PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tphuang

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The US public must understand that the damage China can inflict on them is catastrophic. They and the politicians they are elect are the ones who brought it to this.

There is no keeping the conflict localized and that's entirely America's fault. There wouldn't even be a conflict if it wasn't sticking its nose into China's affairs. But that's just fine, China is going to make sure that for however long America exists, it will never again aspire to the place in the world it had in the post WWII order.

that kind of language will ensure you get into a catastrophic conflict. Even with the recent dip in public opinion of China due to COVID, the support of US intervention in Taiwan is still under 50%.

I have no issue with China looking to achieve nuclear parity. I have an issue with using nuclear weapon to threaten other countries. And I particularly do enjoy living in a prospering world where I can freely travel around and enjoying other cultures. Not really possible if this post WWII peace period is over.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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that kind of language will ensure you get into a catastrophic conflict.
No. What ensures a catastrophic conflict is America's psychotic messianism, not my language. If anything, my proposals ensure peace because the only thing Americans hold dearer than their nauseating self-righteousness is their primal desire to keep breathing.
Even with the recent dip in public opinion of China due to COVID, the support of US intervention in Taiwan is still under 50%.
I don't care what the US public thinks, they're the most heavily propagandized population on the planet. They think whatever their masters tell them to think. That "under 50%" number is nothing more than a thermostat setting that US elites can manipulate at will. China is not going to sit around reading polls, it's going to take steps much like I outlined to ensure its security by being too powerful to threaten.

Ultimately, it's a deeper and simpler issue than any opinion poll can get at. China has suffered the US's presence in its natural dominion and interference in its affairs since the PRC was founded because it couldn't do anything about it. Now those days are fast drawing to a close and the US confronts a very stark choice:
  1. America can know its place in this new world and voluntarily withdraw to the eastern Pacific.
  2. America can wage a war against China that it's certain to lose.
There is no option 3.
I have no issue with China looking to achieve nuclear parity.
That's good. I like the posts you write here and I wouldn't want China's nuclear buildup to cause you personal discomfort.
I have an issue with using nuclear weapon to threaten other countries.
That's a logically untenable position. Nuclear weapons by their very nature threaten other countries, that's why they exist.
And I particularly do enjoy living in a prospering world where I can freely travel around and enjoying other cultures. Not really possible if this post WWII peace period is over.
People travelled the world quite extensively long before America existed, that isn't going to change. The death of the post WWII order doesn't mean the end of peace, quite the contrary. Instead of the fraying and unstable "peace" we have today with America trying to keep all the plates in the air like an exhausted juggler, we'll have a durable peace based on each great power respecting the others' core interests and red lines.
 

james smith esq

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None of these scenarios that suppose an amphibious invasion are plausible unless PLAAF has established near complete air-domination to ~600 km out from the eastern strait. USAF’s primary method of attempting to prevent/hinder such an invasion will be B-1-Bs and B-52-Hs launching salvos (24 and 20, each, respectively) of LRASM from about that distance. I’m neither promoting nor extolling either the efficacy or superiority of the LRASM; I’m simply expressing a strategic concern.

Interestingly, much if the discussion that has evolved in response to my comment has missed the point of the issue I raised in the first sentence, above. That being, PLAAF, PLANAF achieving air-domination out to ~650 km from the eastern strait, an objective I believe to be achievable in the near future with currently in production programs. Perhaps, as opposed to air-domination, which is active, I should have said A2/AD, which is passive, ‘til contested.

The gist of my comment was not to suppose a Chinese reaction to US LRASMs launched against a PLAN Taiwan invasion force, but to suggest a more comprehensive defensive strategy as a proactive deterrent of US reliance on a LRASM based strategy.

In my view, a demonstrated ability to project a sizable interceptor screen of J-11s, Su-30/35s, and J-16s out to LRASM max launch range (in the same manner of the recent circum-Taiwan patrols), and the inclusion of a unified and more comprehensive EO/IRST console on PLAN major surface combatants (and an increased complement of HQ-10s) would accomplish a level of deterrence that would give the US and its “allies” even greater pause in their interventionist assumptions.
 
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tphuang

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No. What ensures a catastrophic conflict is America's psychotic messianism, not my language. If anything, my proposals ensure peace because the only thing Americans hold dearer than their nauseating self-righteousness is their primal desire to keep breathing.

