PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

plawolf

plawolf

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tphuang said:
so I was just thinking today about China's strategy for second island chain in a westpac conflict. It seems to me that no matter what people say about other bases, they are just not remotely on the same level of relevance as Guam.

I did a direct measurement now and it's almost 3000 km from Anderson AFB to Wenzhou.

In an initial set of strikes against Guam, PLA would likely be launching DF-26s from ground, CJ-10s from H-6K and LACMs from destroyers (stationed on East side of Taiwan)

Given the likely presence of a carrier on the East side of Taiwan, I was thinking about how far out it would have to be for J-15s to launch KF-98A. If we use max operational range KF-98A (let's say 500km) and use 1100 km as the operational radius of J-15s. Let's say 24 J-15s per carrier all take off, half carrying 2 KF-98A and other half doing OCA, DCA and refueling. The entire wing would only be able to launch 24 ground attack missiles. And in order to do this. it would have to be almost half way between Taiwan and Guam.

So it seems that unless they feel comfortable deploy a carrier group 1000 km to the East of Bashi channel, this would be a not so worthy gamble.

Of course now, once they get J-35/CV-18 into service along with more SSNs into service. This might be a more comfortable scenario.

Whether they need this to be an option is another question. If they can get carrier to 1000 km off Guam, then the strike options are just much more potent since you can then start launching gliding PGMs and shorter range ground attack missiles. You can also carry more payload.
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H20 entered the chat.

For more immediate needs, the Ukraine war and Israeli military misadventures has demonstrated that the old adage of quantity having a quality of its own still hold try today.

Why risk a carrier when China can spam 3000km ranged Shahed equivalent in crazy numbers more or less indefinitely without much opportunity cost? They can spice them up with terminal guidance and satcom and other upgrades for a much more useful and effective weapon without adding much cost.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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PiSigma said:
It was official chinese header for the article they were reporting.

The report was talking about the automation of said factory and its capabilities. This was at least 2-3 years ago.

I think people also need to remember that CCTV never report the newest and greatest military tech in China. So if they say a factory can produce 1000 cruise missiles a day 2 years ago, that means it probably achieved that years before then. And there are other factories that can produce even more than 1000/d.
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And may I know where is the article report with that official Chinese header? Mind share the link?
 
tphuang

tphuang

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plawolf said:
H20 entered the chat.

For more immediate needs, the Ukraine war and Israeli military misadventures has demonstrated that the old adage of quantity having a quality of its own still hold try today.

Why risk a carrier when China can spam 3000km ranged Shahed equivalent in crazy numbers more or less indefinitely without much opportunity cost? They can spice them up with terminal guidance and satcom and other upgrades for a much more useful and effective weapon without adding much cost.
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H20? At this point it seems to me that 6th gen will be in play here before h20. If it has 2000 km range and launch 1000 km long attack missiles, then it will threaten Guam and Australia.
 
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AndrewS

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ismellcopium said:
I also remember seeing that but didn't think much of it. I find 1000 final units produced per day a bit on the harder to believe end, even for China. Aren't the jet engines the limiting factor for cruise missiles? The number you can build depends on the rate of the slowest component to manufacture.

Remember Lockmart is struggling to build 500 per year lol.
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I expect that factory is focused on bottleneck components for cruise missiles.

Remember that in the event of a US-China war, there are going to be a lot of spare casting, CNC machines, etc etc available to produce the other engine parts.

Consider how the US is really struggling to ramp up naval shipbuilding.
Then consider how China shipyards find this straightforward.
 
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AndrewS

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plawolf said:
H20 entered the chat.

For more immediate needs, the Ukraine war and Israeli military misadventures has demonstrated that the old adage of quantity having a quality of its own still hold try today.

Why risk a carrier when China can spam 3000km ranged Shahed equivalent in crazy numbers more or less indefinitely without much opportunity cost? They can spice them up with terminal guidance and satcom and other upgrades for a much more useful and effective weapon without adding much cost.
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Yep. The Sunflower is listed with a 2000km range.
A somewhat larger version would get to 3000km and therefore reach Guam.

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The way I see it today is:

1. DF-26 strikes targeting the air defences, any aircraft on the ground and also other critical targets
2. Then followed up with high-subsonic cruise missiles - primarily launched by H-6s

But in the very near future, add the option of 3000km low-cost Shaheeds in large numbers.

Then even further into the future, add the H-20 and a 3000km range 6th Gen Fighter along with UCAVs for air superiority and ground attack
 
Blitzo

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AndrewS said:
Below is the CCTV7 mini-documentary with the 1000 cruise missile factory.
Remember this is for the domestic Chinese audience.

youtube.com/watch?v=RoObgUTsZ0M
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That's an edited, attempt of an English translation of the original CCTV footage. Not ideal, but there are at least the original Chinese subtitles present. In that video, I must say I can't find any section where it claims 1000 cruise missiles can be produced in a 24 hour period from that single factory.

This is the full original video which the poor attempt of an English translation is from.

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I've briefly skimmed over it but I also can't find where it directly states 1000 cruise missiles can be produced in a 24 hour period from a single factory.
I'm not in a position today to watch the whole video and see where if any part they say it, but I welcome others if they have the time to take a crack at it. If others cannot find it as well (or if the actual statement is different to "1000 cruise missiles produced from a single factory a day") then I would say this claim is very much unverified and should be doubted.
 
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1947

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youtube.com/watch?v=RoObgUTsZ0M
Only on english subtitle. watch from 27 sec.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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AndrewS said:
Below is the CCTV7 mini-documentary with the 1000 cruise missile factory.
Remember this is for the domestic Chinese audience.

youtube.com/watch?v=RoObgUTsZ0M
Click to expand...
PiSigma said:
Screen capture of a cctv. Also been years, so you will need to search in the forum
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1947 said:
youtube.com/watch?v=RoObgUTsZ0M
Switch on english subtitle and watch from 27 sec.
Click to expand...

Sorry, but as what @Blitzo has posted - There is neither any mention nor indication in the video in its original form and format in Chinese (which was aired by CCTV-7 in October 2023) where said factory is capable of rolling out 1000 cruise missiles per day. So where (official Chinese sources) did that "1000 cruise missiles per day" quote/mention actually come from?

And there's also this - What are the characteristics and performance of said cruise missiles? Apparently there's yet any answer to this question.
 
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