Quoting Patch again:
I agree with this in principle. Strictly speaking, there is no existential threat to Japan as an entity by the PRC's ascension to regional hegemony. However, there is an existential threat posed to the Japanese State as it currently exists.
Frankly, beyond territorial claims to the Senkakus/Diaoyus, there isn't any inherent contention present in the JP/PRC diplomatic relationship (barring historical enmity for the rather treatment Chinese citizens faced at the hands of the IJA). I don't think there is any reality in which China goes Hearts of Iron IV mode and captures Tokyo in furtherance of some thoughtless expansionist agenda (though you would be surprised just how many people believe this to be not just possible, but likely should the PLA capture Taiwan).
The friction comes from Japan's presence in the US-led order. The government of Japan exists in its current form one level above being a US client state. Much of the political apparatus of Japan is built around relations with the US, much of the JSDF is organized and equipped to support US operations, and much of Japan's current foreign policy is tethered to the US's interests. Furthermore, the population generally supports this status quo. Support for the US is fairly widespread, with ~75% of Japanese citizens polled stating they "Trust" the US, in contrast with only 7% towards the PRC. The fabric of modern Japanese society is as much intertwined with American influence as it is with historical roots - and I don't believe the two will separate quite so easily.
Should the United States be "pushed out" of the Pacific (without some form of conflict taking place), Japan will be forced to contend with a geopolitical landscape entirely incongruent with the one it is developed for, and will either become a regional pariah that remains US aligned, or will be forced to tear themselves away from those Red-White-and-Blue foundations upon which the modern Japanese state, political system, and society have been built. This aspect is what I view to be existential.
Could Japan realign itself as a neutral player in the Western Pacific, cooperating with both the US and China on an equal basis, and reconciling differences with the PRC? Absolutely. There's no reason why a Japan willing to become a Chinese-aligned nation should be or feel threatened by the PRC. However, that's the issue. Doing this would mean a fundamental shift for Japan - one that they seem entirely unwilling to make.
As such, yes. I agree, there is place a-plenty for Japan at the table of nations even in a China-led Western Pacific. However, that Japan is so fundamentally different from the Japan of today that much of the political establishment, and a non-insignificant portion of the citizenry would be wiling to commit what amounts to economic suicide at the cost of many lives, enormous damage, and dim hope for a victorious end - rather than making the "pragmatic" decision and working towards their own best interests.
The Japanese and principle-driven sacrifice (in many cases, outright suicide) sure do go hand in hand I guess.
Unfortunately, the ones who support Sanae Takaichi are not “a minority of Japanese ,” but the people. From my interactions with Japanese people, many of them fully justify things China finds unacceptable, such as China being split into seven parts, Taiwan being independent, etc., and they don’t even consider this offensive.
I really think China is mainly responsible. Many of China’s responses are too weak, so its final warnings and red lines don’t mean much.
I can’t help wanting to say more. Not only about Japan, but also India’s salami slicing, Western tariffs, Brazil’s betrayal after receiving Chinese investment and suddenly raising tariffs, African countries’ forced nationalization of Chinese companies — the whole world sees Chinese and enterprises as suitable targets to rob. Most countries follow a greedy algorithm: gain local optimum benefits from China.
If you don’t want to escalate conflict, you should use a tit-for-tat strategy, applying reciprocal retaliation to show you have the strength to stop such injustice. If you
do want escalation, then you should show weakness to lure the other side to keep advancing, so that when you strike back, you can destroy more of the resources they have committed.
China always has a strange kind of wishful thinking, believing everyone is a friend, so it chooses simple restraint and tolerance. This sends the wrong signal: opponents think you lack strength and are encouraged to advance further.
China’s deterrence signals are already weak, and after deterrence fails, it still doesn’t punish. If China had applied reciprocal punishment from the start in 1962, that war would not have happened, and it wouldn’t still affect China–India relations today, consuming countless resources.
China really should act tougher, for its own and other countries’ interests. If China imposed enough punishment and established clear deterrence, many lose-lose situations would not occur.