Russia Economy Thread
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This indirect way of measuring GDP. 1.2 billion tons Cargo through railway but it does not say anything about Value of cargo or distance traveled. I think Distance traveled tonnage Russian railway will be in top 3. Railway and Road transport will gain in importance with ever increasing toll on Suez Canal.
US requires Turkey to stop accepting Boeing from Russian airlines
US officials are pressuring Ankara to ban Russian airlines from flying American-made Boeing aircraft to and from Turkey, reports . What does this mean?
Leaks from some "high-ranking American officials" referred to by the publication speak of actions taken by the United States before the new year. Allegedly, the Turkish side was warned that its citizens risk jail time, fines, loss of export privileges, and other restrictive measures if they provide services such as refueling and supplying spare parts for American-made aircraft flying to Russia and Belarus and back. .
No matter how strange it may seem at first glance, the most sensitive position on this list is precisely aviation kerosene, that is, refueling, points out Alexander Lanetsky, CEO of the consulting company Friendly Avia Support:
Alexander LanetskyCEO of the consulting company Friendly Avia Support“It is no secret to anyone in the market that it is Turkish companies and Turkey itself that have become the number one hub for the supply of spare parts for aircraft in circumvention of sanctions. Lack of refueling limits the airline's ability to fly far. You can fly from Russia to Tbilisi and back on one tank — the distance is short. And now to Istanbul, given that due to the hostilities there is a large overflight, one tank is not enough, it is necessary to refuel.
Since the regime of sanctions against Russia is not fully international, that is, it was not announced by the UN, but by individual countries, others are free to implement them in accordance with how they see the situation in general and their interests in particular. The West, in this case the United States, is trying to put pressure on Turkey. And she believes that it is unprofitable for her to join the sanctions, and does not do this. And for this she has motives. First of all, this is the upcoming beach season, says Yashar Niyazbayev, editor-in-chief of Moskovsky Komsomolets in Turkey:
Yashar Niyazbaeveditor-in-chief of the Moskovsky Komsomolets publication in Turkey“There is no way they can convince the Turkish side to join the sanctions. Therefore, they use every opportunity. Turkey does not pay attention to them, but when it comes to finances and these companies are somehow dependent on American financing, American capital, lending, then, probably, this can somehow affect. Every time Western sanctions are more sophisticated, they find loopholes. From Russia [last season] there were still a very large number of tourists, although these, of course, are not the same numbers as, for example, a year ago. And suddenly Russian tourists will not be able to fly, this is a very big problem for Turkey. Turkey can turn a blind eye to restrictions, as it has closed before. She said: I did not join the sanctions, not because I have good relations with Russia, but because I understood that this would harm me more,
The WSJ writes that US officials have warned that Turkish citizens are at great risk if they oppose US air sanctions against Russian companies. However, it is worth noting that back in November last year, the United States, albeit with many reservations, that these sanctions were being mitigated. True, one of the requirements was that the registration of a specific aircraft of a specific company was not in Russia, but in some other country.
To sum up: it is now completely impossible to understand whether Russian Boeing charters will be able to fly to Turkish resorts when the season opens there.
Japan expands sanctions against Russia, banning the export of vaccines and medical equipment
Japan has announced that it is freezing the assets of 22 individuals and 3 organizations from Russia. The sanctions included, in particular, Minister of Justice Konstantin Chuichenko, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, head of the Central Election Commission Ella Pamfilova, Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova. From February 3, Japan will impose a ban on the export to Russia of vaccines and medical devices, as well as robots, radioactive materials, equipment for nuclear facilities, oil and natural gas exploration.The website of the Japanese Foreign Ministry that the Irkut Corporation, the Moscow Avangard Machine-Building Plant and KamAZ PJSC fell under the sanctions. The list of individuals, in addition to the above, included Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko, Deputy Defense Minister Mikhail Mizintsev, General Director of KamAZ Sergey Kogonin, philosopher Alexander Dugin, member of the Public Chamber Alexander Malkevich.
