PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Yommie said:

Of course, China has many options to prevent Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan. One option is signing official mutual defense treaty with Russia. Another option is supplying drones and missiles to Russia. Either option will prevent Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan. China has the cards to play. America does not have any card to play other than order Taiwan to secede from China.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk with a state visit by Wang Yi to Donbass. They should know that if NATO supports separatism in China, China can support separatism in and around NATO.

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It is unlikely that China will intervene in the war in Ukraine.It is beneficial for China not to express their attitude, although the Ukrainian attitude is "if you don't help me, you are helping Russia".
However, there have been rumors that China will provide J-10 fighters to DPRK according to the tension of the surrounding situation.DPRK don't mind China helping them improve new missiles.

The formal military alliance between China and Russia should be the last resort for EU countries to resolutely adopt a hostile attitude.


Pelosi can be a little bolder,the risk of her special plane being shot down basically does not exist.This gamble can win her a great reputation,there may be a grand "welcome ceremony" waiting for her, but she can return in time. Or summon up the courage to ignore any warnings and break through the blockade of bravado.

If nothing happens by then, then someone runs the risk of being a second Khrushchev.

zhangjim said:

It is unlikely that China will intervene in the war in Ukraine.It is beneficial for China not to express their attitude, although the Ukrainian attitude is "if you don't help me, you are helping Russia".
However, there have been rumors that China will provide J-10 fighters to DPRK according to the tension of the surrounding situation.DPRK don't mind China helping them improve new missiles.

The formal military alliance between China and Russia should be the last resort for EU countries to resolutely adopt a hostile attitude.


Pelosi can be a little bolder,the risk of her special plane being shot down basically does not exist.This gamble can win her a great reputation,there may be a grand "welcome ceremony" waiting for her, but she can return in time. Or summon up the courage to ignore any warnings and break through the blockade of bravado.

If nothing happens by then, then someone runs the risk of being a second Khrushchev.

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I'm not sure how you could conclude that (bolded part) given not only are the respective situations vastly different in terms of who publicly initiated the respective crises in terms of public leadership, but also in terms of the existing medium and long term trajectories of both nations in their eras of geopolitical competition.

Chill out with the hot takes.

ashnole said:

Well China can start with executing captured agents (which big geopolitical players usually keep safe for future prisoner exchange opportunities) of America's three-lettered foreign intelligence agency the evening before Pelosi even steps foot on that plane of hers.

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That would surely backfire.

What makes you think that the US wouldn't do the same against captured Chinese agents on American soil? Especially with Trump-like politicians growing more numerous in the US government.

We are not at war. Not a kinetic one, anyways. Any captured foreign agents are always more useful alive than dead.

RE: if Pelosi visits Taiwan

Why not...

1. Close L.A. and San Francisco consulates
2. Y1M exit visas for undergrad students in California starting 1 school year from now
3. Freeze US treasury purchases
4. All future oil and LNG purchases to be paid in yuan or currency of exporting country
5. Tariff on imports from California

FairAndUnbiased said:

what about forcing the plane out of the way in another way?

1. dropping flares in their path
2. jamming their comm and navigation systems while Taiwan is still far beyond visual range with AWACs
3. flying very close with interceptors to constrain their movements

and if they still don't move, there is still a parallel escalation card to play in addition to things around Taiwan:

recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk with a state visit by Wang Yi to Donbass. They should know that if NATO supports separatism in China, China can support separatism in and around NATO.

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I like this here. The PLAAF could do what it did to that Arsetrayan plane, give it the ol' chaff sammich!

zhangjim said:

It is unlikely that China will intervene in the war in Ukraine.It is beneficial for China not to express their attitude, although the Ukrainian attitude is "if you don't help me, you are helping Russia".
However, there have been rumors that China will provide J-10 fighters to DPRK according to the tension of the surrounding situation.DPRK don't mind China helping them improve new missiles.

The formal military alliance between China and Russia should be the last resort for EU countries to resolutely adopt a hostile attitude.


Pelosi can be a little bolder,the risk of her special plane being shot down basically does not exist.This gamble can win her a great reputation,there may be a grand "welcome ceremony" waiting for her, but she can return in time. Or summon up the courage to ignore any warnings and break through the blockade of bravado.

If nothing happens by then, then someone runs the risk of being a second Khrushchev.

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What makes you so certain?

