PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

4

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
wuguanhui said:
I don't believe she is intending to fight China, I think she is trying to embolden the TI scum to resist peaceful reunification with a vague promise of intervention.

It's like she's dangling a check to TW while expecting the Americans to pay for it.
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Nah, Takaichi doesn't give a crap about Taiwan. Her idea behind her statements is primarily to boost her own domestic image. Her crowd are the hawkiest hawks in Japan, and they're obviously very anti-China. Aside from this, Takaichi has very little political support and it was likely that her days as a prime minister were numbered from the very get go.

The bonus was supposed to be that this would also serve to suck up to Trump. But looking at how both Trump and the DPP have played the "I don't know her" card, I doubt this part is going according to plan. If there are any winners here, it's China because it's been given a free hand to bully Japan. I don't think Japan expected China's response to be so aggressive, and the response from the Chinese public seems to have been even more aggressive.
 
C

CMP

Captain
Registered Member
4Tran said:
Nah, Takaichi doesn't give a crap about Taiwan. Her idea behind her statements is primarily to boost her own domestic image. Her crowd are the hawkiest hawks in Japan, and they're obviously very anti-China. Aside from this, Takaichi has very little political support and it was likely that her days as a prime minister were numbered from the very get go.

The bonus was supposed to be that this would also serve to suck up to Trump. But looking at how both Trump and the DPP have played the "I don't know her" card, I doubt this part is going according to plan. If there are any winners here, it's China because it's been given a free hand to bully Japan. I don't think Japan expected China's response to be so aggressive, and the response from the Chinese public seems to have been even more aggressive.
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This is actually probably the best possible time to squeeze Japan economically as hard as possible. The US is focusing on further negotiating its own post-"deal" trade negotiations, lmao, with China and will likely turn a blind eye to anything China does to Japan short of full embargo. If the nips thought they had diplomatic cover from the US to go all in on China's red lines, they clearly miscalculated completely. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if someone told me the nips were operating off of wrong intelligence and completely thought the US came out on top in the trade war negotiations. Meanwhile, the current South Korean administration seems to see the writing on the wall and is angling to ensure Japan gets pushed back down where they belong.
 
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bsdnf

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
Trump will absolutely not see this as a good move.

He holds the Taiwan card, and Japan, as a tributary state, has no right to play it on behalf of its master.

But this doesn't mean Trump will do anything to her; on the contrary, he will bully the weak and fear the strong.
 
C

CMP

Captain
Registered Member
bsdnf said:
Trump will absolutely not see this as a good move.

He holds the Taiwan card, and Japan, as a tributary state, has no right to play it on behalf of its master.

But this doesn't mean Trump will do anything to her; on the contrary, he will bully the weak and fear the strong.
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Japan being bullied to death from both sides of the pacific would just be glorious.
 
A

AndrewJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
4Tran said:
The joke's on you. If China were to become a democracy, and it started exerting military force, it'll get condemned by the Western countries just as much as a communist China would. The reason why China is treated like this is that it's a threat, and the system of government is only an excuse.
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Putin: Russia is also a "democracy", why I'm sanctioned so much? :p
 
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Wrought

Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
US withdrew Typhon missile launchers from Japan sometime during the past week.

The Typhon Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile launcher system of the US Army, deployed to the Iwakuni base in Yamaguchi prefecture since September for the US-Japan "Resolute Dragon 2025" joint exercise, was already removed, the Japanese Defence Ministry confirmed on Monday.

The news came as the diplomatic row between Beijing and Tokyo rapidly escalated over Sanae Takaichi's comment that Japan could militarily intervene in a Taiwan Strait contingency.
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It was still there as of Nov 10.

However, the missile system remained in presence until at least November 10, when civic groups of Yamaguchi and neighbouring Hiroshima prefectures reportedly petitioned for its removal. The long delay had sparked concerns about whether the deployment would become permanent.
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Realistically speaking, it is very unlikely the removal is connected to recent tensions. It would have been planned well in advance. However, political optics do matter, and the optics of this happening now for Japan are quite poor.
 
C

CMP

Captain
Registered Member
Wrought said:
US withdrew Typhon missile launchers from Japan sometime during the past week.



It was still there as of Nov 10.



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Realistically speaking, it is very unlikely the removal is connected to recent tensions. It would have been planned well in advance. However, political optics do matter, and the optics of this happening now for Japan are quite poor.
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It was supposed to be withdrawn immediately after the exercise back in August (September?). That it was left there for so long and only removed last week suggests intent of timing.
 
Wrought

Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
CMP said:
It was supposed to be withdrawn immediately after the exercise back in August (September?). That it was left there for so long and only removed last week suggests intent of timing.
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Perhaps. Or perhaps there was an argument behind the scenes and the remove-side eventually won. Or perhaps a C-17 broke down somewhere and had low priority for repairs. Many possibilities and no data points, so it's all just speculation.
 
C

CMP

Captain
Registered Member
Wrought said:
Perhaps. Or perhaps there was an argument behind the scenes and the remove-side eventually won. Or perhaps a C-17 broke down somewhere and had low priority for repairs. Many possibilities and no data points, so it's all just speculation.
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If there ever was an ongoing argument between the remove-side and keep-side, it is pretty clear that Japan's recent actions have led to a decisive shift to consensus in favor of the remove-side.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
CMP said:
If there ever was an ongoing argument between the remove-side and keep-side, it is pretty clear that Japan's recent actions have led to a decisive shift to consensus in favor of the remove-side.
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Who would have thought, Trump loves TACOs so much he is even ordering them for his vassals like Japan.

On a slightly less flippant note, I have said before that the choice on whether or not to go to war will never be Japan’s to make. Only the Israelis tail can wage the American dog into a war it doesn’t want. Everyone else needs to get with the programme or they are going to end up getting coup’d or committing suicide with two shots to the back of the head.
 
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