PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
If you wanna see them go slower, let ASML into the Chinese market.

No harm? I don't think so. There is no such thing as letting them in for a few years unless they do something stupd enough to get kicked out again, and then we'll have to backtrack on work too. Once they establish, companies use their products and get used to it. They develop techniques unique to these machines instead of Chinese ones. Letting them in for a bit because you think it's no harm is like a former drug addict now clean and at the top of his game sitting down one night and saying there's no harm if he does crack again for just one week.
Click to expand...

Chinese fabs are already used to ASML DUV machines and we see machines stockpiled in China for future expansion.

But all the Chinese fabs know that even if they get continued access to ASML DUV machines, there's no guarantee that they won't be sanctioned. At a minimum, we will still see Huawei and SMIC continue to work with the manufacturers to improve domestic DUV machines.

My guess is that domestic DUV machines are currently useable, but they still need a few years to work out the bugs, scale up production, and come up with a more polished version.

---

And if EUV machines become available today? I do think Chinese fabs should buy as many as they need.

That doesn't stop Huawei or SMIC trying to get domestic EUV machines ready, as they know more sanctions are coming.
 
00CuriousObserver

00CuriousObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
An infographic summarizing a specific scenario from the recent wargame, one that Shilao praised as a "good picture"

1749769119919.png

Wargaming PLA's Route to Invade Taiwan – Key 4 Days

Legend:
  • PLA: Deploys two amphibious forces, first seizing Penghu, then landing on Taiwan’s east coast
  • ROC Forces: Block the Xueshan Range tunnels and the Beiyi Highway to prevent PLA from directly reaching Taipei
  • U.S.: Sends troops to assist in securing Taiwan's sea routes and maintain supplies imports
Day 1: Outlying Islands Attacked, Airports Bombed
  • The PLA launches helicopter raids and seizes control of Pengjia Islet, Lanyu (Orchid Island), Green Island, Wang’an, and Qimei, deploying missiles, drones, rockets, and other equipment
  • Jiashan and Hualien airports are struck by long-range rockets and rendered inoperable
Day 2: Penghu Falls, Communications Cut
  • Penghu comes under heavy fire, cutting off communications; the CCP announces the "recovery" of Penghu
  • Large numbers of drones are deployed to Green Island and Lanyu airports; massive drone presence appear over the Yunlin-Chiayi-Tainan region
Day 3: PLA Lands in Huadong and Hengchun
  • The PLA attacks and launches amphibious landings on the Hengchun Peninsula, Taitung, Hualien, and Yilan
Day 4: Su’ao and Hualien Ports Captured
  • The PLA captures Su’ao and Hualien ports and deploys air defense and anti-ship missiles to Eastern Taiwan
PLA Attack Region Assessment
1749767663499.png


Also, I had a Ctrl+Z bug on this site when working with tables (or heavy formatting). A single undo will wipe out a large chunk of changes, and Ctrl+Y won’t bring it back
 
O

oseaidjubzac

Junior Member
Registered Member
00CuriousObserver said:
An infographic summarizing a specific scenario from the recent wargame, one that Shilao praised as a "good picture"

View attachment 154180

Wargaming PLA's Route to Invade Taiwan – Key 4 Days

Legend:
  • PLA: Deploys two amphibious forces, first seizing Penghu, then landing on Taiwan’s east coast
  • ROC Forces: Block the Xueshan Range tunnels and the Beiyi Highway to prevent PLA from directly reaching Taipei
  • U.S.: Sends troops to assist in securing Taiwan's sea routes and maintain supplies imports
Day 1: Outlying Islands Attacked, Airports Bombed
  • The PLA launches helicopter raids and seizes control of Pengjia Islet, Lanyu (Orchid Island), Green Island, Wang’an, and Qimei, deploying missiles, drones, rockets, and other equipment
  • Jiashan and Hualien airports are struck by long-range rockets and rendered inoperable
Day 2: Penghu Falls, Communications Cut
  • Penghu comes under heavy fire, cutting off communications; the CCP announces the "recovery" of Penghu
  • Large numbers of drones are deployed to Green Island and Lanyu airports; massive drone presence appear over the Yunlin-Chiayi-Tainan region
Day 3: PLA Lands in Huadong and Hengchun
  • The PLA attacks and launches amphibious landings on the Hengchun Peninsula, Taitung, Hualien, and Yilan
Day 4: Su’ao and Hualien Ports Captured
  • The PLA captures Su’ao and Hualien ports and deploys air defense and anti-ship missiles to Eastern Taiwan
PLA Attack Region Assessment
View attachment 154179


Also, I had a Ctrl+Z bug on this site when working with tables (or heavy formatting). A single undo will wipe out a large chunk of changes, and Ctrl+Y won’t bring it back
Click to expand...
I think not attacking Taipei first is the right decision. If you look at publicly available maps of Taiwan's military bases, you'll see that Taipei and the surrounding areas have a high concentration of bases, while Tainan and Taitung only have about three to four each. However, I believe focusing the main offensive on Taitung is too aggressive due to the logistical difficulties. The offensive should start with Tainan instead.
 
