Come to think of it, there actually aren't that many examples of failed large scale amphibious assaults in modern times (since 1900). Battle of Gallipoli and Battle of Kinmen are the only ones that I can think of.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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Come to think of it, there actually aren't that many examples of failed large scale amphibious assaults in modern times (since 1900). Battle of Gallipoli and Battle of Kinmen are the only ones that I can think of.
Ironically the example that is often quoted in Taiwan as comparison is indeed Normandy. I think pop media depictions via things like Saving Private Ryan and Call of Duty has made Normandy seem much more in the balance than it was in reality. Besides the often depicted Omaha the landings at other beach were fairly straight forward. Some objects for D-day like Caen were not achieved for a month after the landing but those schedules seem rather optimistic to start with. At the end of the day any argument from ROC using Normandy as example to how hard amphibious assault will be could always be answered with "but it worked didn't it?"
Battle of Kinmen, the other often quoted example from ROC was the first large scale amphibious assault by PLA. Its failure itself provided many valuable lessons for the PLA so that six month later the larger scale Battle of Hainan was much better organized and wildly successful.
I really doubt it. Taiwan, in a statement from the MoD, noted that a PLA landing exercise that was held in late August and early September in the field area near Dongshan Island in Fujian used various types of aircraft, helicopters and drones, in addition to landing ships and cargo ships to transport ground forces.
In reality, Taiwan is increasing its order for MANPADS systems from the US fivefold, having previously been scheduled to buy 500 Stinger missiles, 178 launchers and 170 sets of IFF systems. But now, according to a document submitted to the Taiwanese legislature, they intend to add another 1,985 missiles to the order and 549 launchers worth $2.16 billion. The US has already approved an increase in the scale of the deal.
They'll have enough launchers to cover the entire coastline with 1 launcher for every 2 km.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Rather than disproving the original point, you basically proved it more! Taiwan and America are obviously looking at Su25s in Ukraine when thinking of PLAAF CAS to suggest stingers as the solution.
Against the kinds of weapons the PLA will be deploying for an actual landing, stingers will be about as much use for Taiwan as Stingers were for the Taliban against the Americans.
They will be instrumental in taking down PLA helicopters and also the drones that provide real-time intelligence to the PLA.
They should not equip all these launchers in their Coastal Artillery and Anti-Aircraft units, some should be kept in reserve, including the missiles.
This one was considerably smaller than the other 2 with poor motivations and objectives and more akin to a stunt than anything.
There are rumors that the PLANMC strength will expand to 15 brigades - potentially expanding the 6 Marine Brigades to 9 brigades, 1 Special Forces brigade to 3 brigades, and 1 aviation brigade to 3 brigades. This would allow the PLANMC to expand to 100,000 personnel in the future, expanding from the current 8 brigades with about 40,000 personnel to 15 brigades with 100,000 personnel.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Sure, just like TOWs will be able to sink the PLAN landing fleet.
The only way they will get to even have a pop at PLA helicopters is if the PLA majorly messed up previous steps.
The big drones will be outside of the range of MANPADs (just look at how many Predators have been downed by MANPADS world wide, and the kind of SAMs used to actually achieve kills against Predators and the like); Stingers will be a waste against medium to small drones, and they frankly struggle against such targets, just look at Ukraine and how much impact on drones Stingers have had.
Investing so heavily on MANPADs is likely blowing your small arms budget on pistols. Can they be useful? Sure. Are they likely to make much impact? Not really.
Such heavy investment in MANPADs only makes sense if you think PLAAF CAS is at the same level as Russia’s that relies on low flying Su25s doing strafing runs and rocket attacks.