PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

longmarch said:

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Now THAT is a sure enough STOBAR 001A carrier hull!

BTW...home in Emmett, ID at last!

Bltizo said:

I believe my argument (which is that using the time scale of Liaoning's refurbishment and refit to project the timescale of other future carrier projects is not logical), is still valid regardless for whether we are talking about 001A or 002.

If you want my exact estimate of how many years it may take for 001A and 002 to go from starting assembly to being launched to going to sea trials to entering service, that is something which is harder to put a specific number to, and I've also deliberately never committed myself to a date.
But I do definitely believe both 001A and 002 will be in the water/at sea by 2025 (which in my book means anything from going on sea trials to newly being commissioned to being fully operational).

I'm not sure what you mean by this -- are you suggesting that two carriers needed to be both under construction in 2015 to fulfill your definition of carrier fleet expansion as a "high priority" for the Navy, and that say, if one began construction in 2015 and another began construction in 2016 or 2017 then it would not be "high priority"?

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Sure, there has to be some definition from within the reasonable spectrum of possibilities to quantify high or low priority for a bet.

Also it is in the spirit of a decisive fun guesstimate wager that would resolve quickly rather than a drawn out overly serious (pretentious perhaps?) punditry contest which has a resolution date that may be beyond the active memberships of some of the participants or even the existence of the forum itself.

Bltizo said:

The difference is that a year ago there were no credible rumours to suggest two carriers were under construction in 2015.
Even now, the rumours are only saying that 002 has begun initial stages of construction, it'll probably be a year or more until we start seeing 002 come together like we saw 001A last year.

I don't base my own position on these matters by plucking ideas out of a hat, on the contrary there are credible rumours that we try to critically assess and make projections out of, and last year there was no indications of any kind to suggest that 002 was beginning construction in any meaningful form.

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Defining "credible rumours" is as subjective as the quantification of "high priority" above. Just because no "credible rumors" are percolating is not a sufficient reason to rule out something from happening.

For a bet to be exciting there has to be sufficient unknown on all betting sides. If there is relatively much less unknown on one or more sides then it is either an unfair or unworthy wager.

longmarch said:

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To add to the post:

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There is only the foremost ramp section, and a port-side platform for the HQ-10 launcher left to install, then the deck will be fully complete. The two openings in the middle are purposefully left open for ease of access for interior construction, and so should not be considered an incomplete section.

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P.S. On a side note, I also found the caption quite amusing. Translated, it means: "This photo was published in association with CD, any cropping or editing will rot your JJ (slang for penis)."

What's on the top right corner should well indicate where I pull this from:

Original location:


Now it's clear they're not tearing the complex down else they'd have remove the dummy planes already; the key points in the photos are:
1. removal of the ski-jump ramp
2. the frontal radar mount probably undergoing a facelift instead of permenant removal (?)

Now, giving the catapult phototypes at the training facility is now almost complete (last available satelitte shots shows advanced stage of completion), and this building serves as a R&D / mockup for the carrier deck and island layout, could we say the PLAN is indeed moving towards the full-flattop?

MwRYum said:

What's on the top right corner should well indicate where I pull this from:
View attachment 29399
Original location:

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Now it's clear they're not tearing the complex down else they'd have remove the dummy planes already; the key points in the photos are:
1. removal of the ski-jump ramp
2. the frontal radar mount probably undergoing a facelift instead of permenant removal (?)

Now, giving the catapult phototypes at the training facility is now almost complete (last available satelitte shots shows advanced stage of completion), and this building serves as a R&D / mockup for the carrier deck and island layout, could we say the PLAN is indeed moving towards the full-flattop?

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Yes, it is likely that the Wuhan carrier mock up will provide some indicators to what 002 will look like, but we should keep in mind that it may not be picture perfect, as even the initial configuration was not wholly perfect with CV-16.

They may also be limited by the existing structures of the mock up such that they may not modify certain things on the mock up for 002 depending on the ease of modification (e.g.: I expect the island's topside geometry to change to possibly reflect with 002's island will look like, but the overall footprint on the flight deck may not be reduced, because changing that on the mock up will require the entire structure to essentially be torn down -- probably not worth it).

But overall, this is indeed another significant indicator to suggest 002 will likely have catapults, on top of the many others that we've had over the years, including persistent credible rumours from big shrimps, to initial suspected catapult facilities spotted on satellite images, to the NATF at Huangdicun with catapults spotted over the last year, to even some official media acknowledgements of catapults potentially being on their next carriers...

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edit: we can see an "additional" wider deckhouse/bridge seems to be under construction on top of the existing deckhouse/bridge on the island. This new deckhouse/bridge will likely be partially representative of the geometry of the 002's island... what will be interesting if the original CV-16 deckhouse underneath it will be left there, or removed. If it's left there, it'll look a bit weird on the mock up but it probably won't interfere with the actual function of the mock up; if it's removed, well then the mock up would look a bit more representative of the real thing but it'll also mean some extra time, money and complexity for modifying the island mock up.

MwRYum said:

Now it's clear they're not tearing the complex down else they'd have remove the dummy planes already; the key points in the photos are:
1. removal of the ski-jump ramp
2. the frontal radar mount probably undergoing a facelift instead of permenant removal (?)

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and 3. the island has now a second bridge for better view of the air boss over a larger air group.

That is for shure the way to a attack carrier.

Intrepid said:

and 3. the island has now a second bridge for better view of the air boss over a larger air group.

That is for shure the way to a attack carrier.

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As I wrote above, it's hard to tell if that is an additional "second bridge/deckhouse"... or if it is meant to be the replacement bridge/deckhouse design for the 002's island design.

I personally think this new deckhouse design is meant to be a replacement geometry, because the greater width of the individual windows on the new deckhouse are different to the existing CV-16 deckhouse below it, and the overall width of the new deckhouse is also much greater than the CV-16 deckhouse, and if we were to go by other carrier island designs (especially US), you'd think that they would use a more common window geometry for all windows of the entire island, and that the overall geometrical transition between deckhouse levels would be smoother.

That said, we probably won't know until we see 002's real island when it's under construction, because as I wrote in my last post, it's likely they may not bother removing the CV-16 style deckhouse on the Wuhan mock up because the hassle and structural change would not be worth the very limited benefits it brings (mostly aesthetic than practical).


At this point it's probably best to not assume that every single facet of physical appearance of the carrier mock up will be representative of the real thing, and it's likely that quite a bit of it may not jive exactly, and that only certain elements will be representative.

It is a facility to test the interference of radar signals with the outer shape of a ship. And now they can check the influence of a large primary flight control. That is what I would like to say: the next carrier after 001A will have a large primary flight control and lack of ski jump.

Intrepid said:

It is a facility to test the interference of radar signals with the outer shape of a ship. And now they can check the influence of a large primary flight control. That is what I would like to say.

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Possibly; or it may simply be the design of the new deckhouse/bridge to replace the old CV-16 style deckhouse, and the lower CV-16 style deckhouse on the mock up is going to remain there because there is no good reason to go to the work to remove it.

I personally doubt the 002 island will maintain the CV-16 style deckhouse with a larger level so inelegantly plopped on top of it, pri-fly or not. The way the new deckhouse's edges are overhanging on both sides of the existing deckhouse do not look right either.

This isn't to say the real 002 will not have a dedicated pri-fly deck level, but I think we can't say the current set up is meant to be a representative island design.