PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
simonov
Junior Member
Why West (US , EU and Australia NZ) CAN do it BUT IF doing by Rest of The World is WAR CRIME????
Because they are the ruler of the world. They have 60% of global GDP, they have the dollar and the entire world finance runs because of them, they have the entire world tech stack under their control.
Compared to that, what does China have? Just some production of goods? Just production alone will not give China superpower and the ability to do what it wants. They need to create brands, standards and systems.
They need to export not just their goods but their software tech stack, hardware standards, their currency. Essentially become an alternative of the west. Otherwize, when the war starts and China gets cut off by the west, not many countries will fall into the China camp.
If the choice is between trading with China and trading with the west, pretty much every country will choose the west, even if China is their biggest trading partner. Because access to western market, finance and tech is more important than trade with China. This is the biggest Chinese weakness and it must be overcome before China starts the Taiwan war. Cause the west will impose heavy sanctions on China and force every country to enforce it.
What are you talking about we already lived through Trump’s liberation day.
And plenty of countries have accepted unequal treaties imposed by the US after the liberation day tariffs including clauses that are anti-China. They have bowed to pressure from US because of how dependent they are on US.
US and the west hasn't imposed Iran level sanctions on China where anyone that trades with Iran gets sanctioned as well. Secondary sanctions will be the most potent weapon of the west against China. They have kept their most potent weapon ready for deployment during a Taiwan war.
China can survive without the west but it will have severe economic issues if Chinese exports to the rest of the world gets cutoff if those countries are afraid to buy goods from China out of fear of the west. China will have huge crisis if those countries start to cutoff exports of raw materials to China due to fear of western sanctions. That will be like a naval blockade without imposing one with the navy.
I believe only countries already sanctioned by the west will likely resist this. Such as Russia.
China needs to bring a lot of countries firmly in the China camp. Just like Russia is in the China camp. This can only be done by making China a viable alternative to the west across all domains including tech, standards, finance, reserve currency, military and so on.
Countries can accept unequal treaties with the US because the economic relationship that matters to them is China. Very easy to shrug and say “fine” on a bad deal with a trade partner that doesn’t actually matter very much to your economic future when you have a much larger trade partner that isn’t abusing you. You should try to understand geopolitics more in functionally practical rather than ceremonially performative terms.
The symbolic theater of superficial self esteem trophies is not what actually matters. There’s a reason why the US has continued to lose strategic ground to China every year despite how much people hype the fearsome qualities of American hegemony in abstract. The direction of geopolitical power over the last decade has gone in opposite direction of the bluster. If you used what people said a decade ago to forecast how the situation looks today you’d have gotten your expectations backwards. More people should stop to think about whether their common narrative of geopolitical mechanics over the last decade has matched with the results we’re getting today. Geopolitics does not follow the logic of high school social drama. The “win” here is not defined by performative solidarity displays like you’re trying to get enough people to hold hands so you can summon Captain Planet.
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Most people see the dog and pony show and think it's reality. Then they look at the reality and think it's fake or propaganda. Most people are just NPCs.
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Dude China can issue US dollars bonds at lower interest rate than the US itself, do you comprehend what this means lol
This is how the world actually works: America wants to pretend to be ruler of the world, pretend to control global finance and tech, while China which actually makes everything, finances everyone (including America) and controls the entire tech supply chain doesn't care enough stop them pretending, so long as it doesn't affect China's control.
US can't even get Miley's Argentina from reducing trade with China...
When Taiwan war breaks you'll get a hard lesson in if US dollar is more important or if its production of goods that more important.
US itself lasted all of 10 days back in April before folding on tariff on Chinese goods, just tariff mind you, not even a total trade cutoff.
Your theory has already been tested this year and we already seen the result: $1 trillion trade surplus in just 11 month during Liberation Year, lol
See what you missed is, you know China can survive without the west, but you didn't think through if the west can survive without China.
A west that doesn't survive can't really threaten anyone can they?