PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
I don't think China would resort to kinetic options in the absence of severe provocation or crossing of red lines. I'd even go as far as to say that China would unlikely respond military even if Taiwan verbally declares independence without a drastic change to its foreign policy.

China's policy is that the Taiwan issue is to be resolved peacefully unless all options are out. The optics of a hypothetical conflict are extremely important and I doubt China would be okay with being the ones during the first shot.
I think this romantic view of the cross Straits situation is not even remotely reflective of the actual situation.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
The absent declaration of independence is the last line that holds them as part of China. That is the only thing that the PRC can look to as a reason not to attack. If this is broken and there is no military action to bring them under control, then that is acceptance of their independence. It is Chinese policy to attack in that event.

Even the former chairman of the DPP Frank Hsieh knew this, and even visited the mainland to promote understanding between his side and mainland.

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Only deep green is stupid enough to toe this line. They would probably still be in the dumpster if they weren't rescued by Obama/Clinton's "Pivot to Asia". Fortunately (Unfortunately for deep green), this was the usual talk-talk by politicians, followed by ISIS (Inshallah), and the real follow up became 300 J-20s, rapid development/deployment of J-16D, 3 carriers, etc.
 

sr338

New Member
Registered Member
Maybe you are the one that doesn't know the power level differences.
No :cool:

An de-industrialized whose navy is made up of outdated ship from 30yrs ago? vs the factory of the world and the largest fleet of modern warships in the world?
Even the Pacific War Japs are in a better position. If Nuke didn't exist China would have already annexed Alaska and the West Coast.

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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
No :cool:

An de-industrialized whose navy is made up of outdated ship from 30yrs ago? vs the factory of the world and the largest fleet of modern warships in the world?
Even the Pacific War Japs are in a better position. If Nuke didn't exist China would have already annexed Alaska and the West Coast.
Just let you know, your post implies China doesn't have the capability to do so.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
No :cool:

An de-industrialized whose navy is made up of outdated ship from 30yrs ago? vs the factory of the world and the largest fleet of modern warships in the world?
Even the Pacific War Japs are in a better position. If Nuke didn't exist China would have already annexed Alaska and the West Coast.
When I read your post I can only think of the phrase "irrational exuberance".

In any case it is disingenuous to paste a 052D next to an Arleigh Burke and insinuate that they are somehow the same. They are not. In fact I think I recall Indopacom Commander Paparo during an interview refer to the 052D as a "0.6 Arleigh Burke".
 

sr338

New Member
Registered Member
When I read your post I can only think of the phrase "irrational exuberance".

In any case it is disingenuous to paste a 052D next to an Arleigh Burke and insinuate that they are somehow the same. They are not. In fact I think I recall Indopacom Commander Paparo during an interview refer to the 052D as a "0.6 Arleigh Burke".
Arleigh Burke are outdated crap compare to 052D.
Outdated radar, outdated missiles, outdated hull
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Arleigh Burke are outdated crap compare to 052D.
Outdated radar, outdated missiles, outdated hull
The SPY-1's technological level surely is outdated compared to modern AESAs, but its Aegis combat management system is state of the art and can track thousands of targets, and it's not clear to me that it's automatically less effective than the Type 346 just because one is PESA and one is AESA. It's not clear how many targets the combat data system associated with the Type 346 can track, and neither is it clear how effective or robust China's approximation of the American CEC datalink is, assuming the PLAN has one in the first place. Also, your comment about outdated missiles is just nonsensical, along with your comment about "outdated hull". What does "outdated hull" even mean? Also, 96 VLS cells vs only 64 VLS cells is not something one can waive away with a fanboi hand like it somehow means nothing. One of the metrics used to gauge the strength of a country's navy is VLS count, and by that measure the USN still far outpaces the PLAN. It would be a grave mistake to think that the Chinese military would simply roll over the US military if it came to fight China over a Taiwan war. I have no doubt that Chinese generals do NOT make this kind of rookie mistake, and that irrational exuberance is mainly limited to internet generals.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
It would be a grave mistake to think that the Chinese military would simply roll over the US military if it came to fight China over a Taiwan war. I have no doubt that Chinese generals do NOT make this kind of rookie mistake, and that irrational exuberance is mainly limited to internet generals.
Why do they always forget whenever the fight is in China’s periphery it’s not the USN vs the PLAN it’s the locally supportable USN( and whatever USAF you can sustain) vs the entirety of the PLAN+PLARF+PLAAF.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Why do they always forget whenever the fight is in China’s periphery it’s not the USN vs the PLAN it’s the locally supportable USN( and whatever USAF you can sustain) vs the entirety of the PLAN+PLARF+PLAAF.
And which twit do you claim is forgetting this? Also, perhaps you can make a knowledgeable argument about what the approximate quantity of "locally supportable" USN actually is. I also suppose you think there is some kind of magical maritime Great Wall where the USN's Atlantic assets are somehow magically prevented from sailing over to the Pacific to replace destroyed Pacific assets because... reasons
 
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