I don't care what the US public thinks, they're the most heavily propagandized population on the planet. They think whatever their masters tell them to think. That "under 50%" number is nothing more than a thermostat setting that US elites can manipulate at will. China is not going to sit around reading polls, it's going to take steps much like I outlined to ensure its security by being too powerful to threaten.

Ultimately, it's a deeper and simpler issue than any opinion poll can get at. China has suffered the US's presence in its natural dominion and interference in its affairs since the PRC was founded because it couldn't do anything about it. Now those days are fast drawing to a close and the US confronts a very stark choice:
  1. America can know its place in this new world and voluntarily withdraw to the eastern Pacific.
  2. America can wage a war against China that it's certain to lose.
There is no option 3.

That's good. I like the posts you write here and I wouldn't want China's nuclear buildup to cause you personal discomfort.

That's a logically untenable position. Nuclear weapons by their very nature threaten other countries, that's why they exist.

People travelled the world quite extensively long before America existed, that isn't going to change. The death of the post WWII order doesn't mean the end of peace, quite the contrary. Instead of the fraying and unstable "peace" we have today with America trying to keep all the plates in the air like an exhausted juggler, we'll have a durable peace based on each great power respecting the others' core interests and red lines.
It sounds like you have a very biased view of America. More importantly, you are vastly underestimating America's military strength.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
It sounds like you have a very biased view of America.
Guilty as charged, I suppose. However, my views about America have no bearing on what China must and is going to do to win this contest.
More importantly, you are vastly underestimating America's military strength.
No, I don't, which is why I predicate my arguments on China continuing its very impressive military buildup for another generation.

On the subject of underestimating military strength, I find it puzzling that it's often very knowledgeable PLA watchers like yourself that underestimate China's military strength and the pace at which it grows. You yourself noted how surprised you were by the progress China made during your hiatus. Extrapolate from that.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Here is link about USAF's ability to repair runways

Now think about facing well protected air defense protected by a whole lot of Patriot missiles, short range air defense systems around these places. How many missiles would be needed in a scenario like that?

Even in the 1980s there were special runway cratering devices and bombs specific to target airfields. Some of these were long range cruise missiles which dispersed bomblets all over the runway. The idea is to make cleaning the runway a lot more difficult by spreading anti-personnel mines all over it.

As for Patriot it has its limitations. It does not have 360 degree coverage. Not that long ago Iran's proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, used this to strike targets in Saudi Arabia by going around the coverage arc and bypassing the air defense completely.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
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I dispute your premise that the US public is not looking for an all out war with China.

It is an accurate assessment to say that the general US public is not looking for an all out war with China.

But at the same time, the media and politicians in the US are uniformly hostile to China and anything Chinese. China is bad, full stop, no matter what the actual situation is

Then it's a only short step for the media and politicians to convince the US public that a war with a China is necessary, like we've seen in the Middle East.

So I do agree that MAD is the quickest (and only?) way to convince American politicians and media that a war with China is not an option.
 
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Suetham

Senior Member
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Even in the 1980s there were special runway cratering devices and bombs specific to target airfields. Some of these were long range cruise missiles which dispersed bomblets all over the runway. The idea is to make cleaning the runway a lot more difficult by spreading anti-personnel mines all over it.

As for Patriot it has its limitations. It does not have 360 degree coverage. Not that long ago Iran's proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, used this to strike targets in Saudi Arabia by going around the coverage arc and bypassing the air defense completely.
It would be the use of cluster bomb (submunitions), the launch of these bombs can reach a large area of the target, covering a very large area such as air bases. I read a long time ago from an article by an officer of the Second Artillery Corps (current PLARF) that the conventional warhead of the DF-21D could use submunitions to hit the entire area of the flight deck completely disabling the US CVN.
 

james smith esq

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It would be the use of cluster bomb (submunitions), the launch of these bombs can reach a large area of the target, covering a very large area such as air bases. I read a long time ago from an article by an officer of the Second Artillery Corps (current PLARF) that the conventional warhead of the DF-21D could use submunitions to hit the entire area of the flight deck completely disabling the US CVN.
Precisely, no need to sink it, just mission-kill!
 
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