Re: PLAN Carrier Construction
so, when PLAN is heading for CATOBAR - why should they introduce STOBAR carriers?
Sure, Liaoning is a special case - it was available and the hull was finished. Its good anough to train crews in carrier ops...
But if the cats are available for the second carrier, why should they stay at STOBAR?
I think it depends on how soon cats will be available...
I am sure work on cats is in progress and the PLAN knows how soon they will be available.
If they will be available in the next few years i dont think that they will start the construction if a STOBAR carrier!
Only if they see no possibility that cats are available within the next years they will build a second STOBAR...
My own personal opinion is that the PLAN is not ready to go cats in the time frame they are planning their 2nd carrier.
They definitely want to go to catapults and intend to go there. But there may be trade offs with their schedule and planning for naval aviation introduction that they are also not willing to make at this time in order to wait.
But, they have a STOBAR carrier now and are developing doctrine and policy associated with it. If they are not prepared to go CATS now, they will most probably do the following:
- Build their next carrier as an improved Varyag/Liaoning design. A design that from the outset will have probably a larger hanger and improve the number of aircraft they can maintain and shelter there, could very possibly have a smaller island and improve the number of aircraft they can spot on the deck, and may provide for a pair of waste cats (but not install them) when their cat systems is ready.
By doing this they will accomplish several very positive things right now.
1) They will introduce their own indegenous carrier sooner and get that experience under their belt.
2) They will have a second carrier where their maintenance and training is maximized with the Liaoning and improve the total cost of ownership over 30-40 years for both carriers and that will translate into a lot of money.
3) They will be able to continue to develop and produce J-15s without any significant structural change to the front gear to allow for CAT launch, and therefore minimize any schedule impact to current J-15 build schedules.
3) They will be able (if they so desire) to design in a provision for catapault evolution into this 2nd carrier so that at a later date they can install those cats either to test them and improve them for their enventual CATOBAR carrier, or, should they go ahead and produce a CATOBAR carrier first, be in a position to bring their second carrier up to catapault operation and proficiency through its next major refit.
All of these are very positive things.
If the catapaults are absolutely ready now and they are sure of it, they may elect to go there now...but I do not think they are ready now. And even if they were, they may well elect to not go there yet and get these positive benefits for the time being by making it a hybrid.
But if they are not ready for prime time catapult installation now...and I do not believe they are (that the PLAN is confortable with going into live production with their cat technology at this point)...then this path for an improved Liaoning STOBAR design provides the PLAN with a very cost effective path to continue their carrier and naval aviation development without waiting several more years for a complete CATOBAR carrier design.
My guess is that within two years we will know definitively which way the PLAN is moving.