Z

zlixOS

New Member
Registered Member
oseaidjubzac said:
I think not attacking Taipei first is the right decision. If you look at publicly available maps of Taiwan's military bases, you'll see that Taipei and the surrounding areas have a high concentration of bases, while Tainan and Taitung only have about three to four each. However, I believe focusing the main offensive on Taitung is too aggressive due to the logistical difficulties. The offensive should start with Tainan instead.
Click to expand...
I don't see why Taidong would be more logistically difficult than Tainan. It's not the 50s anymore, the PLAN isn't mostly composed of fishing boats. The main issue with choosing Taidong is that the deeper waters would allow for US submarine activity not dissimilar to that of WWII.
 
P

PLAwatcher12

Junior Member
Registered Member
00CuriousObserver said:
An infographic summarizing a specific scenario from the recent wargame, one that Shilao praised as a "good picture"

View attachment 154180

Wargaming PLA's Route to Invade Taiwan – Key 4 Days

Legend:
  • PLA: Deploys two amphibious forces, first seizing Penghu, then landing on Taiwan’s east coast
  • ROC Forces: Block the Xueshan Range tunnels and the Beiyi Highway to prevent PLA from directly reaching Taipei
  • U.S.: Sends troops to assist in securing Taiwan's sea routes and maintain supplies imports
Day 1: Outlying Islands Attacked, Airports Bombed
  • The PLA launches helicopter raids and seizes control of Pengjia Islet, Lanyu (Orchid Island), Green Island, Wang’an, and Qimei, deploying missiles, drones, rockets, and other equipment
  • Jiashan and Hualien airports are struck by long-range rockets and rendered inoperable
Day 2: Penghu Falls, Communications Cut
  • Penghu comes under heavy fire, cutting off communications; the CCP announces the "recovery" of Penghu
  • Large numbers of drones are deployed to Green Island and Lanyu airports; massive drone presence appear over the Yunlin-Chiayi-Tainan region
Day 3: PLA Lands in Huadong and Hengchun
  • The PLA attacks and launches amphibious landings on the Hengchun Peninsula, Taitung, Hualien, and Yilan
Day 4: Su’ao and Hualien Ports Captured
  • The PLA captures Su’ao and Hualien ports and deploys air defense and anti-ship missiles to Eastern Taiwan
PLA Attack Region Assessment
View attachment 154179


Also, I had a Ctrl+Z bug on this site when working with tables (or heavy formatting). A single undo will wipe out a large chunk of changes, and Ctrl+Y won’t bring it back
Click to expand...
I would think China would land in the west coast not the east, it would result in alot more casualties to land in the east
 
O

oseaidjubzac

Junior Member
Registered Member
zlixOS said:
I don't see why Taidong would be more logistically difficult than Tainan. It's not the 50s anymore, the PLAN isn't mostly composed of fishing boats. The main issue with choosing Taidong is that the deeper waters would allow for US submarine activity not dissimilar to that of WWII.
Click to expand...
The supply line for a landing on the east coast would be about twice as long, and the supply ships would lose the protection of shore-based anti-ship missiles.
 
4

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
FriedButter said:
It seem more to me that the intention is to cut off the east coast rather than being the main offensive.
Click to expand...
It's just a wargame. Wargames are designed to weigh the different factors that go into combat scenarios and to play out the outcomes. It's common to wargame the less promising options as a way to bring out the advantages of the more promising ones.

I'd imagine that the easiest way to cut off the east coast is to just mine the the approaches. Any minesweepers trying to clear the mines would be easy pickings, and it would be too dangerous for supply ships to land.

Fun fact 1: There's a commercial board wargame out there call Next War: Taiwan that specifically plays out the invasion of Taiwan.
Fun fact 2: The Next War series of games includes Next War: India-Pakistan and Next War: Iran. Talk about topical!
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
00CuriousObserver said:
An infographic summarizing a specific scenario from the recent wargame, one that Shilao praised as a "good picture"

View attachment 154180

Wargaming PLA's Route to Invade Taiwan – Key 4 Days

Legend:
  • PLA: Deploys two amphibious forces, first seizing Penghu, then landing on Taiwan’s east coast
  • ROC Forces: Block the Xueshan Range tunnels and the Beiyi Highway to prevent PLA from directly reaching Taipei
  • U.S.: Sends troops to assist in securing Taiwan's sea routes and maintain supplies imports
Day 1: Outlying Islands Attacked, Airports Bombed
  • The PLA launches helicopter raids and seizes control of Pengjia Islet, Lanyu (Orchid Island), Green Island, Wang’an, and Qimei, deploying missiles, drones, rockets, and other equipment
  • Jiashan and Hualien airports are struck by long-range rockets and rendered inoperable
Day 2: Penghu Falls, Communications Cut
  • Penghu comes under heavy fire, cutting off communications; the CCP announces the "recovery" of Penghu
  • Large numbers of drones are deployed to Green Island and Lanyu airports; massive drone presence appear over the Yunlin-Chiayi-Tainan region
Day 3: PLA Lands in Huadong and Hengchun
  • The PLA attacks and launches amphibious landings on the Hengchun Peninsula, Taitung, Hualien, and Yilan
Day 4: Su’ao and Hualien Ports Captured
  • The PLA captures Su’ao and Hualien ports and deploys air defense and anti-ship missiles to Eastern Taiwan
PLA Attack Region Assessment
View attachment 154179


Also, I had a Ctrl+Z bug on this site when working with tables (or heavy formatting). A single undo will wipe out a large chunk of changes, and Ctrl+Y won’t bring it back
Click to expand...
Damn not even a full week.
 
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