemic 2019 figures, and I expect the gap today is even larger.

looked at used cars sales data that i posted. Its Putin that is preventing Japanese and Koreans vehicles. otherwise Interest of Mideast are very different and they surely can subsidized thing better with bulk purchases than any one else.
This is one sided trade. they have to buy more to balance.
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Sorry, I don't understand what you're trying to say.


Russia is building its own network of 5 and 6G networks. and they now have access to global wealth / talent that was not before due to Ukraine.

Because of Ukraine, Russia has lost access to global wealth and talent. That is reality.
And why are there reports that Russia wants to skip 5G networks and go straight to 6G?


Mideasts want Russian products free from any other IPs. Arabs can also close Aerospace of both Africa and Mideast. Europe will get poorer and will come under dominance of Mideast. Almost every week Zelensky calling an Arab leader.

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This is initial domestic production run in 5 years. once that run is successful than they can think about exports and newer models.
Sukhoi Superjet already on Mideast destinations and they surely made more than 200 and works on relatively long range 5 to 6 hours flights. Special flight squadron is separate.

Isn't the Superjet effectively on life support now?
Production has stopped? and the existing aircraft gained a reputation for being expensive and unreliable even before the war happened
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
And when you're talking about control and surveillance, remember that Russia is relying on Huawei equipment for its telecoms networks. Western suppliers such as Nokia and Ericsson are no longer an option for Russia, and Russia doesn't have a domestic supplier.
You are wrong. The Russians have their own 4G LTE equipment. And they should have 5G equipment eventually.
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Just think about it. The Russians make their own radars. And they even have cellphone jammers.
If Nokia and Ericsson, from Finland and Sweden, with populations smaller than that of Moscow can make such systems what makes you think the Russians cannot do them.

And if you're talking about aviation, foreign airlines will be wary about operating an airliner from a Russian company which has been sanctioned. The EU already blocked the MC-21 airliner from EU airspace.
The Russians will be able to sell to countries sanctioned by the West like Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, or North Korea. Not that this matters too much when they will be quite busy making aircraft for themselves in for the mid term.
They might also sell to countries in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia which don't fly into Western airports. They did in Soviet times.

Plus I don't see how Russia can show aviation competency when:
1. the CR-929 airliner is becoming a Chinese project with the Russians as a parts supplier
Other than some matter of prestige nothing changed really.

2. the Russian MC-21 will face competition from the C-919, which should be a more widespread aircraft, cheaper and not subject to sanctions
The Western parts suppliers will be able to squeeze the C919 to make sure it won't pose a problem for them in the mid term. They can do the same thing they did to the Superjet. Jack up the prices of the engine. And that's if they don't just sanction sales of the engine altogether. They did this to Russia in the 1990s. First they wouldn't allow Russia to buy American Pratt & Whitney engines for the Tu-204 until the Russian government dropped import taxes on Boeing aircraft so they could be sold to Aeroflot. Then the Russian government dropped the import taxes but the Pratt & Whitney engines were never delivered. Pratt & Whitney then acquired Aviadvigatel. Who made the Russian PS-90 engines for the Tu-204. And that's when Boris Yeltsin was President of Russia.

Isn't the Superjet effectively on life support now?
Production has stopped? and the existing aircraft gained a reputation for being expensive and unreliable even before the war happened
There was no production at all last year. They have been replacing all the components on the aircraft. They are flying right now an aircraft where they substituted most of the systems with Russian ones but that still uses the SaM-146 engines from Powerjet (UEC Saturn/Safran). The PD-8 (UEC Saturn) engines passed the flight tests on the Il-76 test aircraft. They also have another SJ-100 aircraft with the PD-8 engines that has been running tests with the engines on the ground. It hasn't received permission to do flight tests yet.


The issues with reliability were because of the engines and lack of getting spare parts and support on time. Once they make all the components in Russia they will be able to control that problem themselves. Besides this issue was overstated. In Russia the support was just ok. Several companies use the aircraft. Not all of them are state owned either. For example Azimut Airlines.

For existent Superjet aircraft they have a program of maintenance where they are making replacement components for things they used to import. They already made substitutes for the engine spark plugs and fuel filters for example. They made substitutes for the brake pads and are making substitutes for the tires.
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
A while ago they posted statistics of people with healthy habits and now crime statistics. People with healthy habits and lowest crime are muslims but Moscow have different kind of muslims. This Karelia is i think near Finland.

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The leader of the rating, as a year ago, was the Chechen Republic. Here in 2023, 14.6 crimes were registered per 10 thousand inhabitants. The second and third places are occupied by Ingushetia (40.8 crimes) and Dagestan (43.7). The republics of Komi, Karelia and Altai are named the most disadvantaged.

