As far as I know, the MiG-23K, along with Yak-44 and Beriev P-42, never got past the design stage.
In Russian service, the last MiG-23P (Flogger-G) variant was retired in 1998. The MiG-23-98 upgrade program was only successful in exporting few component upgrades to Angola and India. It's very unlikely that the PLAAF/PLANAF would acquire MiG-23 at this point, or develop a naval variant.
Currently Rosoboronexport is only offering 2 carrier-based combat jets, the MiG-29K/KUB and Su-33. The MiG-29K is lighter (~18,550 kg) and smaller than the Su-33 (~25,000 kg), which would enable smaller carriers to carry more aircraft.
Since India operated both MiG-29 and Su-30MKI, they could've gone with either MiG-29K or Su-33 without too much additional logistics issues. But for the PLANAF, I think the choice would be Su-33. Though personally, I think they're better off investing in Korea LPX style helicopter flat-tops at this time. The PRC doesn't own oversea territory and all of its territorial claims are within land-based aircraft strike range.
I'd put my $$ in:
* SSBN's & SLBM's
* Maritime strike aircraft
* Amphibious assault ships
For the amphibious assault ship strategy, I'd do a "10 year plan" and gradually build up the tonnage in 4 phases:
Phase 1 (2006-2007): Complete construction on the current 17,000 ton LHD, then re-design for flat-top (LP-X) style.
Phase 2: (2008-2010): Build a pair of the new flat-top LHD. I'd estimate the size to be 18,000-20,000 tons, and carry 6-8 helicopters, 2-3 LCAC's, 600-800 marines, plus equipment/vehiciles. Similiar capacity as Korean LP-X.
Phase 3: (2011-2013): Enlarge previous design and build 2 ships at ~30,000 ton displacement. This ship should have similiar capacity as the FS Mistral-class, with 12-16 helicopters, 2-3 LCACs, 800-1,000 marines, plus equipment/vehicles.
Phase 4: (2014-2016): Enlarge previous design and bild 2 ships at ~40,000 ton displacement, similiar to the USN Tarwa-class LHD in size. It should carry 20-24 helicopters, 1,200-1,600 marines, plus their equipment & vehiciles.
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This strategy basically follows what the PLAN does today, build a pair, then build an enlarged/improved pair, rinse, repeat. If you find a design that you like, you build additional pairs. We hope, with the experienced gained in gradually moving up the tonnage, the PRC shipyards would gain valuable experience in building even larger ships.
According to my timeline, by 2016 the PLAN would operate ~7 recently built large capacity LHD's, and the next progression would be to fixed-wing aircraft carriers:
Phase 5: (2016-2020) Build a pair of ~60,000 ton aircraft carriers with 30-40 aircraft & helicopter capacity. By then we hope the domestically-made next-generation carrier-capable aircraft should be ready. If building 2 is too ambitious, then 1 is fine.
Upon completion (~2020?), the PLAN would, at least in terms of hardware, take a giant leap toward catching up to the power projection capability of European navies, such as the RN with 2 x CVF carriers, or the French FS with Charles de Gaulle CV + PA2 CV. But experience will take some time to acquire.
In the mean time, I'd advocate turning the Varyag into a floating test platform for testing naval aircraft. The hull can be towed & anchored near-shore (or keep in dock), and its flight deck rebuild to new specs if needed. They can start off by purchasing a small batch of Su-33's.
