Please guys calm down and try to analyze any critical points in a rational way.
I can assure you that most taiwanese (including military people) are far more relaxed about the ´situation´than some guys in Finland! Actually many on the island are currently occupied by relocating their business to Shanghai or Guangzhou and investing in some real estate over there
´guarded´by a hot mainland chick being of course
´top secret´for mommy and kids at home.
Interestingly the (daily ?) amphibious lift capacity of PLA is a relatively unknown factor (3 div ?, 10 div ? , one member thinks PLA will not have enough capacity even in 5 years) but nevertheless several
´experts´have already made assumptions that PLA can or cannot achieve nothing.
We need more facts and in absence of better information continued speculation leads only to confusion.
The quite slow pace in building a capable amphibious force has indeed surprised many PLA watchers for years now. My humble personal opinion is that this a deliberate strategic decision since conventional landing forces will play only a limited role in PLA's new naval strategy and additionally a rapid expansion of amphibious ships years in advance would only serve to ring every alarm bell from Taipeh to Washington.
Today China is already the number three civilian ship building nation (for data just look in our civilian ship thread!) producing 12 million dwt in '06 alone.
Probably in 2010 China will have replaced Japan and ROK as the global number one ship builder with an annual production of 18-22 million dwt and this is a yearly production double the record figure reached by US yards in 1943! Consequently China will be able to produce the necessary small and medium amphibious ships (LPD's would be different of course ...) during a comprehensive campaign employing all capabilties of her giant industries within 3 to 6 months. Although achieving this kind of feat would be difficult it is certainly possible. China's industrial progress has been very rapid and dynamic in recent years and this has to be included in every calculus regarding an amphibious campaign against Taiwan (2009-2012). :coffee: