PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

PowerLocation

Just Hatched
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J-20 stealth flew within the visual range of Taiwan's coastline.
So Taiwan air force failed to detect the J-20.It would've been a propaganda coup if Taiwan got a photo of the J-20 with their F-16 sniper targeting pod.

This happened around Checheng township in Pingtung, at the very southern tip of Taiwan.

View attachment 167270
can anyone estimate how far this is? i looked at 3d satelite imagery and got like 20km
 

Blitzo

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Aren't the 300 mm and 370 mm rockets advertised to have 130 km and 220 km ranges, respectively?

This is from a few years ago (2022) for export.

From left to right is, CEP; guidance, payload, range, weapon diameter.

The 300mm has an export range on that occasion of 130km, the 370mm has an export range of 290km.

One can surmise what the actual domestic range at that time was, and entertain what the domestic range of current munitions might be three years on.

20221123_131912.png
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
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This is from a few years ago (2022) for export.

From left to right is, CEP; guidance, payload, range, weapon diameter.

The 300mm has an export range on that occasion of 130km, the 370mm has an export range of 290km.

One can surmise what the actual domestic range at that time was, and entertain what the domestic range of current munitions might be three years on.

View attachment 167272
I was more surprised by the accuracy than the range; it was truly impressive this time.

While the ROCA’s response units were still dawdling and preparing to leave their camps, just a few 370mm rockets can causing massive casualties
 

Blitzo

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I was more surprised by the accuracy than the range; it was truly impressive this time.

The accuracy is fairly consistent with what we've seen from previous long range MLRS exercises they've done, and consistent with the expected accuracy they have based on modern satellite and INS guidance they have domestically.

But yes, showing it so starkly for this kind of exercise is sending a message.

A combination of accuracy, range, payload and magazine capacity per TEL, really does make the PHL-191 a very optimized platform for the Taiwan contingency especially in context of the rest of the system of systems capabilities the PLA have.
 

tamsen_ikard

Captain
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The accuracy is fairly consistent with what we've seen from previous long range MLRS exercises they've done, and consistent with the expected accuracy they have based on modern satellite and INS guidance they have domestically.

But yes, showing it so starkly for this kind of exercise is sending a message.

A combination of accuracy, range, payload and magazine capacity per TEL, really does make the PHL-191 a very optimized platform for the Taiwan contingency especially in context of the rest of the system of systems capabilities the PLA have.
It will be very useful against India, Korea and Vietnam as well. Pretty much every Chinese neighbours have large population centers within the range of PHL-191.
 

Blitzo

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It will be very useful against India, Korea and Vietnam as well. Pretty much every Chinese neighbours have large population centers within the range of PHL-191.

Of course, any sort of long range heavy MLRS, with high precision and good payload, that is road mobile with inter-theater redeployability would be very useful for general warfare purposes as well.

But for a Taiwan contingency, the range of the 370mm and 750mm versions and their magazine capacity per TEL is particularly well suited for that mission given the geography and location of likely launch positions, ROC military positions and targets etc.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
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I was more surprised by the accuracy than the range; it was truly impressive this time.

While the ROCA’s response units were still dawdling and preparing to leave their camps, just a few 370mm rockets can causing massive casualties

They are accurate enough to be used for antiship purposes (provided that the ship is not going very fast, but still).
 

Blitzo

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They are accurate enough to be used for antiship purposes (provided that the ship is not going very fast, but still).

I wouldn't try even suggesting that, because a baseline requirement for genuine anti shipping capability is terminal guidance to be able to hit a moving target.

Unless these rockets have a terminal radar or EO seeker (or has semi active laser guidance), the only ship targets they should be considered credible for are ships docked at port.
It's not like the PLA doesn't have a plethora of other light, medium and heavyweight anti shipping options from every launch platform/domain anyhow.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
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I wouldn't try even suggesting that, because a baseline requirement for genuine anti shipping capability is terminal guidance to be able to hit a moving target.

Unless these rockets have a terminal radar or EO seeker (or has semi active laser guidance), the only ship targets they should be considered credible for are ships docked at port.
It's not like the PLA doesn't have a plethora of other light, medium and heavyweight anti shipping options from every launch platform/domain anyhow.

What I meant to say is that they’ve been used against targets simulating enemy ships in a CCTV 7 documentary before. Whether they actually employ it in this manner or whether it is effective or efficient given the huge variety of other tools in PLA arsenal is questionable.


ASMRL stands for anti-ship multiple rocket launcher.

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Blitzo

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What I meant to say is that they’ve been used against targets simulating enemy ships in a CCTV 7 documentary before. Whether they actually employ it in this manner or whether it is effective or efficient given the huge variety of other tools in PLA arsenal is questionable.

Yes, I do recall that.

And it was as strange of a decision then as it would be now if they were still taking it seriously. HIMARS has been demonstrated as an anti ship platform using its regular GMLRS rockets as well, and it as equally non-viable as an anti-shipping weapon.


I suppose talking about PHL-191 or other MLRS lacking terminal guidance in their rockets in an anti-shipping role is useful in the sense of contextualizing how inappropriate it is for them to be used in that role.
 
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