PLAN Carrier Construction

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
SinoSoldier said:
MAJOR NEWS

Admiral Yin Zhuo has claimed that by 2020 China will have 3-6 amphibious assault groups consisting the new class of LHA, each of which can carry 1000 marines and weapons some 7000 to 8000 kilometers away, and will be accompanied by carrier battle groups.

However, a newer report suggests...

1. The "large" LHA design has been rejected by the General Armaments Department
2. The PLAN is going for the 30k ton displacement design instead, which can carry 26 helicopters
3. Construction and design of the LHA is being fast tracked
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Seems too ambitious for me.

Certainly not six. Three would be a stretch since they have exactly none now and 2014 is starting tomorrow.

If they start the two new carriers in 2014, and if they start building these 30K LHAs in 2014, then by 2020 they could have three carriers (Liaoning + 2) and three LHAs built...but I doubt all will be commissioned and worked up by that date.

Building two full sized carriers and commissioning them both in 6 years is going to be a stretch. Building three 30K LHAs and commissioning all three in six years is an even further stretch.

As I say, they may have all five of these capitol vessels built and launched by then...but to have working CSGs and ARGs for them all by then just does not seem possible at this point.

Time will tell.
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
Jeff Head said:
Seems too ambitious for me.

Certainly not six. Three would be a stretch since they have exactly none now and 2014 is starting tomorrow.

If they start the two new carriers in 2014, and if they start building these 30K LHAs in 2014, then by 2020 they could have three carriers (Liaoning + 2) and three LHAs built...but I doubt all will be commissioned and worked up by that date.

Building two full sized carriers and commissioning them both in 6 years is going to be a stretch. Building three 30K LHAs and commissioning all three in six years is an even further stretch.

As I say, they may have all five of these capitol vessels built and launched by then...but to have working CSGs and ARGs for them all by then just does not seem possible at this point.

Time will tell.
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The first two Kitty Hawks were built simultaneously within a span of 4 years. It's entirely possible that China could surprise us with a faster rate of construction than we anticipated.
 
S

Skywatcher

Captain
latenlazy said:
The first two Kitty Hawks were built simultaneously within a span of 4 years. It's entirely possible that China could surprise us with a faster rate of construction than we anticipated.
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If they can get the money to do so. The PLAN has a lot of other projects going on right now.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
latenlazy said:
The first two Kitty Hawks were built simultaneously within a span of 4 years. It's entirely possible that China could surprise us with a faster rate of construction than we anticipated.
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I never said they couldn't be built.

I said that getting two carrier groups, and three ARGs up and running from scratch in six years is too ambitious.

There is a lot more to getting carriers and large LHAs operational and "Operating 8,000 km from home," than just completing their constructions and floating them out and breaking a bottle of champagne over them,.

The Kitty Hawk was laid down in December of 1956, launched in May of 1960, and commissioned in April of 1961.

The Constellation was laid down in September 1957, launched in October 1960, and commissioned October 1961.

Once commissioned an aircraft carrier goes through a 1-2 year work up period where it goes through more trials, gets and exercises its air wing, etc., etc. before it achieves operational status.

For example, Kitty Hawk, after commissioning in April of 1961, did not join the US 7th Fleet as an operational carrier until October of 1962. Though the Constellation was commissioned in October 1961, she was first transferred to the U.S. Pacific Fleet to her new home port of San Diego, California in July-August 1962. Then, in November, 1962 Constellation, with her air wing on board, commenced her workup exercises for her upcoming maiden deployment to the western Pacific as part of the U.S. 7th Fleet. Her first actual deployment/mission as an operational aircraft carrier took place later in 1963.

So, it took the US Navy, who at the time very already well experienced in carrier building an operations for over fifty years when the Kitty Hawk was launched, from 1956 until 1963 to get both carriers operational. Basically, seven years.

Generally, an aircraft carrier today takes even longer to build. Usually 4-5 years for constructions, one year for trials, and then commissioning and another 2 years for work up. 7-8 years.

