PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

latenlazy said:

I have a theory that if steam catapult technology is already ready they may go with it first because it's a more immediate fit with steam engines, and thus present a lower risk approach than figuring out the electrical systems for an EMALS on a carrier, with plans for a refit in the future.

It may also be that they plan on going with EMALS if their experience building the first carrier or two goes smoothly, but with the option of using a steam catapult as a backup option if things are rough.

Finally, I've though that it's possible that decision making within the PLAN is divided, and POP3 either reports for one side, or reports based on available knowledge that could shift around a bit.

Click to expand...

Even if steam cat technology is already ready PLAN never used it at sea and would spend a few years getting rid of troubles that are bound to occur. All large flattops are steam powered except the not yet operational British ones. That didn't prevent USN from going to EMALS in its Ford class. What would be the cost of abandoning that system and going back to steam cats? Three years rebuilding and $2b?
The proper back up for delay in EM cats is using the ski ramp. And the best EM cat is built into the ski ramp because such system needs less space as it needs to provide much less speed to get the aircraft safely away.

Via CDF posted by "totoro":

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

this link claims chief of j15 development programme, Cong Sun (spelling?) said next carrier borne fighter could come by 2020.

Henri K. also claimed (no source sadly) that Liaoning will be in south china sea from mid march with at least 6 (if not more) j15.

Click to expand...

Deino said:

Via CDF posted by "totoro":

Click to expand...

If that next aircraft isn't another Flanker ( seems unlikely, would it be sufficiently different from J-15 to call it the "next carrier borne fighter"? ) it is likely a development of "J-31".

I had a similar idea ... esp. since that statement is from SAC !

I would concur. chinese text from the link, when translated via google, says:

Voice of the Straits Network March 11 Beijing News (Reporter Guozhen Peng two of the country, special correspondent Hu Xin) CPPCC National Committee, the chief architect of the J-15 carrier aircraft SUN Cong during an interview with reporters during the two sessions revealed that the J-15 is now in pilot training phase, the next major task is to combat effectiveness. China's next generation carrier-based aircraft in 2020 or published.

Of all possiblities, PLAN variant of 31001/fc31 programme seems most likely by that timeframe.

Guys...we have beat the catapult arguement to death.

There is no doubt that the Chinese are developing their catapult capability.

They have a land based facility for testing.

There is no doubt that they are making progress on it.

They have made statements about the program and it being in an advanced state of development.

But that is really all we know.

As to weather it is...as some here have postulated..."ready to be installed on a carrier and tested at sea," we simply do not know for sure...but there are a number of very strong indicators that this is not the case at all.

I have given my best advise and thoughts on that.

1st, they do not have a carrier to do it on. And we have not seen one under construction...though rumors abound.

Also, they will only install it on a carrier, IMHO, when they have done enough testing on land to assure that their design is ready for operation at sea, and to be sure that their pilots and aircraft can be safely and reliably launched.

I personally do not think that they are anywhere near "close" to that. We simply have seen no evidence to date of the amount of dead load and then aircraft launches from their land based system to reliably make any such a conjecture.

I personally believe that they are still several years away (probably 5-6) from actually having a catapult installed on an aircraft carrier that is meant for service within the PLAN, so that it can be tested with aircraft. They may well allow for it...and have certain components installed. But they will not finalize that and begin launching aircraft off of it until they have done the former..

But time will tell.

As it is, let's not get too deep in the weeds on the discussion at this point. it is all based on a statement (and one not very detailed in this regard) by an individual in the program.

In the mean time, there are other PLAN Carrier activities we do not want to drown out be scores of posts, back and forth on this issue.

For example...is the Liaoning sailing in the SCS now?

Are there any credible pictures of the 2nd carrier building?

Are there more pictures of production J-15s ready for the Liaoning? or even seen at the Land Based Training Facility?

Yes, the article totoro posted indeed says that the next generation of carrier borne fighter will be ready in the 2020 timeframe.

Everything is coming together nicely, isn't it? Our best estimates for when the EMALS would be ready for carrier-based flight testing would be another 5-6 years, or around 2020. Our estimates for when a catapult-equipped carrier would be launched is another 3-5 years, which means flight testing won't begin until another 5-7 years from now, or around 2020 once again. Now we're hearing that the next generation of carrier-borne fighters will be ready around 2020 too. If we can get a status update on IEPS and it points toward readiness around 2020 as well, then we have a pretty darn good timeline for the first catapult-equipped Chinese carrier, do we not?

I mentioned last night in reponse to latenlazy's post that following the PLA is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle, it seems like the puzzle pieces are falling in place one by one!

I would also say that EMALS flight testing might occur before the next generation naval fighter emerges, as I also expect a catapult capable J-15 to be developed as well.

I've previously speculated that IEPS powered surface combatants like the next generation frigate and the second variant of 055 might emerge around 2020 as well but that is only my own opinion and obviously not indicative about when IEPS might be ready for PLAN...

And of course something that might throw off our predictions is whether the first Chinese CATOBAR carrier will use steam cats or EMALS .

Bltizo said:

I would also say that EMALS flight testing might occur before the next generation naval fighter emerges, as I also expect a catapult capable J-15 to be developed as well.

I've previously speculated that IEPS powered surface combatants like the next generation frigate and the second variant of 055 might emerge around 2020 as well but that is only my own opinion and obviously not indicative about when IEPS might be ready for PLAN...

And of course something that might throw off our predictions is whether the first Chinese CATOBAR carrier will use steam cats or EMALS .

Click to expand...

I think signs are pointing toward steam cats if the timeline I worked out is true. I think 001A will be launched soon (as in within 12-24 months), if latest rumors of modules being under construction already, and EMALS probably won't be ready before then. Like you, I expect catapult capable J-15 to be under development, which is conceivably an easier project than developing a whole new carrier-borne fighter, and would be the fighter of choice for the steam catapult equipped 001A.

Anyhow, this is just my speculation based on how pieces seem to be falling together.

I think 001A is definitely going to be STOBAR, it probably won't feature cats IMO, as the latest noises seem to indicate it won't deviate too much from liaoning's configuration. I expect widespread internal changes like hangar, facility arrangement, and possibly elevators as well, and also deviations to flight deck size and/or shape, but no change in launch and recovery type.

The question is whether 002 (so expected to be launched probably very late this decade) will use steam or EM cats.

---

I wonder if it would be feasible to arrange a half dozen QC-280s in IEPS to power a 70k ton CATOBAR carrier