antiterror13
Brigadier
not in SSN and SSBN though
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
not in SSN and SSBN though
plawolf
Lieutenant General
20 years is a hell of a long time in Chinese military development terms. In 20 years the PLAN went from having its first 052Cs entering service to today.
China didn’t massively expand its nuclear submarine production yard at Huludao for lolz. All indications are that they are on the cusp of having a truly competitive SSN and SSBN class ready for mass production. Once the first boats of the class are in the water and proves their capabilities, I fully expect the PLAN sub-surface fleet to undergo a similar quantum leap in quality and quantity as its surface fleet did in the last couple of decades, which will not take 20 years to come to fruition.
This is also at a time when the US seems to be systemically choking on every major program, be it civilian or military. Suggesting a deep and wide decay in its core engineering capabilities across the board that has reached critical mass.
It would take an incredibly brave and/or foolish person to bet on the US being able to win the next gen competition against China with current realities and trends.
Looks like 3 SSN per year now.
So that would be an extra 60 in the next 20 years.
In comparison, the US fleet looks like 50-60 SSN in total size in 20 years.
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In terms of SSBN, the US will be at 10 boats. China already is at 10? boats, from what I can see.
This trend will only worsen for the imperialists. The way I see it, the last true vestige of industrial power they have is via SpaceX. Even pharma has massively outsourced their manufacturing. Not sure what China's counter would be for Starlink and Starshield.
TBF, I believe we should also take the purported SSK-Ns into account as a complementary yet potent force to the PLAN's true SSN fleet.
These SSK-Ns can focus within and around the 1IC, thus allowing those true SSNs to prowl the high seas around the 2IC and far beyond.
This may result in the PLAN acquiring fewer SSNs than the USN in total.
However, I'll be absolutely welcoming to the prospect/possibility where the PLAN also operates similar number of SSNs as their American counterpart (that is, as long as without all the mess that's happening with their SSN's readiness rates and without emptying China's war chest, of course).
The USN currently operates 14 Ohio SSBNs, with plans to procure at least 12 Columbia SSBNs to gradually replace them.
Sure, that number does sound low - But had not been the USSR disintegrating in 1991, the USN actually planned for a total of 24(!) such boats to be built.
In the meantime, China has around 6 094/A SSBNs in active service, with a sole 092 SSBN living off its remaining lifespan as a training boat today. There's also a purported 2 094B units planned for construction within these 5 years that will be armed with either the improved variant of the JL-2 or the JL-3.
Plus, counting on the potential capability for newer/future PLAN SSBNs to switch to-and-from the SSGN role by merely swapping individual SLBMs with multipack VLS tubes (and vice-versa) - If not being further modified into specialized combat platforms like the Jimmy Carter or Belgorod* - Perhaps China will end up building more SSBN hulls than what we've originally envisioned them to do.
This hasn't yet include the rapidly heating-up nuclear arms race happening right now. China could (and should) realistically demand a larger number of SSBNs to carry an ever growing number of nuclear warheads for China's enhaced sea-based nuclear deterrence. So there's that.
(*Additional note: Newer/future Chinese SSNs can also be modified for similar roles, if their hulls become big enough to support such modifications.)
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It is important to learn to read American's words. After all, words are just words, it is why words being spewed out that matters. We know US has very limited intelligence on China, but they do know their own stuff very well. It is likely that the 2027 is thrown out not based on their reading of China, but the reading on their own military. They likely feel by 2027 their military would be inadequate to stop PLAN launching attacks. If they cannot hold it, it is logical China should launch their attack when they are weakest. Hence they estimate PLA will attack in 2027 when they are weak. This is how human psychology works, we measure other's intention based on our own assessment in other's position. This leads to a psychological phenomenon of projection.
But this kind of logic is not how the world function. Other people act based on their own reasoning, not how you act in their shoes. For one, China does not have full intelligence on US, but they do have on their own. So what China estimate might differ wildly. China will act when they think they are appropriately strong to take on their imagined power of US. Furthermore, Chinese are not the type to act right when they have the upper hand, like American thinkers. Chinese act when they exhaust alternatives, from waiting out for bigger advantage, to non-military methods. Therefore I don't think 2027 has any merits on how China actually acts. The date tell you more about US than China.
When 2027 hits, China might indeed have the upper hand, but they still have to weight their options carefully. Perhaps they can wait til the advantage is even bigger, until to the point waiting no longer make a meaningful difference to their chances, then they would strike. Alternatively, perhaps by 2027 political climate might favor diplomatic solution on Taiwan, then change in military advantage becomes meaningless. Neither factors are accounted by American thinkers, and frankly they cannot account for it due to limited information.
SSK already satuate first chain. SSKN is likely for contest 2nd chain. SSN is there to keep American at bay in the vast Pacifics.
do you guy think if taiwan "issue" happen PLA will "do things" similar as western/us/anti-china reddit sub often predict ?
such as : humane war avoid civilian harms , only target military target allow enemy use every dirty trick available to fight back and slow down PLA (just like what ukrainian did) buy time for US/west support ?
personally you can call me crazy and insane but im hoping china/pla will not do that
im in favor of do thing in brutal way for quick success : take the island for nuclear submarine base break 1st island chain
not people , infrastructure , semi conductor industry or anything else may cause the "process" slow down
personally i think having few milions of "could be traitor" hongkonger already enough for china to deal with , no point accept ~30 milion more
infrastructure and the need for people living on that island also doesn't matter , china can refill the population and rebuild all infrastructure in no time
such as : humane war avoid civilian harms , only target military target allow enemy use every dirty trick available to fight back and slow down PLA (just like what ukrainian did) buy time for US/west support ?
personally you can call me crazy and insane but im hoping china/pla will not do that
im in favor of do thing in brutal way for quick success : take the island for nuclear submarine base break 1st island chain
not people , infrastructure , semi conductor industry or anything else may cause the "process" slow down
personally i think having few milions of "could be traitor" hongkonger already enough for china to deal with , no point accept ~30 milion more
infrastructure and the need for people living on that island also doesn't matter , china can refill the population and rebuild all infrastructure in no time
If you’re not willing to integrate the population back into the nation then don’t invade. Indiscriminate murder tends to motivate more resistance, not less. Some people forget the point of rule is not control or victory at any and all costs.