PLAN Amphibious assault capability

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If China is willing to, they could defeat Taiwan in a few hours.

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and many have said it to you even more times that it cannot. Not with its current armament and expecially, not with its current organisation and level of seamanship.

But that figth was done in the thread in members club room and someone wished to know more, please browse it there, but i would really like to keep the actual military forums of SDF solely in realms of reality...

Although engaging in redundant arguments is not an exercise I want to repeat endlessly, I have to establish the fact that your assessment about PLA's insufficient capabilities regarding the implementation of a successful military campaign against separatists on Taiwan is an obsolete estimation, dear Gollevainen. :coffee:

Nevertheless here comes the repetition:

1. Sigh, there will be no D-Day reloaded and the campaign for reestablishing chinese sovereignty over Taiwan will be a comprehensive, swift and multilayered truly 21st century style military action. Of course there are still existing weaknesses (mainly in PLAN) and a number of additional DDG, FFG, LPD and a variety of amphibious vessels will have to come on line for fixing these deficiencies but as Vlad has pointed out correctly: this job will be done around 2010.
(and as for your criticism of chinese ´seamanship´: apart from the indisputable improvements in training and proficiency of chinese soldiers in the last decade; their objective would be taking an island 200 km off their coast and not the Hawaii archipelago! )

2. Focussing only on some perhaps even minor military details (e.g. how many AMRAAM's does ROCAF have, how much training have their pilots on Mirage 2000) is falling in the trap of missing the broader strategic perspective. China has powerful non military but nevertheless very effective coercive instruments at hand to manipulate developments on Taiwan in a direction that will certainly prove satisfactory for China's interests. An escalation to war is not desirable for the leadership in Beijing and they will go the ´extra mile´to prevent that from happening but if the ´unthinkable´happens China will employ every strategic and tactical instrument well beyond ´raw force´. Speculation about how a ´soft war campaign´against Taiwan would actually develop are rife on some chinese forums and I have to admit that most scenarios described there are pure fantasy (an especially wonky guy posted that Beijing should take some 200 bn$ out of their BoC reserve stash of more than 1.2 trn $ and pay out every ROCA officer/separatist politician with a million in cash and some classy real estate for him and his familiy in Canada, US or Europe! :roll: ) but at least Chinas incessantly growing tremendous trade and financial power has to be figured in as a potentially decisive factor in a ´Taiwan conflict´ scenario.

Violet Oboe said:

1. Sigh, there will be no D-Day reloaded and the campaign for reestablishing chinese sovereignty over Taiwan will be a comprehensive, swift and multilayered truly 21st century style military action. Of course there are still existing weaknesses (mainly in PLAN) and a number of additional DDD, FFG, LPD and a variety of landing vessels will have to come on line for fixing these deficiencies but as Vlad has pointed out correctly: this job will be done around 2010.
(and as for your criticism of chinese ´seamanship´: apart from the indisputable improvements in training and proficiency of chinese soldiers in the last decade; their objective would be taking an island 200 km off their coast and not the Hawaii archipelago! )

2. Focussing only on some perhaps even minor military details (e.g. how many AMRAAM's does ROCAF have, how much training have their pilots on Mirage 2000) is falling in the trap of missing the broader strategic perspective. China has powerful non military but nevertheless very effective coercive instruments at hand to manipulate developments on Taiwan in a direction that will certainly prove satisfactory for China's interests. An escalation to war is not desirable for the leadership in Beijing and they will go the ´extra mile´to prevent that from happening but if the ´unthinkable´happens China will employ every strategic and tactical instrument well beyond ´raw force´. Speculation about how a ´soft war campaign´against Taiwan would actually develop are rife on some chinese forums and I have to admit that most scenarios described there are pure fantasy (an especially wonky guy posted that Beijing should take some 200 bn$ out of their BoC reserve stash of more than 1.2 trn $ and pay out every ROCA officer/separatist politician with a million in cash and some classy real estate for him and his familiy in Canada, US or Europe! :roll: ) but at least Chinas incessantly growing tremendous trade and financial power has to be figured in as a potentially decisive factor in a ´Taiwan conflict´ scenario.

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1) Please define re-establishing "Chinese sovereignty" over Taiwan. Do you mean merely inflicting massive physical damage to Taiwan? If so, yes, I concur with you that by 2010, China will have more than enough capability for that. But if you mean actual occupation, I seriously doubt it. 2010 is less than 3 years away. Are you telling me in 3 years time, China will have a fleet of modern amphibious assault equipment ready, primed, and trained? How many troops do you need to ferry across the strait for occupation? And you have to do all this in hours or a few days at best before the world responds appropriately. I understand their's pride and enthusiasm involved but that doesn't translate into appropriate resources and skill. PLA couldn't even take Quemoy (Kinmen) back then and it's directly across from Fujian. And another poster mentioned airpower. Yes, much better than WW2 but Yugoslavia has proven that even with modern airpower, if you don't have boots on the ground, you do not have control.

2) What does soft power have to do with a military conflict over Taiwan? If a military conflict erupts, soft power has no effect from that moment on.

