PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

votran

New Member
Registered Member
If you’re not willing to integrate the population back into the nation then don’t invade. Indiscriminate murder tends to motivate more resistance, not less. Some people forget the point of rule is not control or victory at any and all costs.
well that only happen if the place you invade too big and too hard to control , im pretty sure a tiny island is not one of them

also act humane in war specially again US/NATO/Allied do nothing good at all

they own entire world english media/social media , top 1 in disinformation warfare , even if you act humane you still end up being the most bloodthisty evil in the eyes of many "not so well informed" people

basically toothless evil

and that not even count their military/navy power enjoy time to prepare and show up all together to jump you after so many time you wasted dealing with the so called humane warfare

just look at what russian got in ukraine for their humane special military operation
 

votran

New Member
Registered Member
so yeah between become a toothless evil , gift time for US/NATO/Allied to show up , bog-down in urban combat waste time resource

and become a real one to get the job done quick and decisive , solve any issue later when you already won and control the island
(which are way easier)

if im in charge i pick the 2nd option in a heart beat
 

bajingan

Senior Member
do you guy think if taiwan "issue" happen PLA will "do things" similar as western/us/anti-china reddit sub often predict ?

such as : humane war avoid civilian harms , only target military target allow enemy use every dirty trick available to fight back and slow down PLA (just like what ukrainian did) buy time for US/west support ?

personally you can call me crazy and insane but im hoping china/pla will not do that

im in favor of do thing in brutal way for quick success : take the island for nuclear submarine base break 1st island chain

not people , infrastructure , semi conductor industry or anything else may cause the "process" slow down

personally i think having few milions of "could be traitor" hongkonger already enough for china to deal with , no point accept ~30 milion more
infrastructure and the need for people living on that island also doesn't matter , china can refill the population and rebuild all infrastructure in no time
IMHO that would actually depends if the AR and subsequent conflict against the u.s stays conventional

If the u.s commit solely in using conventional forces against PLA then China will respect the human rights of the Taiwanese people, but if the u.s uses tactical nukes on PLA forces just like what they are preparing to do and when that happens and the Taiwanese people cheering on and supports the u.s in committing another Hiroshima against China, then all bets if off.

When you see PLA forces decimated by u.s tactical nukes I don't see public opinion in China will supports the PLA treating Taiwanese with kids gloves. And the scenario you describe above might well happen
 

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
do you guy think if taiwan "issue" happen PLA will "do things" similar as western/us/anti-china reddit sub often predict ?

such as : humane war avoid civilian harms , only target military target allow enemy use every dirty trick available to fight back and slow down PLA (just like what ukrainian did) buy time for US/west support ?

personally you can call me crazy and insane but im hoping china/pla will not do that

im in favor of do thing in brutal way for quick success : take the island for nuclear submarine base break 1st island chain

not people , infrastructure , semi conductor industry or anything else may cause the "process" slow down

personally i think having few milions of "could be traitor" hongkonger already enough for china to deal with , no point accept ~30 milion more
infrastructure and the need for people living on that island also doesn't matter , china can refill the population and rebuild all infrastructure in no time
If its just restart of civil war, China doesn't have a need to move very fast or use scorched earth tactics. But if we're talking a full scale US invasion into Taiwan, China will have no choices but to delete as much as they need to for PLA operational safety as US isn't an enemy they can fart around against.

A huge part of Chinese strategy against KMT is to evacuate/empty the province from civilians they can use as hostages.

People inside Taiwan can broadly be classified into 3 categories:

1. Loyalists. They will evacuate to the mainland before shooting starts and therefore be 100% safe.

2. Unclear loyalty. China can designate temporary refugee zones inside the province where they'll sit out until the PLA can pick them up.

3. "Civilian" occupiers. People who are not really Chinese, just pretending, and have affiliation with US/Japan other aggressor government. Their affiliation is made clear either by bearing arms and/or by not following government evacuation orders.

There's not so much room for dirty tricks they can pull. Sure they can try to take civilians as hostages, but such a move would cause huge turmoil, and probably complete anarchy as Beijing has its own undercover fighters inside Taiwan as well. KMT recuits from the locals and don't have high morale to begin with, they can most likely not carry out Hamas tactics on China.
IMHO that would actually depends if the AR and subsequent conflict against the u.s stays conventional

If the u.s commit solely in using conventional forces against PLA then China will respect the human rights of the Taiwanese people,
Not necessarily so, China will do what's needed to defend itself. If US troops successfully take huge ground inside Taiwan, there's no reason to believe China wouldn't scorch the whole place down to deny it's value to the invaders.

When the Japanese invaded in ww2, China destroyed dams which flooded 10 000s of invaders and local civilians as well. The land of China is ancient and steeped with the blood of both it's defenders and failed invaders. Taiwanese may be asked to make the ultimate sacrifice to halt enemy advance, not all of them will go happily or willingly offer, but the other option is to allow millions of Chinese to come under the occupation of genocidal invaders.

