PLAN Carrier Strike Group and Airwing

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

FuManChu said:

That's an important distinction to make. I'm sure China doesn't under-estimate the JMSDF - as isthvan pointed out, they have a light helicopter carrier under construction with another planned.

I have always wondered what will happen when China's first operational (as opposed to training) carrier is commissioned. It will give the PLAN a real boost, but at the same time its advantage could so easily be lost if Japan and South Korea go for them too. In some respects, I think the MSDF's new helicopter "destroyer" programme (the 13,500 t vessel we've mentioned) and the ROKN's LPXs are a preparatory stepping stone for such an eventuality.

The last thing the region needs is a naval arms race, though a cynic might say there's already a partial one going.

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There will be one whether or not people like it.

You have the 3 largest commercial shipbuilders in the world (in terms of tonnage). You have 3 pretty strong economy, although SK is a bit behind the other two.

And then you have the current quarrell between Japan and its two neighbours. Finally, you have the ambitions of China. I see China setting several goals for its navy, but one of them is probably reaching the level of the Japanese navy in terms of equipment. Whenever you have something like this, the gloves are getting dropped.

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

tphuang said:

There will be one whether or not people like it.

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Oh nuts. And there was me thinking optimistically the three countries could stave off such an event, despite those shipbuilding capabilities and their economic wealth.

Guess it's Plan B - hope they improve relations to the point where the arms race isn't put into use, as it were.

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

Armrace in the asian region is inevitable regardless of aircraft carriers. Chinese current military transform is so considerable that neighbouring countries cannot stand idle and just watch it.

I dismish the statements like "China should not expand and it's a threat to the world" or "Japan should not be conserned of the peacefull military expansion of china". I leave those to whose job is to wage propaganda.
But that doesen't dishmish the facts that are happening. And regradless what the political goals are behind this expansion or the political goals of those wathcing it from the front row, military expansions create expansion in it's neighbouring countries. Armrace are just what they are and if you want to argue it's existence or justification, that falls to the political discussion cathegory and its a issue of other forums, not SDFs.

So It's pointless to cry the wolf over this matter. China is rising. period. Japan and South Korea will follow this rising and most likely expand too. period.

So if/when China fields operational carrier it has an symbolic advantage over Japan and South Korea. This isen't the thread to determine what a single carrier can actually do for you navy so we seddle for the commonly acepted statement that a Carrier is a real card that gives you an edge in all naval comparissons.
China has an advantage but unlike Fumanchu stated, it wont be dishmissed so easily. Japan hasen't operated modern carriers nor have South Korea so to build up one and get it operational would take decades, like it took/will take from China as well. Both navies have to transform their whole doctirnes as carriers are the centre of all carrierpossesing navies strategies and doctrines. It's true that Japan is producing a DDH which will be able to operate helicopters but it's quite different compared to fixedwing carrier operations. The Landingships both navies posses are just what their are, a amphibious vessels which look like a carrier. The japanese ship doesen't have a hangar at all and the South Korean ship has a small hangar for two-three helos (the hype over the ship when it was launched was overestimated)

China has the poleposition in this carrierrace as it's about to lauch a fixedwing carrier propaply in next five years (tough it takes at least a decade to get operational airgroup and another to get that working effectly)and it will give it a advantage for decades for so against the two major Asian opponents.

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

I agree with most of what Golly said.

But I want to point out one thing usually ignored by many people: if we take non-military views into east asia's arm race, then china is just responding to What Japan has been doing for many decades. Japan has maintained a huge advantage over PLAN, yet China is the one being blamed as the threatening side.

That's why I said long time ago, the arm race already started ages ago, it's just that China was not able to participate.

So, yes, we should concentrate on the pure military part of the arm race and leave the other things out.

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

Gollevainen said:

China has the poleposition in this carrierrace as it's about to lauch a fixedwing carrier propaply in next five years (tough it takes at least a decade to get operational airgroup and another to get that working effectly)and it will give it a advantage for decades for so against the two major Asian opponents.

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It depends what kind of an advantage you're talking about. But I do not believe that any sizeable advantage will last for decades, at least where the JMSDF is concerned - I can't comment on the ROKN, as I don't know enough about it.

Neither country will wait until China has a fully operational carrier group, they'll act long before that.

