ROCAF Indigenous Fighter Program

The_Zergling said:

Taiwan's problem really isn't additional F-16s at this point - they're certainly nice to have, but the absolutely crucial thing is additional AMRAAMs, which the US is holding back on, making it so the ROCAF F-16 fleet can't fight at full strength (fire-and-forget BVR) for more than a single sortie on average.

Click to expand...

Indeed, I believe the ROCAF only has 200 AIM-120s which is about the same as the amount of Tien Chien IIs they have for their entire F-CK-1 fleet. They actually have a larger stock of MBDA MICA missiles for their Mirage 2000s (960) meaning Taiwan has more MICAs than either of their other medium ranged missiles combined. I would think any deal with Lockheed Martin, especially for a substantial order such as 66 aircraft, would include a large stockpile of AIM-120s. The only reason the original deal did not was because at the time of purchase, the F-16A/Bs purchased by the ROC lacked the proper software to work with the AIM-120 so instead they bought 600 AIM-7M Sparrows and 900 AIM-9M Sidewinders and their current stockpile of AMRAAMs were purchased later. The AIM-7M isn't that bad though and is roughly equivalent to the PLAAFs older PL-11A semi-active missile which is still in service (well, at least I think it is, I don't think PL-12 or PL-11B production would be so fast)

The_Zergling said:

Taiwan's problem really isn't additional F-16s at this point - they're certainly nice to have, but the absolutely crucial thing is additional AMRAAMs, which the US is holding back on, making it so the ROCAF F-16 fleet can't fight at full strength (fire-and-forget BVR) for more than a single sortie on average.

Click to expand...

What about the 218 C-7s ordered in 2007? The contracts have been issued so deliveries are probably underway, if not already completed.

Ok the US doesn't want Taiwan to have a massive arsenal, but it's not like they've been refusing to handover significant numbers either.

deleted

Mr T said:

What about the 218 C-7s ordered in 2007? The contracts have been issued so deliveries are probably underway, if not already completed.

Ok the US doesn't want Taiwan to have a massive arsenal, but it's not like they've been refusing to handover significant numbers either.

Click to expand...

No, the US indeed has been holding back, unless one can plausibly believe that the Taiwanese military really believes that they can fight with the limited amount of missiles they have.

For example, the first batch of AMRAAMs was held until it was determined that China had missiles with similar capabilities. Currently even if the C-7s have been delivered, that's roughly 400 missiles for Taiwan - not enough for war, and certainly not enough for live-fire training, which can only end horribly if shooting ever starts. This is completely ludicrous for a country that would have to depend heavily on its air force in the case of war, and there's no way the ROCAF leadership is fine with it. The only possible way the missiles aren't being purchased is that the ROCAF isn't asking for them (unlikely), the government isn't asking for them (also unlikely), or the US government doesn't want to sell them (more likely).

F-16s will never fight at full strength unless Taiwan creates some better and more missiles and bombs. America stresses defensive weapons.....so of course the amount of missiles being sold will be limited.

Click to expand...

I find this reasoning rather interesting, regarding the US emphasis on "defensive" weapons. In my eyes, given that AIM-120s and AIM-9s prominently used by the ROCAF are incapable of hitting ground targets, it means that they can only be used in defensive situations, unless Taiwan suddenly decides to invade China. I can see the argument for limiting AGM-84s, other stand-off AGMs, and *possibly* AGM-65s, though the latter is tougher given its limited role and range.

The_Zergling said:

No, the US indeed has been holding back, unless one can plausibly believe that the Taiwanese military really believes that they can fight with the limited amount of missiles they have.

Click to expand...

Yeah Taiwan needs more missiles. But it's difficult to know whether the US is strictly rationing them, Taiwan is gradually building up its inventory to avoid the missiles needing replacing at the same time, a combination of both, etc. The thing with the F-16s is that we know Taiwan has been asking for them and the US has said "not now". I haven't heard the same about the missiles so I'm not so sure it's the same case there.

I stress the "so sure".

Mr T said:

Yeah Taiwan needs more missiles. But it's difficult to know whether the US is strictly rationing them, Taiwan is gradually building up its inventory to avoid the missiles needing replacing at the same time, a combination of both, etc. The thing with the F-16s is that we know Taiwan has been asking for them and the US has said "not now". I haven't heard the same about the missiles so I'm not so sure it's the same case there.

I stress the "so sure".

Click to expand...

True. I suppose it's just easier for me to believe that it's a political problem, rather than the ROCAF not recognizing that it desperately needs more missiles. If Taiwan is indeed trying to gradually build up, that's fine - but it would need purchases of perhaps 400 at once, rather than 200. The point overall is that there currently are not enough missiles, and that's something that any halfway competent air force must recognize, even to the point of prioritizing them over new aircraft.

The_Zergling said:

True. I suppose it's just easier for me to believe that it's a political problem, rather than the ROCAF not recognizing that it desperately needs more missiles. If Taiwan is indeed trying to gradually build up, that's fine - but it would need purchases of perhaps 400 at once, rather than 200. The point overall is that there currently are not enough missiles, and that's something that any halfway competent air force must recognize, even to the point of prioritizing them over new aircraft.

Click to expand...

Perhaps the ROCAF top brass believe the only way to obtain additional missiles without raising the ire of the PRC and scaring away vendors is to have them part of a larger deal such as with Lockheed Martin? I think this all could have been solved with the aquisition of more Mirage 2000s (Mirage 2000-9's would have been an excellent addition to its 2000-5) when they had the chance since Taiwan has a huge stockpile of MICA missiles but as we all know, thats now impossible since production has ceased.

Dassault really shot itself in the foot when it stopped Mirage 2000 production, the Indian contract alone would have reason enough on top of any additional orders...

deleted

kliu0 said:

Taiwan doesn't trust the French that much.

Don't forget France is a supporter of ending the weapons ban to China.

Perhaps a merger of this thread with the Taiwan military news and discussion part II ???

Click to expand...

The French will sell anything to anybody it seems sometimes, even the PRC and the ROC at the same time. As Charles De Gaulle once famously said 'France has no friends, only interests'. While France may be in favour of ending the weapons ban to China, it is also more than willing to sell fighter aircraft to India and Taiwan (seen as Rivals to the PRC), President Sarkozy has also met with the Dalai Lama, refused to show up for the Olympics and has been critical of the PRC government as a whole. All of this which led to the climate of the Olympic torch run, eventually led to those boycotts of Carrefour Supermarkets in China with tacit support from government officials. France is dependable as long as one's pocket books can assure it to be dependable, and as seen by the 1990s sale of the Mirage 2000, or conversely the Chinese boycott of the EU-China Summit because of poor relations with France. France also doesn't seem to be willing to be intimidated by veiled threats and complaints from the PRC as other companies and governments are sensitive to.

deleted