PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf said:

I think that if AR kicks off and SK isn’t directly involved, China will benefit massively if NK does not attack SK, but instead Japan, which will almost certainly be involved in the fight alongside their American masters.

That is how I see China playing the NK card, to move PLA assets into NK to attack the Japanese mainland from a vector the Japanese and Americans will not expect and not be prepared to effectively deal with (both in terms of variety of weapons as well as quantity).

SK will need to remain neutral or they will get turned into a new Ukraine, and that’s if they are lucky.

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It's enough if North Korea (or Russia) allows China to use Korean airspace to send missiles and planes into Japan.

I don't think NK has enough conventional assets to do much damage to Japan. And NK is only going to try reunification if China is winning or China fights with them on the peninsula. They will need someone to protect them from US retaliation

Minm said:

It's enough if North Korea (or Russia) allows China to use Korean airspace to send missiles and planes into Japan.

I don't think NK has enough conventional assets to do much damage to Japan. And NK is only going to try reunification if China is winning or China fights with them on the peninsula. They will need someone to protect them from US retaliation

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Against the Anglos, you cannot show any hesitation or restraint, as that will only be interpreted as fear and weakness and invite aggression from.

If China only overflies NK, then it creates enough doubt for there to be a risk that SK might sleepwalk into the war without realising, or more likely, get dragged in by America without realising.

But PLA forces moving into NK in strength and attacking Japan from NK territory will make it impossible to deny that any SK involvement would lead to a join NK-Chinese ground invasion.

You also need to remember that America only has a token ground presence in SK. For America to be able to effectively contribute to a full on ground war against NK and China in Korea would require a massive sea based deployment of U.S. ground forces to SK. A deployment that would be basically impossible in the face of PLA air and missile attacks from mainland China and NK territory. Especially with massive missile and drone spam of the Japanese home islands and especially its port infrastructure facing Korea.

Distance matters, logistics matters. Overflying NK territory is vastly less efficient that being able to attack directly from NK territory. Overflying NK would also require the PLAAF long range strikers and tankers, who would be stretched as things are. Whereas direct deployment would utilise ground based missiles and bring shorter ranged fighters like the J10 into the mix.

Without the ability to sea lift massive amount of US ground forces and supplies, any ground war in Korea will only end one way.

In war, surprise and audacity are critically important assets, and if China can effectively use that, it can potentially force SK to sit out, even in a grey zone intel sharing fields, because of the overwhelming strategic disadvantage they will be trapped in, and the devastating consequences of being pulled into the war while so compromised.

My expectation is that in a hypothetical war there is basically zero chance South Korea will join the US alliance. Japan and Phillippines possibly will and that is something the PRC should assume. For a country like South Korea that shares a land border with a hostile Chinese client state, going to war with China would be very stupid. They would be inevitably overrun given the bulk of the PLA ground forces will not be engaged in Taiwan. Even if the US defense of Taiwan is successful, South Korea would be wiped off the map regardless (could even see a Taiwan for South Korea exchange deal in that case).

For South Korea to stay out of the war, its forces need to turn off all radars and let PLA to bomb US forces in SK freely.

Why do we pretend South Korea has a choice? When is the last time South Korea government showed any agency, especially regarding military topics? At best China can make some deals with South Korean chaebols, for what happens after reunification (Taiwan and/or Korea).

South Korea ultimately does not have control over its own military. All of their key political decision makers are leveraged US puppets and the South Korean military worships the US military so they'd sooner overthrow their own government than defy the US.

coolgod said:

Why do we pretend South Korea has a choice? When is the last time South Korea government showed any agency, especially regarding military topics? At best China can make some deals with South Korean chaebols, for what happens after reunification (Taiwan and/or Korea).

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Both SK and Japan has complete agency about their foreign policy. They can easily impose a govt decree to kick out US forces in heart bit. Check how a weakling like Niger did it.

SK and Japan just have a worldview of western worship where everything US and western is seen as superior and they feel happy to be pawn of the US. You can talk to any South Korean about how they view US compared to China and their distorted view is quite apparent.

SK also feel China to be huge threat cause they think inferior Chinese are rising up and they don't like that one bit. They want US to be in SK not for North Korea, but for China.

Its not a surprising worldview when even ethnic Chinese Hong Kongers and Taiwanese have that kind of worldview. Its just a matter of how wealthy and powerful China can be. If China becomes as wealthy as western europe and becomes superior to SK and Japan in every way, you will see an automatic transformation in worldview and subsequent change in foreign policy.

plawolf said:

But PLA forces moving into NK in strength and attacking Japan from NK territory will make it impossible to deny that any SK involvement would lead to a join NK-Chinese ground invasion.

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Presence of PLA in NK could conversely increase the likelihood of SK caving in to US pressure. Likewise, using NK airspace would likely increase likelihood of US utilizing SK airspace and/or airbases. There is little advantage for PLA to be gained to involving NK to any degree, as US has more to gain by utilizing SK airspace / bases than China from NK.

vincent said:

For South Korea to stay out of the war, its forces need to turn off all radars and let PLA to bomb US forces in SK freely.

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If the South Koreans don't comply, and the PLA attacks South Korea pre-emptively as a result, how could this be legally and morally justified? Surely, there's no reason for China to fight South Korea if they are not prepared to initiate hostilities.

5unrise said:

If the South Koreans don't comply, and the PLA attacks South Korea pre-emptively as a result, how could this be legally and morally justified? Surely, there's no reason for China to fight South Korea if they are not prepared to initiate hostilities.

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There are American troops in South Korea and they are treaty allies that are bound to share ISR information.