PLAN Carrier Construction

Ahem. Pakistan is on the wrong side of India from china to form be the location of a good forward support base in case of tension with India. Chinese task force would have to circumnavigate a potentially hostile India to get to it.

Furthermore, entire Pakistani coast is within 400 miles of Indian airspace, within the range of in refueled tactical airstrike launched from India, as well as a variety of cruise missiles launched from India. So in any tense situation with India, gwadar could hardly form a secure base for Chinese navy provided it is willing to deploy almost 5000 nm from strait of malacca all the way around India without intermediate support bases.

Pakistan would be a good and convenient port for Chinese navy when relationship with India is relaxed. It would not be a good place if Chinese navy wishes to deploy to Indian Ocean in response to tensions with India.

For china to assert a major naval presence Indian Ocean in case of high tension with India, china would need a major provisioning and maintenance support base on china's side of Indian Ocean, well outside the range of land based tactical air power from India, and ideally would also be situated to support naval control of the strait of malacca the closure of which would strand Chinese fleet in the Indian Ocean.

If I was India, And conflict with china is inevitable, and I know I can deprive the chinese fleet operating in my ocean of the logistic support they need and thereby force the Chinese fleet to leave without much risk to my own fleet by simply striking hard the bases in Pakistan, or Sri Lanka, or bangloresash, would I do it? Of course I would.

chuck731 said:

If I was India, And conflict with china is inevitable, and I know I can deprive the chinese fleet operating in my ocean of the logistic support they need and thereby force the Chinese fleet to leave without much risk to my own fleet by simply striking hard the bases in Pakistan, or Sri Lanka, or bangloresash, would I do it? Of course I would.

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Not against Pakistan, no. Maybe Sri Lanka or Bangladesh, but definitely not Pakistan, especially if they're not part of the conflict at the start. If they are, it still doesn't solve the problem of being flanked on both ends. Devoting resources to fight Pakistan and taking out a Chinese fleet on their Western flank makes their Eastern flank weaker and more vulnerable, where China's forces would be strongest. It's not like a Chinese fleet wouldn't fight back and play base defence, ESPECIALLY within the territory of a friendly country. Note also, flying through Pakistani airspace is not really an option without risks for India.

chuck731 said:

If I was India, And conflict with china is inevitable, and I know I can deprive the chinese fleet operating in my ocean of the logistic support they need and thereby force the Chinese fleet to leave without much risk to my own fleet by simply striking hard the bases in Pakistan, or Sri Lanka, or bangloresash, would I do it? Of course I would.

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Then that would be like signing your own death warrant well done

India doesn't have it in them to strike even when they are operating in their forward operating bases in a war footing never mind if Pakistan is not involved in the fight

India would never do anything to aggregate China because they know they already have thier hands completely full with Pakistan

In 1962 China asked Pakistan to open a second front unfortunately our leaders were in Washington having tea, then in 1965 we had to go it alone but since then it's always been about both nations and the militray relationship

China has its eyes in the Indian Ocean and there is many positions where they can station a Flotilla of naval warships which would give them full access to Indian Ocean from North, West and East you can't say same about India

India is a big military power but they don't have the logistical support to sustain a long war while taking heavy casualties, the supply chain is foreign and always need foreign help to change anything in the middle of a war, it wasnt until France and Israel supplied the target pods and missiles for the Mirage 2000-5 in Kargil War that they could bomb accurately from above 15,000 ft

chuck731 said:

China doesn't need to go to the Atlantic. If she wants to establish persistent and credible carrier presence west of Guam during period of international tension, she would have problems doing so without nuclear power or a large and vulnerable fleet underway replenishment capability.

China can deploy throughout Indian Ocean to east coast of Africa in peace, yes. But she would also have a great deal of trouble keeping up conventional logistic and fueling support for any forces there during international tension.

So if her strategy calls for her to sustain credible naval carrier presence more than, say 2000 NM from Chinese shores without first acquiring offshore bases, she would likely need something akin to an all nuclear task force.

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Not to get totally OT, BUT if PLAN ever puts a CSG in the waters off of Guam or land Marines on it's shores with hostile intentions we're talking some really really serious stuff going and and it also means all diplomatic measures have failed. By then it doesn't matter anyway whether the ships that got them there is nuclear powered or not.

Like others and myself have posted, nuclear power vessels require a lot of maintenance and disposal of it's core is monumentally more challenging and that's just the tangible aspect. Accidents are exponentially more dangerous and difficult to contain etc. It's all about cost/benefit analysis and I believe that due to the operational characteristics of PLAN at this point it would not serve them much good to have a CGN or even a DGN assuming they can do it.

chuck731 said:

If I was India, And conflict with china is inevitable, and I know I can deprive the chinese fleet operating in my ocean of the logistic support they need and thereby force the Chinese fleet to leave without much risk to my own fleet by simply striking hard the bases in Pakistan, or Sri Lanka, or bangloresash, would I do it? Of course I would.

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...also while your original argument started off in-topic in regards to PLAN carriers and potential operational scenerios you are dangerously going into the wrong direction by bringing in India, Pakistan and talks of conflicts.. just my advise before the old Jedi sees it.

Guys, this is a good thread...but it has gone way off course in the last dozen posts or so and is in danger of inviting Darth Vador to come in here, clean it up, stick a boot up numerous arses, and shut down the thread for obvious reasons.

Can we get back on topic to PLAN carrier construction before that happens?

We now have some serious indications that the PLAN is building a new carrier at Dalian and a large LPH at Changxing Island near Shanghai. Any new news on that?

Great advice Jeff! Let's all stay on topic!

bd popeye super moderator

Jeff Head said:

We now have some serious indications that the PLAN is building a new carrier at Dalian and a large LPH at Changxing Island near Shanghai. Any new news on that?

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Is the indication for LPH at Changxing still the hull module with large side sponsons for what appears to be an angled deck? If that is an LPH, it would be the first angle deck LPH I know of.

chuck731 said:

Is the indication for LPH at Changxing still the hull module with large side sponsons for what appears to be an angled deck? If that is an LPH, it would be the first angle deck LPH I know of.

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The sponsons do not mean necessarily that it is angled deck. The pictures of the one at Changxing Island that is further along than the one next to it, look far more like a straignt flight deck.

If that is the case, and I believe it is, then it will not be the first angled deck LPH you are aware of, or anyone else for that matter.

chuck731 said:

Is the indication for LPH at Changxing still the hull module with large side sponsons for what appears to be an angled deck? If that is an LPH, it would be the first angle deck LPH I know of.

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The name might be a little odd, just as the names destroyer and frigate, but an LPH with angle deck is well within my expectations. It is a good way to deploy fast UAV's. And the ship might be used for initial deck flying practice with a turbo-prop trainer, say one derived from the Brazilian Super Tucano.