PLAN Carrier Construction

Jeff Head said:

Well, one thing is for sure.

If we start seeing two new carrier hulls under construction, one in Shanghai and one in Dalian this next year...we will see a HUGE amount of activity on our PLAN carrier thread building up to their launch.

Can you imagine the excitment if the PLAN launches TWO carriers in the same year in 2017 or 2018?

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Yep, heck even when they will be laying down the keel for the first ceremonial pieces would get a lot buzz going on. Getcha pop corn ready gentlemen!

Huitong is now claiming that there are two indigenous aircraft carriers that are under construction right now and another source is stating that the AESA-equipped J-15B might be unveiled next year.

SinoSoldier said:

According to some rumors, the General Armaments Department signed a contract with each of the Beijing-based China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC). The carriers with CATOBAR capabilities will have to wait until the competition for the Navy stealth aircraft between NO. 601 Institute and NO. 611 Institute is complete.

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Since the carrier is likely to outlast the planes by factor of 2 or 3, shouldn't it be the aircraft design that fits the carrier, not the carrier design that fit the aircraft?

chuck731 said:

Since the carrier is likely to outlast the planes by factor of 2 or 3, shouldn't it be the aircraft design that fits the carrier, not the carrier design that fit the aircraft?

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Similarly, doesn't the aircraft design pretty much set the capabilities of the carrier that supports and houses it?

chuck731 said:

Since the carrier is likely to outlast the planes by factor of 2 or 3, shouldn't it be the aircraft design that fits the carrier, not the carrier design that fit the aircraft?

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Well it is pretty clear that the J-15 is being heavily invested in and is intended to be their carrier strike fighter of choice.

There is currently nothing on the near term event horizon that suggested any change away from that.

My guess is, that the J-31...still in protype phase...is at least 7+ years away from any full production decision. Even then, if it was ever considered to be a carrier aircraft, it would most probably have been desinged to be able to operate off of the Liaoning STOBAR design.

So, two indegenous carriers with a similar STOBAR design to the Liaoning makes a lot of sense, and will be able to operate both of the PLAN's carrier capable aircraft, and particularly the J-15 which is what they are just starting to produce.

These carriers will save the PLAN a lot of money in terms of logistics and training with respect to their existing Liaoning. They will give them very ample time to consider and then design the next phase of their carrier ambitions/plans with an indegenous CATOBAR design which they then may build at least two of, starting sometime in the next 5-8 years.

This would give them a total of five carriers (which I believe the max number they will be looking for), the last of which is launched a good 12+ years from now and put in service in say, 14 years....2028 time frame

From that, outside of the engineering spaces, they make a similar design for their nuclear carrier (if they decide they need it) and that becomes the class they put inservice to ultimately replace the three STOBAR carriers we are speaking of now. But that does not start happening for 30 years.

Wow! China will have three carriers by 2017. Do you think that they will be equiped with catapults to take full atvantage of the J-15s range?

Liaoning herself already has 10 years of rusting in Ukraine, with interior spaces open to weather and bilge pump not running, under her belt. This probably did more of a job on her structural life than 10 years of real service with proper maintenance. So she would probably have an abreviated service life, maybe 15-20 years. So Liaoning replacement would probably have to start its construction before 2023 to be ready to replace her by 2030.

But the first domestic chinese carriers ought to have a service life of at least 40 years. So they won't need replacement till 2060ish. So that leave a 30 year window in which any new carrier construction would be addition to the fleet, not replacement for retiring asset.

So my guess is 2 domestic STOBAR carriers to be built between 2014-2020, coming into service around 2020 and fully worked up and efficient by 2022. Immediately afterwards Liaoning replacement will be laid down, probably simulataneously with a sister. This will probably be CATOBAR carriers right from the start. By 2030, when these carriers come on line, I expect the Chinese would be ready with a new indigienous CATOBAR aircraft ready to succeed J-15. As soon as these CATOBAR carriers have been worked up and are efficient, the 2 carrier built between 2014-2020 will go back to the yard for CATOBAR refit. Afer they emerge from the refit, Liaoning will retire, leaving China with 4 domestic conventional CATOBAR carriers. They will then start their first CATOBAR CVN.

If this pace is followed, and assume a 40 year service life, Chinese carrier force will reach a steady state size of 8 ships by 2060. Afterwards the same construction rate will only support replacement of retiring units and the fleet size will stay constant.

Miragedriver said:

Wow! China will have three carriers by 2017. Do you think that they will be equiped with catapults to take full atvantage of the J-15s range?

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If 2 new Chinese carriers are not ready for launching today - and we see no evidence whatsoever of any hull anywhere close to being watertight - then there is no way they will be available for service by 2017. If the new carrier keel laying happens today, she won't see service till 2019 at the earliest.

chuck731 is so correct.Building a CV takes time.. It will not happen over night.

AS an example it takes the shipyard in Newport News 7 years to build a CVN. Let's go to the shipyard in NGSS Pascagoula MS that builds LHA. Possibly this is the size ship China will build. I takes about 5+ years to build an LHA/LHD.

So if the Chinese cut the first steel today the ship may be ready by 2018..maybe.

bd popeye said:

chuck731 is so correct.Building a CV takes time.. It will not happen over night.

AS an example it takes the shipyard in Newport News 7 years to build a CVN. Let's go to the shipyard in NGSS Pascagoula MS that builds LHA. Possibly this is the size ship China will build. I takes about 5+ years to build an LHA/LHD.

So if the Chinese cut the first steel today the ship may be ready by 2018..maybe.

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Ready to launch by then if they start her next year like they say.

But then they have to trial her, commission her, and work her up. Launched by 2018, commissioned (with aircraft) by 2020, and truly operating an all eight cylinders by 2021-2022.