PLAN ASW Capability

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The truth is that, in the absence of any peer aircraft like the J-20, an aircraft like the F-22 is at a big advantage against all ground/ship based air defenses and it will be able to evade shipborne defenses and easily pick off flying targets like patrol aircraft over the ocean before it can be engaged by them. Unless there is a revolutionary advance in sensors that renders the F-22's stealth irrelevant. So far, this hasn't happened, notwithstanding Russian claims of VHF/UHF radars' capabilities, but, a hint of something having come out that has made the F-22 vulnerable in the air will be the USAF going all in on a replacement for the F-22.

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If it is true then the Russians should invest money into peer aircraft again the F22, NOT air defence system.

It hasn't happens however. The Su-57 is a low priority project compared to the SAM systems and radars.


And in real life it happens like a game theory example for a military school student.
You have a B-42/2 , with (a.1) maximum acceleration, and you have an F-22 with (a.2) acceleration, a/b/c/d missile has ca/c.b/c.c/c.d cost ,and p.a/p.b/p.c/p.d kill probability, what is the minimum cost mixture and number of missiles to kill a given aircraft with say 99% probability?


And the F-22 on 400 km distance (and 10 km height ) will get six-ten advanced missile from two-three battery , and with 1-5% survival chance.
And during the dodging of missiles it can have a chance to skip into the range of a BUK/Pantsir or frigates , because the operators know the position of them, so why not scatter the missiles to drive the aggressor into the low range / high kill chance assets ?
OR can fly at low level slowly, showing itself as easy prey for the interceptors above/high speed, and from sub-optimal low observable angle.
 

schrage musik

Junior Member
Registered Member
If it is true then the Russians should invest money into peer aircraft again the F22, NOT air defence system.

It hasn't happens however. The Su-57 is a low priority project compared to the SAM systems and radars.


And in real life it happens like a game theory example for a military school student.
You have a B-42/2 , with (a.1) maximum acceleration, and you have an F-22 with (a.2) acceleration, a/b/c/d missile has ca/c.b/c.c/c.d cost ,and p.a/p.b/p.c/p.d kill probability, what is the minimum cost mixture and number of missiles to kill a given aircraft with say 99% probability?


And the F-22 on 400 km distance (and 10 km height ) will get six-ten advanced missile from two-three battery , and with 1-5% survival chance.
And during the dodging of missiles it can have a chance to skip into the range of a BUK/Pantsir or frigates , because the operators know the position of them, so why not scatter the missiles to drive the aggressor into the low range / high kill chance assets ?
OR can fly at low level slowly, showing itself as easy prey for the interceptors above/high speed, and from sub-optimal low observable angle.


Sure, believe that if u wish. Or you can believe that the Russians have spend a lot more money on developing the Su-57/Pak FA and the Mig 31 replacement than they have on the S-400.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Sure, believe that if u wish. Or you can believe that the Russians have spend a lot more money on developing the Su-57/Pak FA and the Mig 31 replacement than they have on the S-400.
Don't think so.

The Su-57 has lower priority than the S series.
An S-300/400 radar + launchers cost way more than an su57 or any other aircraft.

But they still prefer the SAMs .

Yeah , numbers.
Su-35 export price : 65 Million $
S-400 export price : 1500 million / battalion.

Both of them was introduced in the same year soruce:wiki.
Number :
39 S-400 battalion
100 Su-35 aircraft

Full cost of procurement:
S-400 : 58.4 billion $
Su35:6.5 billion $

I think it is safe to say "follow the money".

The Su-57 program has a program cost of less than 8 billion $

So Russia spend way more for SAMs than for fighter jets.



Means:
1. Russia has questionable mental capability, and they spending money for thing that can not do anything with the new generation of USA jets.
2.Russia know well the capabilities of the F-22/35/B2 , and develop the air defence accordingly.

But ,seemingly the Russians are confident about the capability of the S-300/400.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Su-35 is considered an intermediate program. That is one reason why the unit count is so low. A lot of money was spent on Su-30 upgrades for example. Because it is considered that the Su-35 does not bring that much extra benefit to be produced in large numbers vs an upgrade program.
Also, SAMs can react much more quickly than an airplane.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
We have gotten way offtopic here but i would like to point out two things:

1. Existing Russian SAMs like the S-300 and S-400 are not much of a threat to the F-22. Remember that the F-22 was designed specifically to fly into airspace protected by advanced Russian double-digit SAMs. Even if by some (unlikely) means these systems manage to detect and track the F-22 at a sufficiently long range, at the altitude and speed the F-22 flies, it is capable of easily out running any large SAM launched at it. The 400km range S-400 missile, for example, is not sufficiently maneuvrable (even more so at the altitude an F-22 flies) to be able to hit a F-22 and the F-22's defensive systems allow it to stay out of the lethal radius of more maneuvrable and shorter range SAMs when in contested airspace.

