Yes, if the war goes without much damage to Taiwan or even the mainland. Sentiments change if Japan/other invaders actually achieve some operational success.
I think there is a bimodal distribution of probabilities here. IMO chances are high that in 2027/2028 China may try to take advantage of a non-interventionalist president like Trump to attempt AR. If not, then the next 'hump' will be as Xi winds down his career; he may feel he should be the one to achieve the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland but may be willing to wait until time has given the Chinese military (and economy) the longest time possible to expand and mature before attempting AR.
This definitely beats both the nipple level armor rigs and gripping a rifle by the barrel..... but not by much.
That's what I mean, door to door, bomb to bomb until no more invader threat remains.
Thailand is 100% not going to fight China.
Great! Japan get bombed to pre-industrial level and the USA get pushed back to North America.
Maybe you are the one that doesn't know the power level differences.
I don't think China would resort to kinetic options in the absence of severe provocation or crossing of red lines. I'd even go as far as to say that China would unlikely respond military even if Taiwan verbally declares independence without a drastic change to its foreign policy.
This is correct, and the last thing here that is correct.
ROC has no pro-PRC policies. They have their own currency, passport, governing body, etc... The absent declaration of independence is the last line that holds them as part of China. That is the only thing that the PRC can look to as a reason not to attack. If this is broken and there is no military action to bring them under control, then that is acceptance of their independence. It is Chinese policy to attack in that event.
Ok this is also correct but this is a repeat of the first sentence.
No. Optics for whom? To the West, China will always be wrong. To China's allies, China has been clear on the issue and every country understands by accepting the One China Policy, which is a requirement for diplomatic relations with China. No other country cares enough to have an opinion.
We definitly are ok with it, because the ROC can become independent through declaration. They don't ever have to fire a shot to get there and nobody in the world is stupid enough to shoot at us while making the declaration. So if we won't fire the first shot, then we can only watch as they slip away and that is not what we are about.
In fact, it is not so certain. Since last year, the official tone has changed to "unswervingly promote reunification" instead of "peaceful reunification". Military reunification, even if the Taiwan has not formally declared independence, is obviously taken into consideration. The Taiwan issue involves the legitimacy of the PRC. It is unthinkable for the PRC to allow Taiwan to declare independence.