Pelosi cannot enter China without permission, and she most certainly cannot enter together with US soldiers in order to aid anti government forces. That is the same as declaring war.

If China doesn't declare a no flight zone and enforce it, it would destroy the popularity of whichever politicians suggested it. If even a literal clown like Zelensky stood up and defended his national borders, do you think any accountable Chinese politician would allow a key US leader to rally separatists on Chinese territory?

Despite how much US is critizing Russia over its recent actions, the ghouls in Washington show that in their hearts, they envy the Putin regime. They want their own massive war to distract the population at home.

Americans need to realize how futile it is to involve into a territorial dispute with China. No ethnic Americans live in Taiwan province. No-one is being shelled or having their rights to education taken away. If the US government doesn't reverse course, its going to throw away millions of American lives for nothing.

ZeEa5KPul said:

I like this here. The PLAAF could do what it did to that Arsetrayan plane, give it the ol' chaff sammich!

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Apparantly according to a recent either Guanqi or Chahuahui, not sure which (or maybe it was a livestream on Guancha), I think they mentioned they actually did that to a US spy plane, and it got damaged more seriously than the australian one.

We do not know what China told the US privately. We can only infer based on what people said publicly. We have Chines government spokesperson said China will react forcefully, and former Global Times editor advocated establishing a no-fly zone. We also have this from Pelosi herself:

"I think what the President was saying is -- maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese," Pelosi responded.

"I don't know exactly," she added. "I've heard it anecdotally, but I haven't heard it from the president."

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The American military is strongly advising Pelosi not to go

Chinese leaders would see Pelosi’s trip as a purposeful provocation by the United States, administration officials fear. Defense, military and intelligence officials have “tried to explain the risks associated with the timing of her proposed trip,” said one administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. “But everyone understands that this is her decision.” Among those briefing Pelosi were Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said.

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vincent said:

We do not know what China told the US privately. We can only infer based on what people said publicly. We have Chines government spokesperson said China will react forcefully, and former Global Times editor advocated establishing a no-fly zone. We also have this from Pelosi herself:

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The American military is strongly advising Pelosi not to go

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China won't shoot down her plane. Her saying this, it is just a smokescreen to make the Chinese look unreasonable

There are far better ways to accomplish this than this idiotic way of killing a pawn

China wasn't strong enough in 1997, whatever the rationale , unlike today.

Surprised nobody has mentioned something similar that happened in January 2021, right before Trump was to leave office.

Here is a summary of what allegedly occurred:

"After the announcement of Kelly Knight Craft’s visit to Taiwan, the Chinese mainland protested strongly to the U.S. through diplomatic channels from Jan. 7 to 10, but to no avail, and “after consideration, Beijing’s top brass decided to respond strongly with military...On the 11th, the Chinese military told the U.S. Department of Defense through the U.S.-China hotline that Craft’s visit to Taiwan undermines China’s sovereignty and cannot be tolerated, and that when the U.S. plane approaches Taiwan, Chinese warplanes will also follow it into Taiwan airspace to declare China’s sovereignty over Taiwan, and that if blocked by Taiwan’s military planes, “we will not rule out the consequences of direct fire...The U.S. did not expect China to react so strongly and refused to communicate and compromise on this issue. The Pentagon has assessed that to ensure the arrival of Craft’s plane in Taiwan would require an escort of U.S. warplanes in Okinawa, but that would cause a risk of a military confrontation between the U.S. and China. If let the Taiwan warplanes escort, the situation would be even worse, there would be the risk of a firefight over the Taiwan Strait...Either a U.S.-China military standoff or a firefight between Taiwan and mainland China would be unacceptable to the United States. As a result, the Pentagon submitted its assessment to the State Department and strongly recommended that Kelly Knight Craft’s visit to Taiwan be canceled. Although then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was seriously dissatisfied, he was forced to cancel Craft’s visit to Taiwan. To avoid the perception that he was pressured by China to cancel the visit to Taiwan, Pompeo decided to cancel all State Department foreign visits, including Pompeo’s own plans to visit Europe, on the grounds of the transition of power."

The DIFFERENCE this time around is that a lot of these posturing and hypothetical threats / counter threats are being made PUBLICLY PRIOR to the trip, thus increasing the political costs for both sides in backing down. Not surprisingly, leaks in the media including the British Financial Times have further increased tensions.

Pelosi will need to come up with another excuse like with COVID. God help us.