I don't think so F22 enter service in 2005 So they must been designed 10 years prior more likely 15 years prior They might be designed to counter SA 300 an older system
SA 400 enter service in 2007 So the US has no way of knowing SA 400 spec
After all F22 is OLD technology by now

US nuclear Submarine base is Guam China did plant highly sensitive sensor in Marianna trenches close to Guam and They should be finish with building underwater great wall by now
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Add to that 3 Surtass and proliferation of KQ 200 You had one heck of anti submarine warfare in place by now So to assume that China is helpless in ASW is a bit outdated
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Newer technology is in pipeline
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7aY1qjq.jpg
 
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kwaigonegin

Colonel
I don't think so F22 enter service in 2005 So they must been designed 10 years prior more likely 15 years prior They might be designed to counter SA 300 an older system
SA 400 enter service in 2007 So the US has no way of knowing SA 400 spec
After all F22 is OLD technology by now

US nuclear Submarine base is Guam China did plant highly sensitive sensor in Marianna trenches close to Guam and They should be finish with building underwater great wall by now
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Add to that 3 Surtass and proliferation of KQ 200 You had one heck of anti submarine warfare in place by now So to assume that China is helpless in ASW is a bit outdated
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Newer technology is in pipeline
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7aY1qjq.jpg

Not necessarily.. you do not design a weapon system only to fight today’s technologies but tomorrow’s also. While it is true that no one would’be known the specifics of a S400 etc., it’s highly likely if not expected that the F22 designers would’ve most certainly taken into account projected capabilities of future SAM systems and aircrafts.
With that being said, the S400 is certainly a highly sophisticated and capable system. If it manages to track and lock on, the F22 would certainly have his work cut.
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Not necessarily.. you do not design a weapon system only to fight today’s technologies but tomorrow’s also. While it is true that no one would’be known the specifics of a S400 etc., it’s highly likely if not expected that the F22 designers would’ve most certainly taken into account projected capabilities of future SAM systems and aircrafts.
With that being said, the S400 is certainly a highly sophisticated and capable system. If it manages to track and lock on, the F22 would certainly have his work cut.
Everyone try to design the weapons for future treats.

Including the russians/chinese as well.
So, saying " the f22/35 superiors because they think ahead" is true only if the Russians/Chinese are not thinking ahead : )


Anyway, the F-22 has no VHF cross section reducing capability, the f-35 has (due to graphene or carbon nanotubes ) maybe 2-10 db.
It is from the net/comments from russian officials : )


Type 052 has a YAGI VHF/UHF radar, than can be strong enough to spot it, in worst case it will be degraded to the third detection distance.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Now this is real news the supposed invincibility of US submarine is under threat via Emperor
Another novel approach to detect Sub using LIDAR( Laser Identification And Ranging) and Microwave radar,Satellite in combination with supercomputer and AI. It is powerful tool
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Will China’s new laser satellite become the ‘Death Star’ for submarines?
Scientists are working on a device they hope will be able to reveal the location of a target as far as 500 metres below the ocean surface

PUBLISHED : Monday, 01 October, 2018, 8:33am
UPDATED : Monday, 01 October, 2018, 1:53pm

Stephen Chen

China is developing a satellite with a powerful laser for anti-submarine warfare that researchers hope will be able to pinpoint a target as far as 500 metres below the surface.

It is the latest addition to the country’s expanding deep-sea surveillance programme, and aside from targeting submarines – most operate at a depth of less than 500 metres – it could also be used to collect data on the world’s oceans.

Project Guanlan, meaning “watching the big waves”, was officially launched in May at the Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology in Qingdao, Shandong. It aims to strengthen China’s surveillance activities in the world’s oceans, according to the laboratory’s website.

Scientists are working on the satellite’s design at the laboratory, but its key components are being developed by more than 20 research institutes and universities across the country.

