PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

4Tran said:

Once it becomes a shooting war, niceties like public opinion don't matter any more. If it looks like the Americans are going to attack, it's entirely reasonable to strike first. Of course a lot does depend on what the American buildup looks like, and I suspect that it won't be fast enough and big enough to make that much of a difference.

Also, Americans don't feel guilt.

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What is the Anti-Vietnam war movement?

That Japanese woman seems to have some kind of mental issues. I don't think she's perceiving reality correctly. Saying you're going to defend something isn't the same as being COMMITTED to defending it. She's probably imagining a week's vacation for the Japanese navy. That island is 130 km from mainland China, and if the situation warrants it, mainland China will dedicate all the necessary resources to take that island from the DPP and its international backers. When panic sets in, faced with the reality of the DPP and its international backers' impossibility to continue controlling the ruins that the island will become, with the threat of the conflict escalating into nuclear war, we'll see who is truly committed. If I have to bet they will abandon the ruins of that island.
China prefers to reach an agreement that allows the Taiwanese to maintain their high quality of life. But it seems the US and Japanese Stooges prefer to destroy that island from coast to coast and turn the lives of the Taiwanese from one of the best in Asia into absolute misery. DPP backers don't live there. They live thousands of kilometers away.

tonyget said:

In the event of a Taiwan conflict，China will be facing a difficult choice

Assume China started to attack Taiwan，the US military didn't intervene at first place. What the Chinese military should do about it?

If you do preemptive attack on US bases，what if the US has no intention to be involved in direct military conflict with China in first place？What if you never have to fight the US if you don't attack US bases first？

If you don't attack on US bases，what if the US use this opportunity to move forces from all over the world to the Pacific，you lose the window of preemptive attack if you don't make a move

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It's not that complicated. Firstly, Chinese missiles don't need to attack US assets when they're on their bases. The ships can disperse and we can still target them individually just as easily because they're tracking a target the size of the ship; they're not area/blanket striking hoping to wipe out everything in a blast radius (the base). Secondly, the whether to strike first question is also not that difficult. When the PLA attacks Taiwan island, an announcement will be made for a no-fly/no-sail zone to all foreign military vessels. Any that violate this will be considered hostile because they have no other reason to enter the area at this time. This zone should be made large enough, tailored to the range specifications of the weapons designed for this conflict so that there is enough buffer time as to not allow any enemy asset to get meaningful distance on us under the guise of ambiguity.

bsdnf said:

In my view, the biggest contribution the Self-Defense Forces could make if they truly wanted to "intervene" in the Taiwan Strait situation would be to deploy a large number of anti-ship&air missiles on islands near Taiwan, just like the USMC did in the Philippines. Essentially, they have to sacrificing their lives to slow down the PLAN’s and PLAAF's advance, then hoping that the USN carrier strike group could break through the A2AD line.

Air Self-Defense Force and Maritime Self-Defense Force are basically unreliable; they lack the capability for direct confrontation in a literal sense.

The cost, as the PLA has warned, is that the area that could truly influence the Taiwan Strait is not large, but that doesn't mean the PLA wouldn't attack the mainland. There were previous rumors of the PLA ordering 1 million drones; guess how many of those will be Shahed?

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I think it would be foolish for China to start a Taiwan invasion if Japan and US or either joins the war. If they enter, then this is no longer a war to take back Taiwan, it is a war to fight for the future of East Asia. Starting an invasion when other countries are attacking you is simply foolish.

China will instead focus on defeating US and Japan first, completely neutralizing them and forcing a surrender or atleast a ceasefire from them. Only then invade Taiwan. Yes, they can bomb the hell out of Taiwan in the meantime, make sure to destroy all defenses in the island as much as possible. But not initiate the invasion while there are still forces opposing.

So, if Japan has installed anti-ship missiles in Ryuku, the most important focus should be to take those islands first, use them as a launch pad to attack Japanese mainland from the air, forcing a surrender or a peace treaty. Also use those islands to attack Taiwan from other vectors. Why launch a risky invasion of Taiwan while those threats are not neutralized?

tamsen_ikard said:

I think it would be foolish for China to start a Taiwan invasion if Japan and US or either joins the war. If they enter, then this is no longer a war to take back Taiwan, it is a war to fight for the future of East Asia. Starting an invasion when other countries are attacking you is simply foolish.

China will instead focus on defeating US and Japan first, completely neutralizing them and forcing a surrender or atleast a ceasefire from them. Only then invade Taiwan. Yes, they can bomb the hell out of Taiwan in the meantime, make sure to destroy all defenses in the island as much as possible. But not initiate the invasion while there are still forces opposing.

So, if Japan has installed anti-ship missiles in Ryuku, the most important focus should be to take those islands first, use them as a launch pad to attack Japanese mainland from the air, forcing a surrender or a peace treaty. Also use those islands to attack Taiwan from other vectors. Why launch a risky invasion of Taiwan while those threats are not neutralized?

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US and much less Japan are not going to attack mainland China. That will be extremely escalatory, so my guess if they intervene, IF they are going to intervene at all, is going to be against Chinese forces around the island. Is going to become grinding war to the deplete enemy assets fast, or at least I think China will try to do to the enemy. Is all about who put more resources in the shortest amount of time. In this case distance is a tyranny. This is not WW2. Now if the attack Mainland China then all bets are off.

Everyone knows that if China were to engage in warfare against the allied forces of East Asia, the United States, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Europe, it would lead to catastrophic consequences—this would be nothing less than World War III. The far better outcome is for these nations to submit to China's rules within a China-led peace.

Despite this bottom-line thinking, we can still see China building a military capable of completely dominating the Western Pacific. China's supercarriers and high-performance aircraft simply don't appear to be designed to counter the militaries of Japan and South Korea. Many worry about Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons. Yet if hostilities escalate to the point of nuclear war against China, China would still emerge victorious. The Chinese flag would be raised atop the presidential palaces of both nations, though the casualties would reach levels unimaginable to anyone in the past. Russia possesses weaker conventional forces compared to NATO and China, yet it continues to achieve victories on the Ukrainian battlefield. NATO and the United States dare not intervene excessively. China, with its superior conventional forces, should naturally project a more confident posture in East Asia.