@dear joshuatree:
I recommend that you pay a visit to Shanghai, Beijing or Guangzhou and please avoid the usual ´tourist traps´ ! After a few days you will get the inadvertant feeling that being chinese is a complicated thing but this peculiar thing transcends four millenia of common history. The existence of a separatist entity on Taiwan is a mere ephemeral phase in the history of the Motherland and the Chinese on both sides of the straits will prevail in ending this sad situation since they are from the same ethnic and cultural strain of civilization.
China had ups and downs in her long life as a nation but in the 21st century ´Dongfeng´is definitely blowing in the ´right´direction after nearly 200 years of bringing havoc on the middle kingdom.

Contrary to your beliefs ´soft power´is very important in a war situation since it impedes the weaker party to conduct the war in the necessary way. Just for your information what soft power can mean: In the year 2010 the Bank of China will have amassed 3000 bn$ of reserves equivalent to the annual GDP of Germany and six times that of Taiwan. This giant sum will be directed by the fingertips of the BoC governor (rather his secretary perhaps... ) and nobody in New York and Tokyo will dare to test the resolve of China regarding the Taiwan question since they are well aware the world of finance will tumble to the most catastrophic crash since 1929 if a confrontation is not carefully avoided by both. The money people in New York are tough but they are also keeping their figures clean and are consequently aware that the price will be too high for being worth it (and if that is not sufficient to cool down a potential hothead in the White House a phone call by Sam Walton jr. certainly will have that effect! ).

Additionally there exists a very chinese form of democracy on Taiwan and at least in part they are very successful in emulating the US: It is simply the best system money can buy!

Violet Oboe said:

@dear joshuatree:
I recommend that you pay a visit to Shanghai, Beijing or Guangzhou and please avoid the usual ´tourist traps´ ! After a few days you will get the inadvertant feeling that being chinese is a complicated thing but this peculiar thing transcends four millenia of common history. The existence of a separatist entity on Taiwan is a mere ephemeral phase in the history of the Motherland and the Chinese on both sides of the straits will prevail in ending this sad situation since they are from the same ethnic and cultural strain of civilization.
China had ups and downs in her long life as a nation but in the 21st century ´Dongfeng´is definitely blowing in the ´right´direction after nearly 200 years of bringing havoc on the middle kingdom.

Contrary to your beliefs ´soft power´is very important in a war situation since it impedes the weaker party to conduct the war in the necessary way. Just for your information what soft power can mean: In the year 2010 the Bank of China will have amassed 3000 bn$ of reserves equivalent to the annual GDP of Germany and six times that of Taiwan. This giant sum will be directed by the fingertips of the BoC governor (rather his secretary perhaps... ) and nobody in New York and Tokyo will dare to test the resolve of China regarding the Taiwan question since they are well aware the world of finance will tumble to the most catastrophic crash since 1929 if a confrontation is not carefully avoided by both. The money people in New York are tough but they are also keeping their figures clean and are consequently aware that the price will be too high for being worth it (and if that is not sufficient to cool down a potential hothead in the White House a phone call by Sam Walton jr. certainly will have that effect! ).

Additionally there exists a very chinese form of democracy on Taiwan and at least in part they are very successfull in emulating the US: It is simply the best system money can buy!

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Uh...ok......what does visiting Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou and getting that inadvertent feeling that being Chinese is complicated have anything to do with the thread topic, PLAN Amphibious assault capability and the earlier boast that China can take over Taiwan in hours if it wanted to? Sounds like you're spewing philosophical rhetoric in order to side step the questions posed to you.

Okay, here's the premise, should a military conflict break out over the issue of Taiwan, which by the way, I am not hoping for; do you think nations involved, ie., US, etc., haven't taken into account the collateral damage such as the economy tumbling into a spiral? Yes, having a massive FOREX reserve will give China plenty of leverage BUT depending what circumstances a military conflict arises over Taiwan, don't be so sure that will have any sway.

prhph.....Why i have this feelin' that I have writen this one or two thousand times before....

1. Sigh, there will be no D-Day reloaded and the campaign for reestablishing chinese sovereignty over Taiwan will be a comprehensive, swift and multilayered truly 21st century style military action. Of course there are still existing weaknesses (mainly in PLAN) and a number of additional DDG, FFG, LPD and a variety of amphibious vessels will have to come on line for fixing these deficiencies but as Vlad has pointed out correctly: this job will be done around 2010.
(and as for your criticism of chinese ´seamanship´: apart from the indisputable improvements in training and proficiency of chinese soldiers in the last decade; their objective would be taking an island 200 km off their coast and not the Hawaii archipelago! )

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yeas, bla, bla, bla heard this so many times before that i could almoust laugh....Ok where to start....

2010 is three years ahead of this moment. At this moment china hasent even commission NONE of the key naval units that it would need to conduct Vlad's miracle assault. In three years the first LPD migth allready be in service if we expect&assume that it hasent counted any proplems....but if you look at PLAN deploying history, none new warship type hasent entered to its service smoothly....even the current 051C and 052C AAW DDGs have been reported to encounter some proplems and their introduction to the fleet hasent been as smoothly as one could expect....thougth this isent exactly a shame to PLAN, every navy encounters these proplems when first entering into uncharted waters....