Song Xiaoquan, a researcher involved in the project, said if the team can develop the satellite as planned, it will make the upper layer of the sea “more or less transparent”.

“It will change almost everything,” Song said.

While light dims 1,000 times faster in water than in the air, and the sun can penetrate no more than 200 metres below the ocean surface, a powerful artificial laser beam can be 1 billion times brighter than the sun. But this project is ambitious – naval researchers have tried for more than half a century to develop a laser spotlight for hunting submarines using technology known as light detection and ranging (lidar).

In theory, it works like this – when a laser beam hits a submarine, some pulses bounce back. They are then picked up by sensors and analysed by computer to determine the target’s location, speed and three-dimensional shape.

But in real life, lidar technology can be affected by the device’s power limitations, as well as cloud, fog, murky water – and even marine life such as fish and whales.

Added to that, the laser beam deflects and scatters as it travels from one body of water to another, making it more of a challenge to get a precise calculation.

Experiments carried out by the United States and former Soviet Union achieved maximum detection depths of less than 100 metres, according to openly available information.

That range has been extended in recent years by the US in research funded by Nasa and the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). A device developed by DARPA, for example, was mounted on a spy plane and achieved reliable results at a depth of 200 metres, detecting targets as small as sea mines.

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE?
But some doubt whether the Chinese team will be able to go any further with its device.

“Five hundred metres is ‘mission impossible’,” said a lidar scientist with the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who is not involved in the project.

“They [project researchers] won’t be able to break through the darkness guarded by Mother Nature – unless of course they are Tom Cruise, armed with some secret weapons,” said the researcher, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Still, the government has agreed to fund the research – in part because the team has come up with an innovative approach that has not been tried before, according to a scientist involved in the project who was also speaking on condition of anonymity.

The device is designed to generate high-power laser beam pulses in different colours, or frequencies, that allow sensitive receivers to pick up more information from various depths. Those laser beams can scan an area as wide as 100km, or concentrate on one spot just 1km wide.


It will be used in conjunction with a microwave radar, also mounted on the satellite, to better identify targets. Although the radar cannot penetrate water, it can measure the surface movement with extremely high accuracy – so when a moving submarine creates small disturbances on the surface, for example, the radar will tell the satellite where to throw the laser beam.

The satellite will use lidar technology and a microwave radar to identify targets. Image: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Once it has been developed, the laser device is likely to be made by the Xian Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences in Shaanxi province. The institute gained attention recently for the lightweight laser weapons it is developing, particularly a device the size of an assault rifle that it claims can set fire to a target from nearly 1km away.

Zhang Tinglu, another researcher involved in the project, said the main target for the satellite was the thermocline – a thin layer of water where the temperature changes abruptly.

He declined to elaborate on the role of the satellite in anti-sub warfare, but the thermocline is known to be important for submarine captains because it can reflect active sonar and other acoustic signals. That means a vessel could potentially avoid detection in the thermocline, but not by a laser beam.

Song said the team aimed to use every available sensing method to achieve the maximum possible depth of detection.

“Sometimes there may not be enough light to reach 500 metres and back, but we can still try to work out what’s down there by taking an indirect measurement at a shallower depth,” he said.

The laboratory has yet to give any indication as to when the satellite will be ready, but Song said the team was under pressure. “There’s still heaps of problems that we need to solve,” he said.

SURVEILLANCE NETWORK
China has been investing heavily in military hardware, including anti-submarine technology, as it grows increasingly assertive in the region and beyond.

Last year, Chinese scientists claimed to have made a breakthrough in magnetic detection technology with a device that can monitor tiny disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field caused by metallic objects such as submarines.

Researchers are also working on sensors using cutting-edge quantum technology to chase the gravitational abnormality that a submarine creates in a large body of water.

Powerful listening devices have also been planted in strategic seabeds near the American naval base in Guam and in the South China Sea, some of which can “hear” low-frequency sounds from more than 1,000km away.

China is also developing underwater gliders and high-speed underwater drones to collect information on a large scale in global waters.

At the national marine science lab in Qingdao, researchers are working on an exascale supercomputer called “Deep Blue Brain” that, when completed in 2020, aims to be the most powerful computer on the planet – about 1,000 times faster than the fastest computers today.

That project also ties in with the laser device – data collected by the satellite and other assets in China’s global ocean surveillance network will be streamed to the supercomputer in Qingdao for research and analysis.


