PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
The week of Sept 5, 2015, 5 PLAN ships transitted the Aleutian Islands within 12 nautical miles and this was the USA response:
Note that the USNavy did not warn the PLAN group as the Type 052D DDG Kunming warned the USS Lassen.
Today the USS Lassen transitted within 12 nautical miles of one of China's reclamation projects and this was China's response today:
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China does not ask permission of the US government to sail within 12 nautical miles of the Aleutian Islands, but demands that the US receive prior permission from the Chinese government to sail within 12 nautical miles of reclaimed reefs.
The contrast in response to *identical* situations is clear for all to see.
I think that's getting the goal backwards. Strong U.S. military presence in the region should ideally deter military "adventurism", so to speak, to preserve American economic and political interests in the region. One does not spend billions stationing forces overseas for the sake of stationing them.
I don't think the two incidents are comparable. The Aleutian Islands are not, as of 2015, heavily contested and there is no Chinese plan for prolonged reconnaissance in the area. A more apt analogy will probably be continuing Chinese naval and aerial surveillance of Guam or Hawaii.
In the end, I think this ended up just like the Hainan Incident in which both countries can save face. US assures its allies that it is still strong, and China has the excuse to build up military on the islands. The islands are not going away. China can still control the surrounding area later on when everything on the islands has been completely built. Just be patient, China.
Blackstone
Brigadier
USS Lassen "Illegally" entered Chinese waters? It's a man-made island on top of a submerged rock, and by international law (which China signed) it doesn't get 12-mile territorial waters. US and every other nation has the right to sail up to about 500 meters of such land features, anytime anywhere.
Blackstone
Brigadier
solarz
Brigadier
The US and China have different goals in mind.
China wants to consolidate and fortify its claims in the SCS.
The US recognizes that it's impossible to stop China's activities there, and aims instead to use this as a wedge issue to build a China containment alliance.
This latest stunt is designed to reassure countries like PH and Japan. China will respond by increasing military assets in the region. The US is probably counting on China to do exactly that so that they can further rally PH and Japan.
Unfortunately for the US, those two countries are the only cards it has left. SK can no longer be counted on to confront China, and Vietnam simply cannot afford to openly antagonize China. Neither Malaysia nor Indonesia had expressed any interest in joining the SCS fray. India needs China's goodwill to counter it's archrival Pakistan.
The only other possibilities are the three "poisons": Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. The Tibet independence movement it's going nowhere, the Dalai Lama is increasingly marginalized. Taiwan may help if the DPP wins the next election, but how much can they contribute? After all, even if they win, the DPP cannot stay in power forever, and the more stridently pro-independence they are, the more pro-reunification the KMT will be. Not to mention the US has no wish to confront China militarily over Taiwan.
The only thing left then are the Uighurs. They are a long shot, but they are probably the least bad bet out of the three right now.
China wants to consolidate and fortify its claims in the SCS.
The US recognizes that it's impossible to stop China's activities there, and aims instead to use this as a wedge issue to build a China containment alliance.
This latest stunt is designed to reassure countries like PH and Japan. China will respond by increasing military assets in the region. The US is probably counting on China to do exactly that so that they can further rally PH and Japan.
Unfortunately for the US, those two countries are the only cards it has left. SK can no longer be counted on to confront China, and Vietnam simply cannot afford to openly antagonize China. Neither Malaysia nor Indonesia had expressed any interest in joining the SCS fray. India needs China's goodwill to counter it's archrival Pakistan.
The only other possibilities are the three "poisons": Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. The Tibet independence movement it's going nowhere, the Dalai Lama is increasingly marginalized. Taiwan may help if the DPP wins the next election, but how much can they contribute? After all, even if they win, the DPP cannot stay in power forever, and the more stridently pro-independence they are, the more pro-reunification the KMT will be. Not to mention the US has no wish to confront China militarily over Taiwan.
The only thing left then are the Uighurs. They are a long shot, but they are probably the least bad bet out of the three right now.
And those billions of expenses, and for that matter the US economy as well, are funded by printing the US dollar, which is supported by the global presence of the US military. It is profitable overall for the US, and especially the military-industrial complex, to maintain geopolitical tension on the one hand, and find excuses of deterring "military adventurism" abroad on the other hand.
"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.", Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961.