PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

Mohsin77 said:

Someone already asked this question to Blitzo many pages ago. You can check his answer for details, but if I remember correctly, 24/7 coverage of all potential attack vectors is unrealistic. The surface area in this theater is massive.

Plus there are a whole host of other important variables involved... ECM, Decoys etc. Not only do you have to detect all the salvos, you have to have enough interceptors positioned within a crunched time limit. And even then, there's a possibility of saturation.

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Michaelsinodef said:

But the thing is, it's very unlikely for it to be an actual surprise attack.

We're most likely gonna see tensions beforehand, so units will be on station.

Moreoever there's always spying and so on, and to ACTUALLY do such a big planned first strike, is 99.9% not gonna be something that can easily slip undetected through (the preparations and activity before it alone will alert the PLA, and units will be in heightened tension/alert).

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tphuang said:

I suspect long range drones will play a large role in the future, but suicide/penetration drones will not only need endurance and payload, but also some level of speed. There is a big difference in probably of intercept between high subsonic missile vs a drone that's going 100 to 200 km/h. Any competent short range air defense or anti-drone system will chew up the latter.

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Blitzo said:

Yes.

It still won't be in the favour of the defender.


A robust defense can help to mitigate the effects of a comprehensive strike, but to truly be able to come out ahead in the conflict requires the full spectrum of strike and ISR and mobile maneuver forces that can deploy at range.

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vincent said:

I’m not so sure about China being the loser if the American launch first.

The number of American ballistic missile bases in the West Pac is very limited and I expect China’s space sensors watch them like hawks. Any launch preparations will be monitored. I expect PLA forces to launch all their missiles that are on active standby during period of high tensions the moment a massive attack is detected.

American needs to launch all their missiles in the initial attack before the retaliatory strike take them out while China can take her time to systematically take out all American assets in the West Pac.

In one of the 观棋有语 episodes, the guest speaker said China managed to automate the DF-17’s production which greatly reduce its cost. The cost of DF-17 is only 1/10 of DF-26 and the cost of DF-26 is 1/10 of DF-41. We can expect PLARF to have a huge arsenal of DF-17 and DF-26

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AndrewS said:

The last part is key. If there are any competent short-range air defence or anti-drone systems remaining.

Remember that these air defences will have to reveal themselves when they engage.
And presumably the PLAAF will have something like air superiority over the skies of Taiwan and have SEAD assets in play.

If you have drones acting as $10K guided missiles, you don't mind if many get shot down because there are lots more available. If a single J-16 costs $80 Million, you could buy 8000 Mugin 5 drones for example which would be enough to overwhelm any air defence.

I've previously pointed out that the cost of commercial drones is really low and how it would be straightforward to repurpose them for military use.

This type of Mugen drone also has enough range to reach South Korea
And if you made a somewhat bigger drone, it could have a 1000km range which means Japan is now in reach.

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vincent said:

The article didn‘t say what kind of weapons are allow to be stockpiled in the Philippines.
Taiwan‘s weapons are crap
How many missiles can be fired from Ryukyu islands before the counterattack from China?

If Philippines and Japan allow the Americans to launch attack from their soil, they become participants of the war against China. They are open for retaliations, including nuclear ones. Are they willing to die for Americans?

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Blitzo said:

That means buying sufficient long range strike weapons, aircraft, naval maneuver forces (CSGs), weapons launch platforms, and ISR kill chain and air and missile defenses, and to operate and disperse them in a manner such that if the US military does launch a surprise first strike and if it is relatively successful, to still have sufficient capabilities left over (redundancy) to be able to prosecute the mission afterwards.

Which is an indirect way of me saying that at present, the PLA are not prepared for such a prospect that could emerge within 5-15 years.

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vincent said:

Probably because the US hasn't invested in West Pac enough to launch a devastating first strike yet. Why procure tons of munitions that may become obsolete in a few years against a threat that may not become reality.

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Blitzo said:

Yes, as I said it is a prospect that will emerge only after 5-15 years, and it is understandable that they're not currently prepared for it.

But right now what they should be doing is making development programs for various relevant weapons systems and setting aside the money needed to procure them at scale and put the foundation and initial doctrine into play. All of that is not obviously visible, and I suspect they are currently working on it furiously.


My input is that our views as observers should not be one of "it will all be okay". It will be very challenging and have significant demands for the PLA.
It is far better and more constructive for us to nitpick and focus on the PLA's deficiencies and the opportunities in which they can trip and fail, and thus to consider how they can improve and what sort of systems they will need and what scale they will need them at.

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