PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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They are of old stock that are past expiration rate. Same issue with the Magic and MICA AAMs used by their Mirages. To compensate for potential duds Mirage 2000s in ROCAF always take off with full or near full load in combat mission or interceptions.
the answer is this incident show both US and taiwan currently seriously look down on PLA CAS , fire support ability
somehow they stupid enough thinking when PLA armored landing on the beach of taiwan , PLA fire support element , aircraft , drone will let them easily counter the landing force with freaking ATGM like TOW or very short range manpad like stinger
TOW and Stinger can't not fire indoor specially inside a cramp bunker
both require a certain open space to operation , TOW realistic effective range are less than 3000m because the limited quality of optical sight
unless PLA military turn out to be super incompetent , there are no way they let anyone guarding the beach fire at them with short range weapon out in open during the landing phase like that
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
That or it's just the best that they can do and it's better than nothing especially because some action, any action, can be dressed up as adequate action to the militariliy illiterate, which is the majority of the population. Democracies have to put on a show for the people, waste time and money cheating peoples' votes.
Having your missiles plummet into the sea is not a good look for anybody. It is better if they just paraded the missile around without firing it.
In the modern era, annexation is unpopular. After achieving the breakup of USSR, China used covert machinations against the now relatively helpless successor republics, in particular Russian Federation, and acquired from them resource rights, military alliance and other privileges.
So against Japan, China waged defensive war and succeeded in holding Taiwan and Manchuria. Whereas against the Russian Empire, China had already lost territory and it was hard to argue for the reverse annexation of now mostly Russian populated territory. So instead they waged covert diplomatic war against the USSR and then created the conditions for a successor regime that carries out China's wishes.
In the end, both Russia and Japan both got absolutely bodied in their own ways. Look up what the collapse of USSR did to Russian life expectancy.
China and Russia today have a well demarcated border along natural defenses i.e. rivers. Why mess that up? Yes, China historically controlled the area where Vladivostok is, but today it is populated by Russians and it would be hard to take it back.
After WW2 the Soviets could have easily annexed Manchuria if they wanted to. It was them who reconquered Manchuria from Japan. Afterwards they gave it back to China. In a position of strength they gave Manchuria back to China, as well as the railway to Port Arthur, and the Russian concession in Port Arthur.
After WW2 the Soviets could have easily annexed Manchuria if they wanted to. It was them who reconquered Manchuria from Japan. Afterwards they gave it back to China. In a position of strength they gave Manchuria back to China, as well as the railway to Port Arthur, and the Russian concession in Port Arthur.
Just don’t apply this logic to Ukraine, okay? - Lai
Well tbh the situation in China is almost the exact same as in Ukraine, except China is way more powerful than Ukraine relative to the one trying to invade them.
Like imagine if Ukraine had air and sea parity with Russia and enough missiles/airpower to lay waste to anything in a 2000km radius around them. I think Russians would be idiots to attack then. That the Americans still contemplate an assault on Taiwan is a testimony to how ideologically dogmatic and far from reality their leadership has become.
Actually quite a few American officials have noticed that the idea is impossible, and argue for another vector of attack against China, such as economically, in the SCS, or in far away 3rd world proxies.
Nearly all American official believes America to be the most powerful country in the world, but if the conventional logic of power = financial economy + industry size, then it is China that is the most powerful. However even if many high ranking politicians in US are delusional about being the most powerful country, they're rapidly realizing that even if you're the world's no1, if you attack into the carefully fortified areas of the world's no2, well you might get hard clapped.
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