MAGA is just a different breed of wokeness. Anything that is not based on merit is just as detrimental.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
It's because sanctions is a tool that the Americans have used for decades and have never really suffered any consequences for using. They sanctioned Cuba, they sanctioned Iran, they sanctioned Iraq, and they sanctioned Russia. And all during this time, their opponents didn't have the wherewithal to hurt the US. And so nobody in the US, neither under Trump or under Biden ever thought that China could do anything to retaliate.
The last time the United States engaged in a trade war with a country of similar size was in 1930, against the United Kingdom. It is obvious that the United States has forgotten how to conduct trade wars with its equal rivals.
this trade talk between US vs CN . if china agree supply RE to US without remove high end chip , EUV machine ban . then that gonna be huge L for CN
even if US allow nvidia selling down-grade chip such as H-20 in exchange of RE . that still big L for china
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Do we want foreign EUVs or chips to flood the Chinese market? I feel at this point that China's doing so well there that I'd want them to keep the ban and hostilities on even for free. To be totally honest, if I were a Chinese negotiator, I would have a very hard time answering the question, "What do you want?" I want the US to keep up what it's doing because all of it harms America while either not impacting China or providing positive drive for development. If I took a look at what they're offering, I'd feel like I'm shopping at a week-long yard sale at the end of Sunday 10 minutes from closing. Nothing here is worth a shit.
Eh, if the asking price to lift semiconductor equipment restrictions is cheap then I don’t see why not. It’s not like domestic tooling development stops or the market shrinks. These days any Chinese fab has to include geopolitical risk in their production planning so the market support for domestic tools is basically guaranteed regardless, and if restrictions lift you can expand capacity much more quickly and aggressively. The problem they’d be solving isn’t whether China can get to advanced node parity on its own in short order but how quickly China can expand advanced node capacity for every chip design outfit that wants to do advanced node work. Using some foreign tools to help you get 3nm production in mainland Chinese fabs so that Xiaomi can just make their chips in the PRC surely beats depending on TSMC access right? At the very least it’s worth playing hard ball on this item to see what you can get. You can bank the win without trusting it to be durable. Don’t let the “fuck you” reflex get in the way of a good deal.
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Actually, this is an interesting idea.
As we know, SMIC is led by some of the top former TSMC talents. If they were to able obtain EUV, they could likely very quickly catch up to TSMC in terms of process. If China is able to quickly scale production of 2nm chips, where does that leave the Taiwanese economy? Basically up to 15% of their GDP and their best source of well-paying jobs becomes at risk. What does Taiwan do in the event of a massive local recession?
The US will simply ban the support after six months.
rare earth sale exchange 100% remove every restriction on ASML vs china trade still good
china can buy lastest chipmaking EUV from ASML enjoy full support , maintain , upgrade , anytime without any US restriction
this agreement can not be remove by next president/grovernment of US and anyone after them
that should be china base line demand from trade talk