Rating of regions by crime level​

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pmc

Major
Registered Member
This is the figure that Russia reports to the UN.
do you seriously think Russia report accurate statistics to anyone outside? they may publish more realistic figures in RT Arabic as they derives soft power from it. Shoigu now saying that Russia Air cargo transport is 2.5 times of Soviet in operations. think about this statement. They also mentioned now arms production is greater than all of West.
thats Shoigu in 2011 when he was building Russia firefighting capacity. and Russia did fire fighting in many countries in later years so it is not like he lacks credibility on his subject matter.
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Minister of Civil Defence, Emergencies and Natural Disasters Relief Sergei Shoigu reported to Dmitry Medvedev on the Ministry’s performance in 2011.
In particular, the world's largest reserve of firefighting aircraft has been set up, consisting of 14 heavy aircraft and 124 helicopters. Voluntary fire brigades are being organised, especially in rural areas, and nationwide their figure has reached 170,000.
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also said that in 2011 the Ministry provided emergency assistance to 27 countries, including during a major disaster in Japan. These countries include Tunisia and Libya, as well as Nicaragua and Sri Lanka

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The Russian military-industrial complex produces more weapons​

than all Western countries combined​



If you look at the number of airliners and also passenger-km travelled, China is like 6x larger.
This is using the pre-pandemic 2019 figures, and I expect the gap today is even larger.
Russia using Mideast and Turkish airlines for international travel but that domestic tourism figure is already higher than Covid. Russia among top buyers of Mideastern and Turkish real estate showing high disposable income.

Sorry, I don't understand what you're trying to say.
do you think Arabs want to do one sided trade with any one which is not among them? and Toyota has like 7 decades of relationship with them and Korea just signed free trade. they want to built there own influence so trading has to go through them.
Because of Ukraine, Russia has lost access to global wealth and talent. That is reality.
Because of Ukraine Russia has gained access to global wealth and talent. certain things are not easy to understand without knowing many more things.
It is that extra wealth that give confidence to make such statement and it is the same wealth the keep tourism even higher the Pre-Covid. who are the tourists if people are working 24/7 in increasing industrial production or dealing with Ukraine?
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Putin appeals to Russian women to give birth to '8 or more' children​

 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
You are wrong. The Russians have their own 4G LTE equipment. And they should have 5G equipment eventually.
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You are contradicting yourself. 4G equipment under testing is not the same as actually having a telecoms equipment industry.


Just think about it. The Russians make their own radars. And they even have cellphone jammers.
If Nokia and Ericsson, from Finland and Sweden, with populations smaller than that of Moscow can make such systems what makes you think the Russians cannot do them.

The issue is the size of the Russian market to support sales. Nokia and Ericsson could sell to the entire European Union, and then they set the defacto global standard. In comparison, a Russian companies will really, really struggle to sell anything abroad because they will be competing against Nokia, Ericsson and also Huawei/ZTE.



The Russians will be able to sell to countries sanctioned by the West like Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, or North Korea. Not that this matters too much when they will be quite busy making aircraft for themselves in for the mid term.
They might also sell to countries in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia which don't fly into Western airports. They did in Soviet times.

The issue is that Russian products will be competing against Chinese equivalents, which should be able to outcompete the Russians.




Other than some matter of prestige nothing changed really.


The Western parts suppliers will be able to squeeze the C919 to make sure it won't pose a problem for them in the mid term. They can do the same thing they did to the Superjet. Jack up the prices of the engine. And that's if they don't just sanction sales of the engine altogether. They did this to Russia in the 1990s. First they wouldn't allow Russia to buy American Pratt & Whitney engines for the Tu-204 until the Russian government dropped import taxes on Boeing aircraft so they could be sold to Aeroflot. Then the Russian government dropped the import taxes but the Pratt & Whitney engines were never delivered. Pratt & Whitney then acquired Aviadvigatel. Who made the Russian PS-90 engines for the Tu-204. And that's when Boris Yeltsin was President of Russia.

But we can see that the C919 is replacing foreign components. The most difficult is the engine, but I would expect that to be done within 5 years.


There was no production at all last year. They have been replacing all the components on the aircraft. They are flying right now an aircraft where they substituted most of the systems with Russian ones but that still uses the SaM-146 engines from Powerjet (UEC Saturn/Safran). The PD-8 (UEC Saturn) engines passed the flight tests on the Il-76 test aircraft. They also have another SJ-100 aircraft with the PD-8 engines that has been running tests with the engines on the ground. It hasn't received permission to do flight tests yet.


The issues with reliability were because of the engines and lack of getting spare parts and support on time. Once they make all the components in Russia they will be able to control that problem themselves. Besides this issue was overstated. In Russia the support was just ok. Several companies use the aircraft. Not all of them are state owned either. For example Azimut Airlines.

For existent Superjet aircraft they have a program of maintenance where they are making replacement components for things they used to import. They already made substitutes for the engine spark plugs and fuel filters for example. They made substitutes for the brake pads and are making substitutes for the tires.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
4G equipment under testing is not the same as actually having a telecoms equipment industry.
Of course it is. It is just not a well developed industry.

The issue is the size of the Russian market to support sales. Nokia and Ericsson could sell to the entire European Union, and then they set the defacto global standard.
You don't know the history of those companies. When those companies started out with cellphones, the networks were only available in Scandinavia. The purpose was to serve remote Arctic locations with phone service. Only later did they use global standards.
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The combined population of Scandinavia is lower than the Russian Federation.

In comparison, a Russian companies will really, really struggle to sell anything abroad because they will be competing against Nokia, Ericsson and also Huawei/ZTE. The issue is that Russian products will be competing against Chinese equivalents, which should be able to outcompete the Russians.
It Huawei going to sell equipment to Iran? Last time they tried this it didn't go that well. If Huawei actually sold equipment to Russia then they wouldn't be needing to make their own equipment.

But we can see that the C919 is replacing foreign components. The most difficult is the engine, but I would expect that to be done within 5 years.
We can only hope that is the case.
 
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