The Chinese took eight years to refit the Liaoning and launch her. She was launched in 2011, commissioned in 2012, and now, it will soon be 2014 and she still has not got her air wing aboard yet. she is not a fully operational aircraft carrier yet...now eleven years into it.

The reality, IMHO, is that the two new PLAN carriers are bot going to be built, launched, commissioned, and worked up to an operational status in six years. Ditto on the three LHAs. I believe, even if they bust a gut, it is going to take them more like 8-9 years, and that will be a huge accomplishment. In fact, if they could build two new carriers and three LHAs and have all five operational in ten years it would be a significant accomplishment.

This is not a slam on the Chinese or the PLAN...it is just the reality of building, launching, commissioning, and working up major capital vessels like this in the modern era and in peace time.
 
Engineer

Engineer

Major
I believe carriers can certainly be built at a much faster pace than the rate that US has at the moment. The US simply chose not to go that fast since the country has a sizable fleet already. US's objectives are to maintain a constant number of carriers and to maintain qualified personals who can build those carriers. China has completely different needs to that of US, so US's carrier build rate is a not a good benchmark to apply on to PLAN.

As to LHAs for China, my opinion is that it is nothing more than fan boy's dream. The dream got repeated so often that people now believe it to be true. It is made up by those who want to see China building a fleet of mini carriers, because those people are too impatient to wait for proper carriers and mistakenly believe that effectiveness scales linearly with carrier size.

LHAs need carrier battle groups to provide air coverage. So, talk about putting the horse behind a cart if LHA were to be built before any battle group is readied. Also, since PLAN's budget is finite, a LHA project will eat right into the budget of actual aircraft carriers. With carriers having a much higher priority, I just don't see building of LHAs as realistic.
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
Jeff Head said:
I never said they couldn't be built.

I said that getting two carrier groups, and three ARGs up and running from scratch in six years is too ambitious.

There is a lot more to getting carriers and large LHAs operational and "Operating 8,000 km from home," than just completing their constructions and floating them out and breaking a bottle of champagne over them,.

The Kitty Hawk was laid down in December of 1956, launched in May of 1960, and commissioned in April of 1961.

The Constellation was laid down in September 1957, launched in October 1960, and commissioned October 1961.

Once commissioned an aircraft carrier goes through a 1-2 year work up period where it goes through more trials, gets and exercises its air wing, etc., etc. before it achieves operational status.

For example, Kitty Hawk, after commissioning in April of 1961, did not join the US 7th Fleet as an operational carrier until October of 1962. Though the Constellation was commissioned in October 1961, she was first transferred to the U.S. Pacific Fleet to her new home port of San Diego, California in July-August 1962. Then, in November, 1962 Constellation, with her air wing on board, commenced her workup exercises for her upcoming maiden deployment to the western Pacific as part of the U.S. 7th Fleet. Her first actual deployment/mission as an operational aircraft carrier took place later in 1963.

So, it took the US Navy, who at the time very already well experienced in carrier building an operations for over fifty years when the Kitty Hawk was launched, from 1956 until 1963 to get both carriers operational. Basically, seven years.

Generally, an aircraft carrier today takes even longer to build. Usually 4-5 years for constructions, one year for trials, and then commissioning and another 2 years for work up. 7-8 years.

The Chinese took eight years to refit the Liaoning and launch her. She was launched in 2011, commissioned in 2012, and now, it will soon be 2014 and she still has not got her air wing aboard yet. she is not a fully operational aircraft carrier yet...now eleven years into it.

The reality, IMHO, is that the two new PLAN carriers are bot going to be built, launched, commissioned, and worked up to an operational status in six years. Ditto on the three LHAs. I believe, even if they bust a gut, it is going to take them more like 8-9 years, and that will be a huge accomplishment. In fact, if they could build two new carriers and three LHAs and have all five operational in ten years it would be a significant accomplishment.

