PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

coolgod

coolgod

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A nice Taiwan political spectrum map I came across, according to polling the left (less separatism) side only has 12% of public support, while the right (more separatism) side has 88% public support. Without a war or major bloodshed, I don't see how PRC can rule over Taiwan without much resistance.

Suppose you "remove" the rightmost 20% population of the population, then shift everyone to the left one stage, you would barely arrive at a Hong Kong level of political spectrum.

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Biscuits

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coolgod said:
View attachment 142162

A nice Taiwan political spectrum map I came across, according to polling the left (less separatism) side only has 12% of public support, while the right (more separatism) side has 88% public support. Without a war or major bloodshed, I don't see how PRC can rule over Taiwan without much resistance.

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Such polling are not reliable as long as US is threatening the island and it's population. A fair referendum can only be conducted after all illegal foreign interference is removed.
 
B

Biscuits

Colonel
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coolgod said:
The person who gave the data 王炳忠 would definitely be aware of the polling biases. I doubt the true numbers would differ by more than 10%.
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There is no fair polling when pro-government sentiment is forcibly oppressed. Same reason why those "lets join Russia" referendums aren't legit. US/traitor KMT chase out, censor or suppress everyone who doesn't believe in Taiwan annexation.
 
Luke Warmwar

Luke Warmwar

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I think Coolgod’s point is that, absent a war, there’s little prospect of reunification. That seems fair. Sure, voting intentions may change if the media environment shifts, but that environment is unlikely to change under current management.

That said, I don’t think that voting intentions are a fair proxy for armed resistance. Even if a person has a preference for independence, it doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily pick up arms. It’s dangerous to read too much into it either way—clearly in the case of Ukraine, for example, Russia misjudged.

It’s possible attitudes will shift over time too. The military imbalance will become more apparent, and the DPP will eventually be voted out. That may create the conditions for improved relations.
 
coolgod

coolgod

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Luke Warmwar said:
It’s possible attitudes will shift over time too. The military imbalance will become more apparent, and the DPP will eventually be voted out. That may create the conditions for improved relations.
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So the main article I posted talked about how Taiwan (politics and public sentiments) slowly slid to the right side of the chart, this occurred even when KMT was in power, see Taiwan during Ma's time in office.
 
C

Chevalier

Captain
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The biggest obstacle to reunification is the US and indeed, white western armies in Asia and the persistence of white supremacy over Asians. So long as Chinese in Taiwan believe that white people are superior to Chinese, they will continue to be for independence, despite the same Chinese in Taiwan going to shanghai to have fun and shop and do business. The strong take and do what they want, the weak will follow and self rationalise afterwards.
 
Luke Warmwar

Luke Warmwar

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Registered Member
coolgod said:
So the main article I posted talked about how Taiwan (politics and public sentiments) slowly slid to the right side of the chart, this occurred even when KMT was in power, see Taiwan during Ma's time in office.
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Could this be framed as an adapting of national identity to material conditions?

Originally the identity was the ‘true china’ when there was hope of retaking the mainland. When that became impossible, the identity shifted towards the next realistic goal, being independence.

Once that becomes evidently less feasible, the identity may shift again to accommodate reality.
 
B

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Luke Warmwar said:
I think Coolgod’s point is that, absent a war, there’s little prospect of reunification. That seems fair. Sure, voting intentions may change if the media environment shifts, but that environment is unlikely to change under current management.

That said, I don’t think that voting intentions are a fair proxy for armed resistance. Even if a person has a preference for independence, it doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily pick up arms. It’s dangerous to read too much into it either way—clearly in the case of Ukraine, for example, Russia misjudged.

It’s possible attitudes will shift over time too. The military imbalance will become more apparent, and the DPP will eventually be voted out. That may create the conditions for improved relations.
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Even if they want to negotiate to rejoin, why should China accommodate blatant traitors that spent decades conspiring with China's greatest enemy on annexing parts of her? They're not entitled to pardons.

Insist on armed de-americanization and de-Japanization the same way Kiev has insisted on de-russification in the recaptured separatist areas. Only after the pro-white house have been eradicated can Taiwan's future be discussed without illegal hostile influence affecting the polls and public opinion.

Thats the whole reason to build up an unparalled military force in the current frozen conflict.
 
coolgod

coolgod

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Registered Member
Biscuits said:
Even if they want to negotiate to rejoin, why should China accommodate blatant traitors that spent decades conspiring with China's greatest enemy on annexing parts of her? They're not entitled to pardons.

Insist on armed de-americanization and de-Japanization the same way Kiev has insisted on de-russification in the recaptured separatist areas. Only after the pro-white house have been eradicated can Taiwan's future be discussed without illegal hostile influence affecting the polls and public opinion.

Thats the whole reason to build up an unparalled military force in the current frozen conflict.
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Are you suggesting that PRC needs a white glove group in Taiwan to help teach some proper ideology (especially towards extreme separatists), before reunification? The DPP is investigating and disbanding Chang An-lo's Chinese Unification Promotion Party. I think we found a good candidate already.
 
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