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

zyun8288 said:

Japan has maintained a huge advantage over PLAN, yet China is the one being blamed as the threatening side.

That's why I said long time ago, the arm race already started ages ago, it's just that China was not able to participate.

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I wouldn't characterise that as an arms race. I would say that it was an issue of modernisation. An advancement of technology is not an arms race. What would be an arms race would be China, Japan and South Korea competiting to have the most carriers/building them because the others are.

If you think what is going on at the moment is an arms race then I think you might be surprised by is likely to happen over the coming decades.

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

zyun8288 said:

I agree with most of what Golly said.

But I want to point out one thing usually ignored by many people: if we take non-military views into east asia's arm race, then china is just responding to What Japan has been doing for many decades. Japan has maintained a huge advantage over PLAN, yet China is the one being blamed as the threatening side.

That's why I said long time ago, the arm race already started ages ago, it's just that China was not able to participate.

So, yes, we should concentrate on the pure military part of the arm race and leave the other things out.

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The Japanese were allowed to have a defensive technological edge in East Asia, because of their partnership with the US, and restrictions on offensive weapons. For example both the Kongo and Atago are Aegis-equipped ships, but not allowed to carry cruise missiles. The F-15J had downgraded ground-attack capability, and Japanese AF didn't have aerial refueling tankers until very recently.

The US (and various Asian countries) are concerned about PLAN's modernization, because the US lacks influence to control PLAN's hardware, software, and exports. The "ideal" condition to the US is if foreign military sales are tied to US approval. The system could be built elsewhere, but with key technology that require US-approved export license.

For example, the Korean KDX-III has 128 VLS launch cels, but each ship will only be equipped with 32 Tomahawks and 16 anti-ship missiles. The US is conservative (though not as much as Sweden) with offensive weapon sales and prolly won't sell more than what they think is needed. The S. Koreans are not likely to receive a large stockpile of Tomahawks, and will not be allowed to tamper or replace its conventional warheads.

In comparison, the PLAN is under no such restriction from the US, and if they wish, they could build SSGN's equipped with dozens of cruise missiles, or even tip Chinese cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. In addition, if Iran wants to buy, the PRC could export a large stockpile of cruise missiles. And if the Us object, the PRC could simply sell the manufacturing technology and allow Iran or North Korea to build as many as they can afford.

To cite another example, notice how quickly US-built aircraft stops flying once the flow the spare parts to Venezuela is stopped. In comparison, when France sold Mirage jets to Libya, they sold them with a large stockpile of spare parts and Qadaffi was able to keep them flying long after the arms export ban.

The US prefers to maintain its control over spares and munitions because it's a tool to advance its own agenda. This is a matter of national self-interest and not intended as a political discussion. =o

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

tphuang said:

I see China setting several goals for its navy, but one of them is probably reaching the level of the Japanese navy in terms of equipment.

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Back on topic and speaking of equipment...this is a pic of the Varyag I had not seen yet. Very good detail and close in from the aft.



...and these of the bow. The deck in these pictures is clearly covered over from the non-skid primer.





The deck appears to be getting in better and better shape. What do you think?

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

Jeff, that third picture looks like a zoomed version of one often seen before. Maybe it's just me, but perhaps you should check other pictures of it from that direction to see if that ship in the foreground is there too.

Re: Latest Varyag Pics

Jeff Head said:

Back on topic and speaking of equipment...this is a pic of the Varyag I had not seen yet. Very good detail and close in from the aft. The deck appears to be getting in better and better shape. What do you think?

[qimg]http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon/PLAN-CVVaryag-07.jpg[/qimg]

...and these of the bow. The deck in these pictures is clearly covered over from the non-skid primer.

[qimg]http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon/PLAN-CVVaryag-08.jpg[/qimg]

[qimg]http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon/PLAN-CVVaryag-10.jpg[/qimg]

The deck appears to be getting in better and better shape. What do you think?

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Still ,the lack of radar and sensor installation on Varyag hamper the chances of it entering PLAN service. Only when we start to see such installation on Varyag then we can clearly assume Varyag will enter service as first PLAN A/C. Hope u guys don't put too much hope on Varyag. I know Varyag was bought with an agreement from Ukarine that it will not use for military purpose and I believe the Chinese still abide by that agreement!