This is not a slam on the Chinese or the PLAN...it is just the reality of building, launching, commissioning, and working up major capital vessels like this in the modern era and in peace time.
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Was purely talking about construction. Totally agree about the extra time to get to commission, but not as certain about the 11 years with the Liaoning being indicative of time span for their later carriers. There's a possibility that once they've figured out how everything works and have gained enough confidence with the Liaoning they will dramatically speed up the process for the other carriers. Normally I would settle with a more conservative assessment like the one you've presented, but I'm inclined to think that this might be the case after the news that they were building two carriers simultaneously. That particular development reflects an unusual amount of confidence from a military that we've come to expect meticulous conservatism. I'm purely talking about the carriers right now btw. Not as bullish about the three LHA rumours. The rear admiral has a tendency to toot his horn a bit too loudly.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I think the original statement took liberties with what "having" an amphibious ready group (or CVBG for that matter) means, possibly with errors in translation, and/or dumbing down military realities for a civilian audience.

Also "3-6 ARGs" is too wide a confidence interval to give it sound credible. You only use "x number to y number" when you are unsure where your production will leave you between the upper and lower bounds at a certain point in the future.
3-6 ARGs are a lot of ships even if we take the minimum of 1 LPD and 1 LHA and two escorts, and the there is far too much uncertainty between having 3x4 ships in service versus 6x4 ships in service.



In conclusion, I wouldn't take this "report" too seriously. I mean sure, if they really push themselves the PLAN could possibly pump out 6 ARGs worth of LHAs and LPDs by 2020 (although only a few of them will be at FOC), and I don't doubt they'll have the minimal number of escorts necessary by that time either.

But let's wait and see. We all know an LPD and LHA expansion is coming, it is as inevitable as the first indigenous carriers. But whether yin Zhou's statement in this case is worthwhile is a whole different matter.

And again we have to wonder if the PLAN needs a new variant of the 072 LST
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Engineer said:
I believe carriers can certainly be built at a much faster pace than the rate that US has at the moment. The US simply chose not to go that fast since the country has a sizable fleet already. US's objectives are to maintain a constant number of carriers and to maintain qualified personals who can build those carriers. China has completely different needs to that of US, so US's carrier build rate is a not a good benchmark to apply on to PLAN.

As to LHAs for China, my opinion is that it is nothing more than fan boy's dream. The dream got repeated so often that people now believe it to be true. It is made up by those who want to see China building a fleet of mini carriers, because those people are too impatient to wait for proper carriers and mistakenly believe that effectiveness scales linearly with carrier size.

LHAs need carrier battle groups to provide air coverage. So, talk about putting the horse behind a cart if LHA were to be built before any battle group is readied. Also, since PLAN's budget is finite, a LHA project will eat right into the budget of actual aircraft carriers. With carriers having a much higher priority, I just don't see building of LHAs as realistic.
Click to expand...


One could say the same about LPDs though.
I don't think CVs are a prerequisite for LHAs, even if the former is arguably a more important capability for the PLAN to acquire. There are many situations where an LHA will be more handy than a carrier and also situations where a carrier may not even be needed. Certainly I don't think they must have a fixed wing aviation capability first before going for LHAs.
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
Jeff Head said:
I never said they couldn't be built.

................... The reality, IMHO, is that the two new PLAN carriers are bot going to be built, launched, commissioned, and worked up to an operational status in six years. Ditto on the three LHAs. I believe, even if they bust a gut, it is going to take them more like 8-9 years, and that will be a huge accomplishment. In fact, if they could build two new carriers and three LHAs and have all five operational in ten years it would be a significant accomplishment.

This is not a slam on the Chinese or the PLAN...it is just the reality of building, launching, commissioning, and working up major capital vessels like this in the modern era and in peace time.
Click to expand...

It is more likely in 2025. Even 10 years as Jeff mentioned above is doubtful
 
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