PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf said:

It could be kinda funny if China launched AR on the 1st of April and everyone thought it was an Aprils Fools and only believed it was real after it was over.

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as they should
it very rare for US to have a guy like trump in charge : everything in US now are total mess , allied stay away , cracking everywhere
after 4 years they everything gonna go back under democrat rule , cause even more trouble for china

in term of anti-china tactics , US right wing like trump talk big but stupid , meanwhile democrat is other way around , honey talk but alway hit china very hard with all the sanction , tech curb , allied network forging , propagranda ...etc

There can be a very crude interpretation for this phrase… don’t know if that’s intentional.

siegecrossbow said:

View attachment 149151

There can be a very crude interpretation for this phrase… don’t know if that’s intentional.

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What does it mean?

Blockade of Taiwan island.
North - Taipei and Keelung sea port
West - Taichung
South - Kaohsiung sea port and Zuoying naval base (largest naval base in Taiwan)
East - Taitung and Hualien Airforce base (largest air base in Taiwan)

What you think of this?

GulfLander said:

What you think of this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1906904238565077411

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Nury Vittachi tends to historically write with a mild pro-PRC prose.
Nevertheless, the points he gives on this one are mostly garbage. Not something to really comment on.

Neurosmith said:

And what about their 200+ F-16Vs and 50+ Mirage 2000s?

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A note on this.
About ~120 of the F-16V are upgraded from the F-16A/B. What is notable is that the ROCAF said they will no longer scramble fighters to intercept PLAAF flights due to cost (and frequency). Further to this, the airframes are 30 years old and likely have a significant amount of fatigue. Could they hold up in high tempo operations?

Also, 10 of these are in the USA, so in the event of war, they are unlikely to arrive

The Mirage 2000 are too old, equivalent to a 3rd/4th line fighter (J-10B level). The J-10C thoroughly outclasses it with radar range (probably) and missile range. 4th Generation fighters without the benefit of stealth basically operate in a "see-first/shoot-first" environment. They are also suffering from maintenance issues with 8 losses out of 60.

In the light of Trump's bellicose rhetoric against Iran, if the USA indeed finds itself directly involved in the war in the Middle East, would that influence China's decision to take Taiwan while USA is distracted ? Or will they wait for couple of more decades until they are 100% sure they have military superiority over the USA ?

RedBaron said:

In the light of Trump's bellicose rhetoric against Iran, if the USA indeed finds itself directly involved in the war in the Middle East, would that influence China's decision to take Taiwan while USA is distracted ?

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The PRC is not looking for a distraction to "take Taiwan".