According to a Japanese government , the export ban for 49 Russian organizations will come into effect on February 3. It will be prohibited to supply:
- nuclear installations and devices;
- equipment for exploration of oil, natural gas and processing of radioactive materials;
- chemicals, tear gas, fingerprint powder, dosimeters, electrolytic cells;
- equipment for the production of composite materials;
- vaccines, medical devices, diagnostic and test kits;
- commercial explosives and equipment for their detection;
- x-ray screening equipment;
- bearings;
- portable generators;
- robots, laser welding machines, large drilling rigs, electroplating equipment;
- substances used as raw materials for military chemicals.
Thats a big ban. Ngl, I am feeling some schadenfreude given all the "balancing" that Russia had attempted to do with Japan lol
Let them eat cake
More opportunity for Chinese companies
I dont think Russia was importing anything related to these equipment that are much value. It is Japan showing solidarity with Europe that it is acting tough.
why there is no ban on export of vehicles. and than there is third party transfers that Japan unable enforce.
why there is no ban on export of vehicles. and than there is third party transfers that Japan unable enforce.
Bloomberg: Russia's yuan reserves will run out in 2023 at $25-35 oil price
With very low prices for Russian oil, the country may run out of yuan reserves this year, writes . In addition, the agency told what are currently being discussed marginal prices for Russian oil products.
According to Bloomberg analysts, the reserves of the Russian Central Bank in yuan in terms of dollars can be 45 billion. And in order to cover the budget deficit, the authorities have already begun to sell the Chinese currency. As Bloomberg calculated, if Urals oil costs $25-35 during the year, these reserves will run out in 2023. But there is another scenario as well. If Russian oil costs $60 on world markets, then not only will the reserves not run out, Moscow will even be able to replenish them. But for now, if, again, Bloomberg is to be believed, Urals are worth less than $40. Bloomberg itself relies on data from the Argus agency, which tracks the movement of ships and does not take into account transactions on the "gray" market. In addition, in January the Russian Ministry of Finance that in December, when the ceiling had already been introduced, our oil was trading for about $50. Although it is clear that at this level, the budget will have problems. Opinion of the investment strategist of the management company "Arikapital" Sergey Suverov:
investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company“Russian Urals oil is now being sold at a price of about $50 per barrel, while the budget includes the cost of oil in the region of $70 per barrel, that is, the budget suffers obvious losses. In addition, the budget includes a fairly optimistic forecast for gas supplies. And, most likely, gas supplies from Russia for export will be much less than budgeted, which will also lead to a drop in budget revenues. It is very likely that the federal budget deficit this year will be higher than the 3 trillion rubles envisaged in the draft budget, that is, it could be much larger.”
And ahead is another event - the ceiling of prices for petroleum products. True, not everything is bad here. Probably, because of these sanctions, fuel will be more difficult to sell and will also require a discount. But on the other hand, the level of the ceiling, which , is quite comfortable. $100 for diesel and $45 for fuel oil. But diesel sells at a premium to crude oil, so right now it's about $100. And fuel oil is at a discount, that is, $ 45 is quite an adequate price. Dmitry Lyutyagin, an independent analyst, continues:
independent analyst“Diesel is at $100 per barrel and fuel oil is at $45, I have a feeling that overall these are more or less fair prices that do not reflect the level of the price ceiling that was set for oil. Let me explain that if we take the oil ceiling around $60 per barrel, then, taking into account these discounts and premiums, diesel should cost about $75 per barrel, fuel oil should cost around $35-40. Now, from the point of view of the Bloomberg publication, other quotes are being offered, in my opinion this suggests that there is a certain dependence of European countries and refineries on the supply of Russian oil products, because they offer more favorable conditions than what is currently formed for oil.
And Russia, as Bloomberg recalls, has leverage to replenish the budget. First, on behalf of Putin, the calculation of the price of oil for taxes will be changed. In order, as stated in the document, to minimize the impact on budget revenues. It is still unclear how this will happen, but, apparently, more money will be asked from the oilmen. And at the same time, as previously reported, perhaps from other large Russian industrial enterprises.
Secondly, the Ministry of Finance can afford to borrow more money on the debt market. That is, he will issue bonds, and banks will buy them with money from the Central Bank. Which, by the way, has already given rise to talk about a possible emission. But it's likely that it won't come to that. The government that the discount on oil is associated with the high cost of freight due to sanctions risks. And hope that this situation is temporary.