PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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I hope not. Haven’t ordered my camping gear from Ali Express yet.
You may want to order a gas mask too.
Can you make a camping gear starter pack and share it here? It makes it easy for all of us
Maybe we can group buy from aliexpress/temu or directly from the factories to get a group discount.
No, China remains stronger. Which is why a few months before Biden could schedule the Pelosi visit to plan a full scale invasion later, China already initiated the conflict in Europe to get rid of US' allies, so it can be a pure 1 on 1.
Wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the manufactured incident to restart the war.
1. China took SK off the board with the still very unclear presidential crisis. Either way, they don't have a government right now and are paralysed. SK not being there crucially means Japan will be alone. And Japan will never move alone, because they'll get frozen out by everyone in Asia due to the legacy of Imperial Japan.
2. India is also off the board because of Bangladesh card.
3. EU is not helping an American full scale invasion of China after US just shit all over them with Ukraine.
4. US itself is undergoing deeply unpopular purges, not conductive at all to preparing an unified invasion force for such a massive operation.
5. China isn't going to sit around and let US steal her semiconductor technologies from Taiwan either.
All the played cards from the last few years are converging to a point close to today.
It's too suspicious that in this precise time where US has never had worse chances at successfully invading or even getting an invasion forced launched at all, "someone" from the KMT has decided to start firing across the lines.
You know that PRC is routinely arresting and even extraditing Taiwanese more routinely than this one incident
Actually, by the One China policy, the PRC cannot intervene because technically there is no "Taiwan".
This is the same issue that arose in HK that lead to the protests. HK could not legally extradite to mainland in most cases. As such, the person that murdered the Taiwanese could not be extradited to Taiwan (which by the legal status of the PRC, is part of mainland China). If extradition was to be allowed, than it would cover all of mainland China.
nothing on that policy said china can't intervene , also US recent remove the line that they accept one china policy
technically taiwan grovernment = rebel self-claim still at war with PRC ...intervene when enemy side capture your people = nothing wrong and have nothing to do with accept taiwan grovernment as legit
A case can be made that the detention of the crew of the Hong Tai 58 constituted an act of false kidnapping or whatever the equivalent crime is under Chinese law.
The authorities in Taipei will inevitably object, but the thing is Beijing absolutely does not consider Taipei to be a fully, if at all lawful government with the legitimate right to arrest or detain anyone, including at sea. So Beijing can probably throw in charges of piracy while they're at it, and whatever else that may apply under existing Chinese criminal code.
From there, Beijing can criminally prosecute those deemed responsible or otherwise liable all the way up to Lai Ching-te should they wish.
Put up some 10 million to 1 billion RMB (~$1.4-140 million USD) bounties -- preferably dead or alive with broad immunity and familial resettlement thrown in -- commiserating with the seniority of each wanted defendant, and see where things go. This might require some new legislation on the part of the NPC, but that shouldn't be an issue.
If Beijing is willing to put up an ~$140 million USD bounty on Lai, perhaps half or a quarter of that on his principal lieutenants and deputies, and less for lesser minions, there will definitely be people within Taiwan's local bureaucracy, security services, law enforcement, and military who'll consider the "opportunity," especially if they expect Trump to "sell them out" sooner or later.
In fact, don't be surprised if lesser members of the local coast guard and/or naval forces will voluntarily turn themselves in for lesser bounties, assuming they know they'll be granted full amnesty upon pledging allegiance to Beijing and testifying against their former criminal leadership.
Not only will this thoroughly humiliate and delegitimize the authorities in Taipei, but there isn't much they can respond with, without likely over-escalating and hurting themselves in the process.
The authorities in Taipei will inevitably object, but the thing is Beijing absolutely does not consider Taipei to be a fully, if at all lawful government with the legitimate right to arrest or detain anyone, including at sea. So Beijing can probably throw in charges of piracy while they're at it, and whatever else that may apply under existing Chinese criminal code.
From there, Beijing can criminally prosecute those deemed responsible or otherwise liable all the way up to Lai Ching-te should they wish.
Put up some 10 million to 1 billion RMB (~$1.4-140 million USD) bounties -- preferably dead or alive with broad immunity and familial resettlement thrown in -- commiserating with the seniority of each wanted defendant, and see where things go.
This might require some new legislation on the part of the NPC, but that shouldn't be an issue.If Beijing is willing to put up an ~$140 million USD bounty on Lai, perhaps half or a quarter of that on his principal lieutenants and deputies, and less for lesser minions, there will definitely be people within Taiwan's local bureaucracy, security services, law enforcement, and military who'll consider the "opportunity," especially if they expect Trump to "sell them out" sooner or later.
In fact, don't be surprised if lesser members of the local coast guard and/or naval forces will voluntarily turn themselves in for lesser bounties, assuming they know they'll be granted full amnesty upon pledging allegiance to Beijing and testifying against their former criminal leadership.
Not only will this thoroughly humiliate and delegitimize the authorities in Taipei, but there isn't much they can respond with, without likely over-escalating and hurting themselves in the process.
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The 075 fleet with the laser-equipped Type 071 which passed through Miyako earlier this month is east of Taiwan. Also note the relevant aircraft in the area during the same time.