But then again there seems to envolping this fraction to chinese fan boys that think once new weapon is ready to be deployed, the forces using it are 110% operationally ready and the following "if it could be this way, it could be that way too..." logic hits the ground.

PLAN still and currently trains its troops to conduct WWII era beaching operation. Along with its ridiciliously unflexible and stiff organisation, You need to have "a touch of god" involved if you want PLAN suddenly leap 60 years in doctrine and tactics just in three years and be 110% ready to conduct amphibious assault operation of 21st century, a game that all experts agrees to be one of the difficoult operation that can be.

2030 everything migth be different, but not in three years they arent....

Its not about distances, (200km can is a bitchy one....to kids and fanboys its short, but count yourself how much time it takes to 10 knotter to travel it and back again....)

2. Focussing only on some perhaps even minor military details (e.g. how many AMRAAM's does ROCAF have, how much training have their pilots on Mirage 2000) is falling in the trap of missing the broader strategic perspective. China has powerful non military but nevertheless very effective coercive instruments at hand to manipulate developments on Taiwan in a direction that will certainly prove satisfactory for China's interests. An escalation to war is not desirable for the leadership in Beijing and they will go the ´extra mile´to prevent that from happening but if the ´unthinkable´happens China will employ every strategic and tactical instrument well beyond ´raw force´. Speculation about how a ´soft war campaign´against Taiwan would actually develop are rife on some chinese forums and I have to admit that most scenarios described there are pure fantasy (an especially wonky guy posted that Beijing should take some 200 bn$ out of their BoC reserve stash of more than 1.2 trn $ and pay out every ROCA officer/separatist politician with a million in cash and some classy real estate for him and his familiy in Canada, US or Europe! ) but at least Chinas incessantly growing tremendous trade and financial power has to be figured in as a potentially decisive factor in a ´Taiwan conflict´ scenario

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And when the fanboy brigade finaly understands that its logic to wage thechnological possipility of Taiwanese annexation is flawed, they throw this into play...And as I have personally been the strong advocate of zero tolerance to political discussion in this forum, It would be contradicting to me to enter to this discussion....likewise to anyone else, after all, this is a thread about PLAN amphibiuous capacities.

It's nice to know that when someone doesn't agree with you you resort to insults and assumptions.

I could just as easily call you a fanboy as you seem to assume the Taiwanese forces are like some unstoppable gods of war that not even the most powerful nation in the world, the U.S., could beat them, which is by all means a perfect example of insanity. Aircraft carrier battlegroups, the Marines, B-2 bombers, they'd be toast before they could even say "we're toast".

You ignore some of the most key issues and prefer to focus on something entirely different, and honestly, irrelevant.

The reason I give 2010 is not merely because of the naval aspect, though surely by then the PLAN will have bought Zubrs, but because of the air aspect. Also, I considered the ballistic missile matter. China is making them more accurate to where they'll be capable of being highly effective weapons against strategic and tactical targets. Denying Taiwan the use of its own air power makes removing the naval and ground power all the easier.

After that it doesn't really matter how "Dated" the PLAN's doctrine is or how many troops it can land in a certain amount of time, because Taiwan will not be able to stop them anyway. How would this army-sized group in Taiwan survive if it was under constant air and naval barrage? They wouldn't. They'd be torn to piece before they could even do anything about a landing force.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be all about denial. China would try to deny Taiwan use of its own airspace. Deny Taiwan of crucial supplies from outside. Deny Taiwan the use of its own information systems. Deny Taiwan early warning capability. Deny Taiwan successful counter-landing operation. Deny Taiwan help from the U.S. Deny Taiwan the use of its own territorial waters. Much of this is already well within their capacity.

The point being to force a surrender. You can say they'll fight on and not think of surrendering, but did anyone think the French would surrender to the Nazis? If faced with overwhelming force who's to say the public would remain calm? Who could remain calm?

The point of an an assault on Taiwan would not be occupation, but capitulation. Do they have the capability to do this right now? Yes.

Do you mean by air superiority, PRC and let ROC forces either destroyed or hiding, so that PRC forces can safely transport to Taiwan without any actual amphibious assult needed then march in Taiwan wherever they want?

I'm saying that keeping the ROCAF out of the air and thus giving the PRC air dominance, would allow China to destroy the ROCN and severely weaken the ROCA before an invasion. An amphibious assault could still be carried out, but, it would be done under far more favorable conditions than what Gollevainen likes to portray.

Dominance over the skies and seas would make any attempt at repelling such an assault meaningless and all counter-landings would come under constant air and naval barrage. It wouldn't be perfect dominance, but it would be well enough to insure China's victory in such a conflict.

Apparently few here understand that war is not done by the books, no matter what war is being discussed.

I think the debate is mainly over "severely weaken the ROCA" part. I agree that with a full air superiority, which PRC is likely to have, it can severely weaken the ROCA's MANOEUVRABILITY, but can't destruct a significant portion of it. Given the density of the force on the island, the small and predictable landing zones and the long distance from mainland to taiwan, the amphibious assault can still be very tough.