PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I know, but you asked what would happen. Propaganda blaring is what would happen. I don't think US is insane enough to try some fucked up version of the Berlin airlift.

IMO, in an event of an AR event, I don't think a blockade is likely. I personally don't see PLA allowing United States to simply gather forces for a more protracted conflict. Either you go all in, or you don't.
Blockade the island first and watch the Hegemon's reactions. If the Hegemon is gathering forces, give a warning, then wipe out the infrastructures on the First Island Chain.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Blockade the island first and watch the Hegemon's reactions. If the Hegemon is gathering forces, give a warning, then wipe out the infrastructures on the First Island Chain.

The first thing the US will do in response to a declared blockade is to deploy its carriers into the region. This is 100% guaranteed. They do this right now for a lot less than a blockade. So what's the point of even announcing a blockade? It'll just give TW time to prepare.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The first thing the US will do in response to a declared blockade is to deploy its carriers into the region. This is 100% guaranteed. They do this right now for a lot less than a blockade. So what's the point of even announcing a blockade? It'll just give TW time to prepare.
Announcing a blockade? Why would Beijing do that instead of actually implementing one?
You think PLA fears American carriers? You really should read this thread from the beginning.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Announcing a blockade? Why would Beijing do that instead of actually implementing one?
You think PLA fears American carriers? You really should read this thread from the beginning.

I don't think you understood what I wrote.

You said blockade the island until the US starts gathering forces. I'm telling you the moment China start blockading the island, the US will 100% start deploying its carriers. So AR will start anyway, why bother with a blockade when that will just give TW more time to prepare?
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I don't think you understood what I wrote.

You said blockade the island until the US starts gathering forces. I'm telling you the moment China start blockading the island, the US will 100% start deploying its carriers. So AR will start anyway, why bother with a blockade when that will just give TW more time to prepare?
The US sending one or two carriers to break the blockade is suicidal.
Blockade and bomb the island, not just a naval blockade.

Patchwork gave a very detail description on how things will go down. Things will only get worse for the US as time goes on

 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
Japan yearns to be liberated, only by dragging the US in a big fight with China can Japan have any hopes of a better future. It may seem counter intuitive but a military defeat of Japan (and the US) against the militarily more powerful China is precisely what Japan needs right now. In this context I think the ultranationalist Abe's interests and actions actually align with PRC more, compared to America's loyal dog Kishida, despite Abe's war crime dog whistles. 台湾有事は日本有事 maybe shouldn't be interpreted as Japan's neo-imperial ambitions, but rather like Japan's last plea for help, to save themselves when Taiwan gets liberated. If these Ultranationalist factions succeeds, they would be in some sense a successful version of 曲线救国, perhaps CPC overlords will treat the Japanese better than Uncle Sam's dirty Gaijins.

Also I think Republic of Korea shouldn't be compared with Japan in terms of historical animosity and territorial aggression against China. They (the elites and the masses) can and will switch alliances without much bloodshed, even if they are presently occupied by GIs.
 
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