The laboratory’s website says the supercomputer will then use the masses of data along with artificial intelligence to recreate the world’s oceans, in unprecedented detail, in digital form. The Chinese government says it wants to use that “virtual ocean” to help forecast events ranging from extreme weather to the likely outcome of a sea battle, based on the conditions.
 
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asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
During the Cold War satellites were tested for non acoustic anti submarine warfare (NAASW) this is not new

However using them for a practical purpose to detect and track a submerged submarine is a big fail

You simply cannot continuously track submerged submarine around the clock in open ocean with satellites

As a matter of fact you would even be hard pressed to track a carrier strike group on the surface with full spectrum of assets like UUVs, UAVs, under sea sensors, submarines, warships, aircraft and helicopters on a 24/7 365 basis let alone a submarine
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
There are 30 years difference between cold war era satellite and the latest generation satellite A LOT of technology has advanced in between the time So Your knowledge about satellite is probably about 30 years behind
Rocket can be manufacture cheaper today and Nano satellite is all the rage now. Lidar is so common and cheap today that they are used in driver less car in combination with AI. Microwave radar has been miniaturize and use in brimstone missile. Supercomputer is reality and china has plenty of it So they have all the building block. All they have to do is getting lidar that can pierce 500 m into the sea in all weather

China now has low cost Kuaizhou satellite and they already has new rocket manufacturing base in Wuhan that will produced about 50 rocket per years Having 30 satellites and relaying satellite should be able to keep watch of every ship in western pacific in combination with AIS
In fact plan is now afoot to build just that
China to build satellites to monitor 'every reef and ship' in South China Sea: Reports
nz-space-150818.jpg

Two BeiDou-3 satellites via a single carrier rocket take off at the Xichang Satellite Launch Centre in Sichuan, China, on Nov 5, 2017. PHOTO: REUTERS
PUBLISHED
AUG 16, 2018, 12:36 PM SGT
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BEIJING/HONG KONG - China will build commercial satellites to monitor "every reef and ship" in the contested South China Sea to safeguard national sovereignty and bolster President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road initiative, reports said.

The monitoring network, to be completed by 2021, will cover as far as the Indian Ocean and part of the Strait of Malacca, experts were quoted as saying, and give China an advantage in negotiating the demarcation of the sea.

In all, six optical satellites, two hyperspectral satellites and two radar satellites will keep a real-time daily watch on the contested waters and monitor key areas several times a day as part of the Hainan satellite constellation system, South China Morning Post reported on Thursday (Aug 16).

Mr Yang Tianliang, director of the academy's Sanya Institute of Remote Sensing, was quoted as saying the network would enable the authorities based in Hainan to speed up their response to emergencies, more effectively administer the South China Sea, and improve exploration and development of the resource-rich waters.

"Each reef and island as well as each vessel in the South China Sea will be under the watch of the 'space eyes'," Mr Yang said. "The system will reinforce national sovereignty, protection of fisheries, and marine search and rescue."

The programme is being carried out by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and is expected to be completed by 2021.

In the programme's first phase, three of the optical satellites will be launched in the second half of next year. They will be equipped with optical remote sensors, a system to identify ships and cameras designed to monitor the ocean's surface.

The satellites will be able to observe the South China Sea "within days compared to the current two to three months," Mr Yang told the Global Times on Wednesday.

The two hyperspectral satellites to be launched in the second phase in 2020 will be able to assess water conditions, while the synthetic aperture radar satellites to be sent into orbit in the third phase will be able to provide all-weather, high-definition monitoring.

Mr Yang said that when the network is completed, it will cover the entire area between the 30th north and south parallels, and could offer "seamless monitoring and receiving system" of tropical regions.

The satellites will also be capable of monitoring the environment and disasters, and the information "can be readily provided to less developed countries along the Belt and Road initiative, if needed", he said.

Mr Chen Xiangmiao, a research fellow at the Hainan-based National Institute for the South China Sea, said the network can cover "important areas such as the Indian Ocean and part of the Strait of Malacca".

The satellites will be of great importance in terms of defending territorial sovereignty, marine exploration, domestic fisheries security and cooperation with surrounding countries on marine issues, he added, and also give China an advantage in negotiating the demarcation of the South China Sea.

The oil and resource-rich waters of the South China Sea are claimed by China, the Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan.

Tensions have risen in the area with China's construction of artificial islands equipped with military facilities, and the deployment of military vessels by other claimants and the United States.
 
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