It is better to die like Russians surrounded by ISIS in Syria, airstrikes falling on you and the enemy alike, than to be killed and raped by invaders.
but if the u.s uses tactical nukes on PLA forces just like what they are preparing to do and when that happens and the Taiwanese people cheering on and supports the u.s in committing another Hiroshima against China, then all bets if off.
When you see PLA forces decimated by u.s tactical nukes I don't see public opinion in China will supports the PLA treating Taiwanese with kids gloves. And the scenario you describe above might well happen
Tactical nukes by US will be replied with by strategical nukes on US. Probably Hawaii or Guam. Or counterforce strike on mainland USA if tactical nukes go off inside mainland China. This is China's nuclear stance of not starting nuclear wars but ending them if they happen.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
well that only happen if the place you invade too big and too hard to control , im pretty sure a tiny island is not one of them

also act humane in war specially again US/NATO/Allied do nothing good at all

they own entire world english media/social media , top 1 in disinformation warfare , even if you act humane you still end up being the most bloodthisty evil in the eyes of many "not so well informed" people

basically toothless evil

and that not even count their military/navy power enjoy time to prepare and show up all together to jump you after so many time you wasted dealing with the so called humane warfare

just look at what russian got in ukraine for their humane special military operation
lol don’t think that your own population won’t dissent to the wanton slaughter of supposed kinsmen. Right to rule matters. It’s not all about hard power.
so yeah between become a toothless evil , gift time for US/NATO/Allied to show up , bog-down in urban combat waste time resource

and become a real one to get the job done quick and decisive , solve any issue later when you already won and control the island
(which are way easier)

if im in charge i pick the 2nd option in a heart beat

The fastest way is to get a surrender. Razing everything to the ground doesn’t do that (no one in Gaza is surrendering just because Israel decided to smash everything). It doesn’t even make sense from the standpoint of holding territory because you need the civilian infrastructure to support your own presence. You’re talking lazy nonsense right now.
 
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zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
IMHO that would actually depends if the AR and subsequent conflict against the u.s stays conventional

If the u.s commit solely in using conventional forces against PLA then China will respect the human rights of the Taiwanese people, but if the u.s uses tactical nukes on PLA forces just like what they are preparing to do and when that happens and the Taiwanese people cheering on and supports the u.s in committing another Hiroshima against China, then all bets if off.

When you see PLA forces decimated by u.s tactical nukes I don't see public opinion in China will supports the PLA treating Taiwanese with kids gloves. And the scenario you describe above might well happen

Earlier in this thread, someone posted a study by the Atlantic Council (closest thing to an official US national security think tank) evaluating different ways for the US to use nukes when AR happens. Their implicit recommendation was to let PLA forces land and gather on Taiwan, then use nukes on concentrations of PLA forces in Taiwan when they are on the verge of victory. In other words, the US plan is to nuke the Taiwanese along with the PLA, so it's unlikely there will be many Taiwanese celebrating when that happens.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Earlier in this thread, someone posted a study by the Atlantic Council (closest thing to an official US national security think tank) evaluating different ways for the US to use nukes when AR happens. Their implicit recommendation was to let PLA forces land and gather on Taiwan, then use nukes on concentrations of PLA forces in Taiwan when they are on the verge of victory. In other words, the US plan is to nuke the Taiwanese along with the PLA, so it's unlikely there will be many Taiwanese celebrating when that happens.
It’s a dumb idea because the retaliatory nuclear strike would be Guam lol. You can take a guess at who can regenerate their positions faster. These discussions of nuclear contingencies are pointless. About the only conversation involving nukes that has any meaningful utility is how the threat of their uses informs military delimitations and political bargaining in the conflict scenario tree.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
lol don’t think that your own population won’t dissent to the wanton slaughter of supposed kinsmen. Right to rule matters. It’s not all about hard power.


The fastest way is to get a surrender. Razing everything to the ground doesn’t do that (no one in Gaza is surrendering just because Israel decided to smash everything). It doesn’t even make sense from the standpoint of holding territory because you need the civilian infrastructure to support your own presence. You’re talking lazy nonsense right now.
Chinese civil wars are the most brutal of all.

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I see the logic. attacking the civilian infrastructure so you can offer relief back to them as part of a surrender deal isn't so bad. if the PLA is the only source of food, water and fuel, they should understand that blowing up PLA logistics = blowing up their own logistics.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Chinese civil wars are the most brutal of all.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I see the logic. attacking the civilian infrastructure so you can offer relief back to them as part of a surrender deal isn't so bad. if the PLA is the only source of food, water and fuel, they should understand that blowing up PLA logistics = blowing up their own logistics.
Once again, the invading forces also need the infrastructure to hold their position. The point is not enemy destruction. It’s positional capture.
 
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