PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
bsdnf said:
At the beginning of this century, Chinese reverse nationalists often called for surrender to the United States with the slogan “300 Tomahawks are enough to destroy our country”.
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It's funny that there was a Russian expert or general who said the same thing in the early 1990s. I remember the article he wrote on Medium reporting the growing American TLAM capability, which could reach >50,000 Tomahawks, and that no country could ever withstand an attack of that nature. Obviously, the threat was absurdly overestimated, considering that the CM stockpile, including air-launched ones, reached <10,000 units, with some stockpile crises during some American interventions.
 
bsdnf

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
It's funny that there was a Russian expert or general who said the same thing in the early 1990s. I remember the article he wrote on Medium reporting the growing American TLAM capability, which could reach >50,000 Tomahawks, and that no country could ever withstand an attack of that nature. Obviously, the threat was absurdly overestimated, considering that the CM stockpile, including air-launched ones, reached <10,000 units, with some stockpile crises during some American interventions.
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These are all the effects of the Gulf War. The PLA also focused on countering cruise missiles in the "New Three Attacks and Three Defenses" in the 1990s. It was later proved that in the OODA loop of reconnaissance, strike, assessment, and strike again, ammunition accuracy is just one of the elements.

But reverse nationalists of course do not understand military affairs at all. In their fantasy, US military can immediately obtain absolutely accurate intelligence and then use absolutely accurate Tomahawks to destroy all key assets of the PLA in a salvo.
 
bsdnf

bsdnf

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PLAwatcher12

Junior Member
Registered Member
bsdnf said:
column is the formation for the approaching and safe landing stage, not the horizontal formation in the shooting&assult stage.

During an amphibious assault, the formation will switch multiple times depending on the situation.
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I feel like that would still be risky if this was a first wave, considering the possibility there could be some resistance still now it’s unlikely considering China would only attempt a landing once they get air and naval superiority but I still feel it would be a slight risk but I trust China knows what their doing
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
AndrewJ said:
Seems MW thinks PLA has a strategic weakness against Taiwan.

US will inevitably intervene. If China strikes US bases in the region first, China will be condemned & targeted by the entire world. If not, after US is prepared & intervenes, weapons from these US bases will make China lose this war. :eek:

China will be beaten to Stone Age by thousands of LRASMs. US always has a upper hand, because LRASM is invincible. Planes that launches LRASMs are unreachable.

(From TWZ comment section)
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If they would gather in the subways for us, that is best. Do not leave a single one of them alive or they will only become terrorists. Sarin takes no hostages, accepts no surrender.
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00CuriousObserver

00CuriousObserver

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Japan tells its companies in Taiwan ‘you’re on your own’ if China invades

FDI has slumped as businesses are warned to take on burden of protecting their staff if Beijing attacks

Japanese government officials are telling companies they would be “on their own” if they needed to evacuate staff from Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack, according to people familiar with the matter, a message that has hit one of Taiwan’s largest sources of foreign direct investment.

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Two Japanese officials told the FT that, under the country’s pacifist constitution, its military could only be deployed abroad with approval from a host government.

Given that Japan does not recognise Taiwan diplomatically — as with all but 12 countries in the world — there “is no government in Taiwan from our viewpoint”, one of the officials said. They added that China was unlikely to grant the Japanese military approval to conduct evacuations.

Although the Japanese government has never confirmed this line as its official position, companies have been receiving the warnings for about three years, diplomats and corporate executives said.

Japanese diplomats told company risk officers that “you are on your own if you put significant assets in Taiwan”, said one person present at one of the conversations.

...

Foreign direct investment by Japanese companies — traditionally Taiwan’s third-largest source of FDI, after the EU and US — slumped 27 per cent last year to $452mn, and is down from a peak of $1.7bn in 2022.

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In contrast to the drop in Japanese investment, FDI from several other countries hit record levels in 2024, driven by funding for data centres and offshore wind farms. Investment from US companies reached $938mn in 2024, almost double the 2022 amount, while that from the UK almost tripled over the same period to $1.54bn.
 
Wrought

Wrought

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00CuriousObserver said:
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Two Japanese officials told the FT that, under the country’s pacifist constitution, its military could only be deployed abroad with approval from a host government.

Given that Japan does not recognise Taiwan diplomatically — as with all but 12 countries in the world — there “is no government in Taiwan from our viewpoint”, one of the officials said. They added that China was unlikely to grant the Japanese military approval to conduct evacuations.
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They are just hiding behind a legal fig leaf here. As noted a bit later, that didn't stop them in Afghanistan.

In 2021, Japan’s military participated in evacuations from Afghanistan without local government approval after the Taliban toppled the Nato-backed administration in Kabul. Some military experts cited that operation as a potential precedent for Taiwan.
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Needless to say, Afghanistan had no capability to block or punish their involvement.
 
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