It is like 5-6% of central government budget.
Less than police and many other categories.
Less than police and many other categories.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
I kinda hope the h20 is fake to make USA spend a lot of money and intelligence for it.
I dont see H20 as useful for China as B21 for USA
I dont like vanity projects.
News has come out that Xi Jinping has said China will "resolutely oppose Taiwanese independence."
Nothing new, nothing special but worth noting as talks between the US and China are soon.
Earlier this week we heard that apparently Xi Jinping is pushing for Trump to officially oppose Taiwanese independence as well, in return for other interests.
What does everyone think about that? There was some discussion here earlier but I'd like to hear everyone's analysis and viewpoints in more detail considering the talks with US are close now.
Nothing new, nothing special but worth noting as talks between the US and China are soon.
Earlier this week we heard that apparently Xi Jinping is pushing for Trump to officially oppose Taiwanese independence as well, in return for other interests.
What does everyone think about that? There was some discussion here earlier but I'd like to hear everyone's analysis and viewpoints in more detail considering the talks with US are close now.
If it is true then I see them as separate matters. As in the US stance of changing “does not support” to “oppose” will be a road block for China in upcoming discussions. However, China may be using this issue as a tool to probe the intentions of Trump and his anti-China hawk admin. As everyone knows by now that Trump 2.0 foreign policy has been a policy of trickery, deception, duplicity, and lies.
The negotiations and talks is about stabilizing the bilateral relationship in the short term while the policy over the Taiwan will determine the long term relations. Biden and his neocons were asked the same question. They told China one thing and then did the exact opposite of what they told China.
And far less corruptions
Ugh. I forgot a word. Whatever the US stance is will not be a road block for China.
Well there is a counter argument that once the US were able to mass produce LRHW Dark Eagle and Typhoon, and subsequently surround China with hundreds of these weapons alongside Virginia class and B1Bs, Washington could again tilt the balance back in its favour. But this would likely happen after 2030. Thus, there is a window of opportunity for Beijing between now and early 2030s to take Taiwan by force. Additionally, Xi’s 4th term ends in 2032. Not sure what kinds of political consequence he could face if he were to fail to achieve anything regarding Taiwan before he retires. Finally, China’s demographic decline would start to bite real hard after 2035. Beijing would then have no choice but to spend more on butter ( a better funded universal health care for elders) than guns.
Having said that, another DPP victory during the 2028 Taiwanese Presidential election could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Any validity to this widow of opportunity (now to 2032) argument?
If you ask your average 键政 guy online they will tell you Taiwan is an inseparable part of China and not available for bargaining so Xi wouldn't do that and it must be fake news.
I agree with the opinion that Trump's words are worthless in of themselves, however even so he as president coming out publicly and declare US is against Taiwan Independence nevertheless has value in that those words will further demoralise pro-independence voices while give more ammo for pro-reunification voices like gym boss. It will materially move the needle on the issue of peaceful reunification. So as a trade that's something worth negotiating. Just the terms I would offer if it was me would be similarly transient and reversable at a moment's notice.
Declaration from Trump in exchange for China resume buying US soybean sounds about right, with conditions like if it's detected US is breaking with the spirit of the declaration by shipping weapons to Taiwan then it's back to Argentinan soybean again.
US has resorted to despite measures like , a decidedly Third Reich era tech just so they have something they can claim as a hypersonic missile, who is to say USS John F Kennedy wouldn't be the American Ulyanovsk.
By 2035, China would have:
1500 more stealth fighters if we consider a 150 per year production rate. Atleast 500 high tier CCA if we are conservative, probabably 1500 CCAs.
So, total 1900 stealth fighters, And another 1000 4.5 Gen fighters.
120 AWACS planes with KJ-500, KJ-700 and KJ-3000 all in active service
40+ Y-9 ECM planes
150+ J-16Ds
Enough HQ9C, HQ19 and HQ29 batteries to replace all the older ones they have now. so atleast 400 launchers. So, covers advanced missile and air defense.
Enough underwater drones to completely cover all of the first island chain
Atleast 3-4 Type 095, 15+ Type 093Bs
30 more destroyers/cruisers to get the total to 80, along with atleast 70-80 total Frigates
6-7 carriers in Active service, 2 more likely testing/building phase
1500 Active Nukes
Enough Hypersonic missiles to replace most of the PLARF non Hypersonics, So atleast 5-700 launchers capable of launching Hypersonics
I haven't even covered any of the new stuff like 6th gen or H-20, which will be atleast in LRIP by that point.
I would be super scared if I were US to face PLA of 2035.
Last edited: