PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

CMP said:

Is there any likelihood North Korea would mobilize? Not to wage war necessarily, but to keep South Korea and US forces in South Korea tied down and unable to focus on Taiwan?

Click to expand...

Yes most likely, if any country including the US decides to invade Chinese territory which includes taiwan. then north korea is treaty bound to fight on China side, article 2 of the sino-north Korean treaty of friendship, co-operation and mutual assistance is similar to NATO article 5

​

CMP said:

Is there any likelihood North Korea would mobilize? Not to wage war necessarily, but to keep South Korea and US forces in South Korea tied down and unable to focus on Taiwan?

Click to expand...

Kim would immediately invade S.Korea the moment Taiwan AR happened. He eagerly awaits this opportunity. I would probably say that Kim is even more eager than Xi himself for AR to happen because that would allow him to go on to take SK with full Chinese support.

CMP said:

Is there any likelihood North Korea would mobilize? Not to wage war necessarily, but to keep South Korea and US forces in South Korea tied down and unable to focus on Taiwan?

Click to expand...

I think it would be likely the case, especially if China ask him

Overbom said:

Kim would immediately invade S.Korea the moment Taiwan AR happened. He eagerly awaits this opportunity. I would probably say that Kim is even more eager than Xi himself for AR to happen because that would allow him to go on to take SK with full Chinese support.

Click to expand...

Unless SK joins the war on the side of US, they should be left alone. Following the US defeat in the region, SK would naturally not allow US forces back in the peninsula.

Overbom said:

Kim would immediately invade S.Korea the moment Taiwan AR happened. He eagerly awaits this opportunity. I would probably say that Kim is even more eager than Xi himself for AR to happen because that would allow him to go on to take SK with full Chinese support.

Click to expand...

If SK do not directly intervene on the side of the US, will China really join in a conventional war against SK? I can see US positions getting bombed by Chinese assets, but I question whether that will lead to a kinetic response from SK, or whether it will justify a rekindle of the Korean war

FriedRiceNSpice said:

Unless SK joins the war on the side of US, they should be left alone. Following the US defeat in the region, SK would naturally not allow US forces back in the peninsula.

Click to expand...

I previously would have agreed with you, but now I think SK will contribute vital ISR regardless if it is involved with any shooting and information matters more than bullets these days. Trying to stop them non-kinetically seems unlikely to succeed (especially given the high demand for EW assets elsewhere), and leaving them alone to transmit all sorts of intel on PLAAF sorties, PLAN task forces, PLARF launches, etc, doesn't seem very wise. How are you supposed to wage informatized warfare if the enemy can see everything you're doing?

On the other hand, shelling Seoul with good old fashioned tube artillery is cheap and uses platforms which aren't likely to be needed elsewhere.

Overbom said:

Kim would immediately invade S.Korea the moment Taiwan AR happened. He eagerly awaits this opportunity. I would probably say that Kim is even more eager than Xi himself for AR to happen because that would allow him to go on to take SK with full Chinese support.

Click to expand...

If China is winning, then is there any need for North Korea to restart a Korean war? In the aftermath of a Chinese win, the US position in South Korea is fatally undermined, at no cost or risk to North Korea.

But if China is losing, then North Korea faces the prospect of losing its economic lifeline, and knows it will be next.

From China's perspective, a ground war in the Korean peninsula plays to China's strengths. The worse case scenario is a grinding war of attrition and a stalemate.

The best case scenario is the Chinese Army conquering South Korea and marching thousands of US soldiers into POW camps.

The more that South Korea supports the USA, the more likely it is that there is a Korean peninsula ground war, which both the US and South Korea don't want.

EDIT

Come to think of it, North Korea could get away with limited, sporadic attacks because the US/SK really don't want to get into a ground war with NK and China.

Korean reunification and Chinese reunification have a common denominator which is US interference. I have no doubt SK will be pulled in with ISR or even SK bases used to launch support assets even against SK's willpower, SK has no spine to stand up to US power.

Phead128 said:

Korean reunification and Chinese reunification have a common denominator which is US interference. I

Click to expand...

Korean reunification under any scenario is not in China's interests. If SK is foolish enough to join the US in any armed aggression against China, then a pro-China regime needs to be installed in the South.

I think that if AR kicks off and SK isn’t directly involved, China will benefit massively if NK does not attack SK, but instead Japan, which will almost certainly be involved in the fight alongside their American masters.

That is how I see China playing the NK card, to move PLA assets into NK to attack the Japanese mainland from a vector the Japanese and Americans will not expect and not be prepared to effectively deal with (both in terms of variety of weapons as well as quantity).

SK will need to remain neutral or they will get turned into a new Ukraine, and that’s if they are lucky.